Founder @2FactorFinance @AmpleforthOrg | CEO Fragments https://xitter.cf/t.co/f4mPoheqip

San Francisco, CA
Joined July 2008
Evan Kuo 😇 retweeted
For 70 years the smart money sized with Kelly. Retail sized with vibes and 50x. Now, retail gets 1.33x bitcoin with no liquidation price.
Kelly-optimized leverage has arrived. For those who don’t already know, this is leverage that’s made to be held for long periods of time. Developed in 1956, Kelly sizing has been used by professional investors for decades to maximize long-term compounded growth. Regular investors never had an easy way to access it. Maintaining the leverage target took work, and financing was expensive. @2FactorFinance tackles both: it manages the leverage target and sources financing from investors who want stable yield instead of from shorts. Financing costs about 75% less than conventional alternatives, with no liquidations. Built to be held, not traded. They're backed by Coinbase Ventures and Pantera, and have also received support from Brian Armstrong. Their Points Program is now live. The top 10 on the final Season 1 leaderboard split 1 BTC, and your Season 1 Marks carry over into Season 2. Sign up through my link for a points boost: points.2factor.finance/k/rou…
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appreciate this shout @Route2FI this is the cycle where crypto people learn the phrase kelly-optimal 😅
Kelly-optimized leverage has arrived. For those who don’t already know, this is leverage that’s made to be held for long periods of time. Developed in 1956, Kelly sizing has been used by professional investors for decades to maximize long-term compounded growth. Regular investors never had an easy way to access it. Maintaining the leverage target took work, and financing was expensive. @2FactorFinance tackles both: it manages the leverage target and sources financing from investors who want stable yield instead of from shorts. Financing costs about 75% less than conventional alternatives, with no liquidations. Built to be held, not traded. They're backed by Coinbase Ventures and Pantera, and have also received support from Brian Armstrong. Their Points Program is now live. The top 10 on the final Season 1 leaderboard split 1 BTC, and your Season 1 Marks carry over into Season 2. Sign up through my link for a points boost: points.2factor.finance/k/rou…
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Evan Kuo 😇 retweeted
great overview of why tokenized stocks matter
Gave a talk at the @ns conference on tokenised stocks titled Capital Without Borders. It shows how buying a stock can now be as easy as ordering a takeaway and how I think this will change financial markets.
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Evan Kuo 😇 retweeted
Every leverage decision is a sizing decision. Kelly answered it in 1956. Too little and you leave growth on the table. Too much and volatility eats it. For BTC-Jr, the math landed on 1.33x.
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Evan Kuo 😇 retweeted
When I started Coinbase, getting a bank to work with us at all was nearly impossible. Now Citi is partnering with us to bring stablecoins to institutions. We’ve come a long way from 2012. Thank you @Citi.
We're bringing stablecoins into the banking system with @Citi. That means instant stablecoin acceptance for institutions - all on bank-grade, regulated infrastructure. The next step for stablecoins becoming everyday money.
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Evan Kuo 😇 retweeted
Traders oversize and so do products. 20x leverage is not conviction... It's a multiple that sits outside the growth-maximizing band and then charges you to hold it. 2Factor fixes this. We built Kelly-sized exposure on @base. First Bitcoin. Then stocks.
"every single trader out there seems to make the same mistake over and over again. their position size is probably two to ten times more than it should be." martin shkreli built a kelly criterion simulator to test exactly this. "most folks don't actually have an edge when they trade. but if they did, they're trading as if they had a 4x or 5x kelly edge." "if you run the simulator, you will go to zero each time." "even with a 60/40 edge on every trade you make, you'll go bust if you overbet." "and who has a 60/40 edge in the stock market? nobody has a 60/40 edge." even a real edge, sized wrong, still ends at zero. sizing is too commonly the part I see every trader consider second or third.
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Evan Kuo 😇 retweeted
Some bangers from the SEC today: 1) buybacks do not make a commodity token into a security 2) liquid staking tokens for commodities are not securities sec.gov/about/divisions-offi…
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Evan Kuo 😇 retweeted
feeling BULLISH!
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Evan Kuo 😇 retweeted
2Factor is live on @base in public beta. Kelly-optimized leverage for buy-and-hold investors, starting with base:0xcbb7c0000ab88b473b1f5afd9ef808440eed33bf. First Bitcoin, then stocks. 2factor.finance
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Evan Kuo 😇 retweeted
1. Stocks will all be tokenized 2. Bonds will all be tokenized 3. Funds will all be tokenized 4. Real estate will be tokenized 5. Private credit will be tokenized 6. Commodities will be tokenized 7. Treasuries will be tokenized 8. Art will be tokenized 9. Collectibles will be tokenized 10. Infrastructure will be tokenized 11. Insurance will be tokenized 12. Company shares will be issued onchain 13. Stablecoins will become the default rails for moving money 14. Every major financial institution will have an onchain product 15. Every major asset manager will have tokenized products 16. Financial markets will trade 24/7 17. Settlement will move from days to seconds 18. Ownership will become programmable 19. Collateral will become composable 20. Assets will move across borders without traditional financial plumbing 21. The distinction between crypto and finance will keep disappearing 22. Tokenized assets will become normal for the average investor 23. Billions of people will eventually interact with tokenized assets without even thinking about it 24. The majority of financial assets will eventually have an onchain representation 25. Tokenization will become so normal that we stop calling it tokenization
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Evan Kuo 😇 retweeted
A 3x lever sounds like a number. It is actually a time problem. Imagine carrying a machine that amplifies every movement you make. On a smooth road, that amplification can be useful. On a road full of sharp turns, the same machine can slowly destroy the journey even if the destination never changes. That is the problem @2FactorFinance is studying. Leverage does not live in isolation from volatility. Two drags accumulate over time: → Volatility drag from the path an asset takes → Financing drag from the capital supporting the exposure So the useful leverage range has to be engineered around the asset itself. That is why 2factor's research does not treat BTC, gold, and equities as interchangeable. At roughly 60% BTC volatility, the target junior exposure is about 1.33x. At roughly 16 to 19% equity volatility, the productive band can extend beyond 3x. Same concept. Different terrain. I find that distinction more interesting than simply asking how much leverage a product offers. And it explains why 2factor is building its structure around perpetual senior and junior tranches rather than relying on conventional short-side financing. The Marks program gives me a practical way to dig into that research rather than just read the headline. Season One ends at launch. The top 10 leaderboard accounts split 1 BTC in cbBTC, with the fixed curve ranging from 18.2% at rank 1 to 1.8% at rank 10. Marks cannot be transferred, have no cash value, and are not a claim on any token or asset. I am tracking my progress here: points.2factor.finance/r/gl4… If you're participating, share one asset you think needs a completely different leverage multiple from BTC, and explain why.
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Early days, but this is what kelly-optimal BTC looks like: - BTC +11.94% - cbBTC-Jr + 16.31% Note the down and sideways periods in the early part of the series. You can just hold through it. By design it's backtested (for positive drift assets) st — the marginal benefit of holding through rallies >> marginal cost of holding it through down-swings. @2FactorFinance @base #notfinancialadvice
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Excited to transition from R&D to scaling and full-time firefighting .. 😅
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Evan Kuo 😇 retweeted
Our latest research paper explores the growing connection between AI and digital assets and explains why broad AI adoption may drive new demand, utility and applications across the digital asset economy. blackrock.com/us/individual/…
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Nicely done!
Replying to @2FactorFinance
2Factor gives long-term holders moderate leverage they can hold indefinitely, at a fraction of what a leveraged ETF costs to carry. Built on @coinbase tokenized stocks, with leverage sourced from stable yield rather than from shorts. cryptobriefing.com/2factor-l…
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Evan Kuo 😇 retweeted
$6.2 Billion in TVL A new ATH
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Local currency stablecoin supply grew 3x over the past year ($50M → $150M), with 30+ local currencies live on @base today We will make every single local currency liquid, useful, and adopted on Base
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impressive
Very early days, but good traction so far.
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