AUGUST JOBS STRENGTH MAY HAVE BEEN OVERSTATED August payroll growth of 162K was boosted by unusually favorable seasonal adjustments. On an unadjusted basis, the economy added just 154K jobs, near 2025 levels. Using last year’s seasonal factor, August payroll growth would have been only around 15K. The distortion suggests August’s headline strength may be a weak benchmark for September, reinforcing the need to focus on underlying payroll trends.

Kevin Hassett questions why the Fed is raising rates, says it is due to an “unusually partisan Fed” and says the “market is worried, too,” about a Fed that is going to be “hiking unwisely”: “When I'm thinking about what future inflation is, then I look at the last three months of core.... When you annualize it, you know what the number is? 2%.... Right now I think that markets believe in future Fed credibility, but I think the argument that I would make if I were a governor is that if core is 2%, then why are we hiking?” “The other thing about the Fed, and you know how long I've been close friends with Kevin Warsh…, he's managing an unusually partisan Fed. That is a hard thing to do, but it can start with [Michael] Barr and Jay [Powell] not resigning. If you go back to 1913, when chairmen, when their term is up, they leave. The same has been true for vice chairs… So why are they sticking around if not to worry about what the future Fed is going to do?” “Geez, it seems like right now the data are saying we are heading in this forward direction and the Fed goes in the other direction, I'm worried about why they did that. I think the market is worried too because if you look today, then a lot of the people who weren't appointed by President Trump are giving speeches over the last couple of days saying we need a lot more hikes. And if they are going to be in control for two or three years, so if the short-term rate goes to 6% because they are hiking unwisely and then they keep it there for two or three years, the two-year rate, because of arbitrage conditions, it's going to be that. And so I think there is still some work to do to restore Fed independence. And I know that that is something that is high on the priority list for Kevin.” Source: Financial Markets Quality Conference at Georgetown's Psaros Center on 9/23: c-span.org/program/public-af…

Goldman throws in towel on no rate hikes: "We now expect a 25bp hike at the September FOMC meeting next week (vs. a hold previously). Additional hikes at later meetings are possible but are not our baseline. While today’s CPI report only raised our August core PCE forecast slightly to 0.26% and has not changed our fundamental inflation view, we think that the FOMC will want to avoid the market reaction that would likely follow from remaining on hold when the market is pricing a nearly 90% chance of a hike."

BofA on CPI: "Beyond its implications for next week's Fed decision, we do not view the CPI report as particularly informative about the underlying inflation trend. The upside surprise was driven largely by core services, which increased 0.33% m/m. Within core services, wireless telephone services surged 5.9% m/m, contributing roughly 10bp to core CPI. The increase likely reflects AT&T's retirement of certain unlimited plans and higher administrative fees, which should prove to be a one-off. In addition, airfares and lodging away from home, two historically volatile categories, contributed a combined 8bp to core CPI. Airfares in particular may have been boosted by higher oil prices. These effects should prove temporary and largely unwind over coming months."