NJ📍| Elections & Politics | Researcher 📊 | Political Humor & Commentary 🎙️ | ET 🗳️ | No Hate, All Jokes💙 | Progressive Dem 🌳 | Opinions are my own
NJ
Joined October 2020
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Trump +9 NC-11 is at Cooper +15. That would translate to a Cooper +24 win statewide. Which anything remotely close to that would certainly break the North Carolina gerrymander.
Joe retweeted
PollVault/Emerson poll | 10/12-10/14 LV
US House 2026 | North Carolina’s 11th congressional district (Trump +9 | 2024)
🟦Jamie Ager 56%
🟥Jennifer Balkcom 43%
——
US Senate North Carolina 2026 (NC-11)
🟦Roy Cooper +15 (54-39-3)
Joe retweeted
PollVault/Emerson poll | 10/12-10/14
US House 2026 | Michigan’s 7th congressional district
(Trump +1, Barrett +4)
🟦William Lawrence 53%
🟥Tom Barrett 45% (incumbent)
——
US Senate Michigan (MI-7)
🟦El-Sayed +11 (52-41)
—
Michigan Governor (MI-7)
🟦Benson +13 (53-40)
Joe retweeted
PollVault/Emerson poll | 10/12-10/14
US House 2026 | Arizona’s 2nd congressional district
(Trump +15 | 2024)
🟦Jonathan Nez 50%
🟥Eli Crane 48% (incumbent)
——
Arizona Governor 2026 (AZ-02)
🟥Andy Biggs +3
Joe retweeted
If you type in jimrisch.com this webpage appears.
Jim Risch is the Senator from Idaho who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
.@KareemRifai says the allegations against a gay, closeted US Senator are an “October surprise” that will shake up a Senate race.
Joe retweeted
JUST IN: The Democratic House Majority PAC drops another $61 million across 46 House races:
#FL25 $4,526,717
#MI07 $3,601,866
#MI10 $3,177,828
#FL22 $2,546,734
#PA01 $2,467,544
#NC01 $2,412,100
#TX34 $2,027,711
#PA07 $2,002,919
#ME02 $1,885,434
#AZ01 $1,828,114
#WA03 $1,813,747
#VA01 $1,776,773
#CA22 $1,719,982
#OH07 $1,716,070
#CO08 $1,691,455
#TX35 $1,486,518
#MI04 $1,482,371
#WI01 $1,469,949
#TX15 $1,439,066
#TX28 $1,364,156
#WI03 $1,347,720
#FL13 $1,212,588
#MT01 $1,205,934
#OH10 $1,120,073
#PA08 $1,076,024
#OH09 $1,075,012
#FL14 $955,684
#NC11 $946,359
#TX23 $901,439
#AKAL $775,396
#IA02 $773,120
#VA02 $770,980
#NJ07 $679,649
#KY06 $644,196
#OH15 $602,303
#CA13 $598,612
#NY17 $566,183
#AZ06 $557,396
#SC01 $530,737
#AZ02 $475,200
#IA03 $450,757
#PA10 $425,710
#NM02 $320,779
#CO05 $316,197
#NY04 $163,066
#IA01 $155,218
Joe retweeted
I FUCKING WARNED YOU GUYS
CALIFORNIA POLL
Governor Election
Xavier Becerra (D) 60%
Steve Hilton (R) 33%
7% undecided
CA LV, Oct. 17-19, n=1,000, +/-3%
Full: emersoncollegepolling.com/ca…
Watch: youtube.com/watch?v=qoVErv0Q…
Joe retweeted
Neil Bush, the brother of former President George W. Bush, says he voted for James Talarico in Texas.
Joe retweeted
Piping hot Texas early voting data (days 1-2) straight out of the oven from the incomparable @Thorongil16
TX IPEV IMPORTANT COUNTIES:
Day 2 was good for Dems, though significantly less so than Day 1. In 16 counties representative of the state, the implied 2024 partisanship is still well-left of where the first two days of EV were 2 years ago. If I had all of the remaining 238 counties the recalled vote would probably be something like Trump +6 (8 point shift left from 2024).
Best points for Dems: Hispanic voters (Hidalgo, Cameron)
Worst points for Dems: non-college whites (Hardin, Randall) are barely budging. But... their turnout is terrible so far.
Lots of non-voters that are skewing young/nonwhite.
White voters are really punching below their weight even in urban areas.
Indians in Collin/Fort Bend are possibly beginning to pop off in turnout/bluer recall.
More updates will be made - but here is where we are in day 2 of IPEV.
Interactive here:
claude.ai/artifact/QSaAiFYUj…
Joe retweeted
🚨 BREAKING: Roger Marshall dodges post-debate interview.
"He is no longer in the building."
