
โฝ Numbers behind the beautiful game | ๐ง [email protected] | ๐น๏ธ Simulator, ๐ฐ Prize Money Lab and extra content ๐
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Can one country send SEVEN teams to the ๐ต Champions League? The rules allow it ๐คฏ
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England had six in 2025/26, a record
๐ The seventh needed a UCL winner from outside the Top 4 (Aston Villa)
๐ช๐ธ Spain are in the running for next season too
โถ๏ธ Full video on our YouTube channel, give us a follow:
youtu.be/LnDr6gxsqYs
Dinamo cuts the deficit behind Hajduk to one point, with a game in hand.
๐ 1st place probabilities:
61% ๐ญ๐ท Dinamo Zagreb (+11%)
31% ๐ญ๐ท Hajduk Split (-5%)
5% ๐ญ๐ท Rijeka (-3%)
2% ๐ญ๐ท Varaลพdin (-3%)
...
Projected seeding in ๐ UEL Q1.
Using projected final positions in domestic leagues/cups and end of season average 5y coefficients.
๐ Full projections for 2027/28 UEFA qualifiers available at football-md.com/qualifier-prโฆ
๐ฎ๐น AC Milan has guaranteed at least โฌ14.6m of ๐ฐ UEFA prize money this season, worst case scenario.
โฌ11.5m of that amount has already been paid out in September 2026.
Next payment comes on 20 November, and will include the match bonuses for points won in MD1-4. It will be at least โฌ0.45m, and could climb to โฌ0.9m if Milan beat ๐ญ๐บ Ferencvรกros in MD4.
In our single-outcome model we have ๐ฎ๐น Milan to finish 8th in ๐ UEL league phase with 16 pts. If it happens, it would bring them:
โช๏ธโฌ1.95m more from match bonuses (13 more pts)
โช๏ธโฌ2.2m from league ranking shares for 8th place (paid on 19 Feb 2027)
โช๏ธโฌ0.6m bonus for finishing in the Top 8 (paid on 19 Feb 2027)
โช๏ธโฌ1.75m for going straight into the R16 (paid on 26 Mar 2027)
And then if they go, for example, to the semi-final, the QF and SF bonuses would bring them additional +โฌ6.7m, both paid on 14 May 2027.
Our sims put ๐ฎ๐น Milan in the semi-final or further in 29% of seasons.
In June 2027 they will surely get the remaining 25% of the Value Pillar which is fixed โฌ2.45m.
In October 2027 the starting fee residual of โฌ0.17m is paid out.
Overall they'd get โฌ27.8m in the said scenario.
The average amount they get in our simulations is โฌ24.0m.
90% of outcomes finish between โฌ17.0m and โฌ40.2m on the season level.
๐ Full details on cash flow and prize money projections for ALL 237 teams available in our Prize Money Lab at football-md.com/prize-money-โฆ
๐ For the first time this season, AEK Larnaca become the top favorite to win ๐จ๐พ First Division!
This comes after ๐จ๐พ AEK's 2-0 win over defending champions ๐จ๐พ Omonia who now won only 3 of their opening 7 matches in the league.
๐ 1st place probabilities:
37% ๐จ๐พ AEK Larnaca (+13%)
35% ๐จ๐พ Omonia Nicosia (-17%)
16% ๐จ๐พ Apollon Limassol (+5%)
7% ๐จ๐พ Pafos (-2%)
3% ๐จ๐พ Aris Limassol (+1%)
2% ๐จ๐พ APOEL Nicosia (+1%)
...
๐ Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 225+ competitions available at football-md.com/simulator
๐จ Updated in real time
To finish Top 2 in ๐ต UCL league phase and avoid playing the other Top 2 team until the final:
57% ๐ช๐ธ Real Madrid
50% ๐ซ๐ท PSG
--
23% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Liverpool
23% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Arsenal
19% ๐ช๐ธ Barcelona
8% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Aston Villa
6% ๐ช๐ธ Betis
4% ๐ฉ๐ช Bayern Mรผnchen
3% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Manchester City
1% ๐ฉ๐ช Stuttgart
1% ๐ง๐ช Club Brugge
1% ๐ช๐ธ Atlรฉtico Madrid
1% ๐ฉ๐ช Dortmund
1% ๐ฎ๐น Como
...
If ๐ณ๐ด Bodรธ/Glimt do not win the ๐ณ๐ด Eliteserien title ๐, the seeding line in ๐ต UCL Playoff round would move one place down.
This is particularly of interest to ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Celtic and ๐ญ๐ท Dinamo Zagreb who would otherwise be projected to be in a close coefficient battle for the last seeded spot in this round!
๐ฉ๐ฐ Midtjylland (and potentially ๐ฉ๐ฐ FCK) are close to them with current coefficient as well, but they are projected to pick up much more points until the end of this season in ๐ข UECL than Celtic and Dinamo are in UEL.
๐ Full details on scenarios and projections for 2027/28 UEFA qualifiers available at football-md.com/qualifier-prโฆ
๐ก๏ธ Every team still unbeaten in its domestic league: 38 teams in 24 countries.
Country by country, from the shortest run to the longest, then the 9 runs that ended this week, ๐ช๐ธ Barcelona and ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Man City among them.
๐ Full team-level projections and scenarios available in our app on football-md.com
๐ต๐น Portugal's 2026/27 coefficient stands at 7.100, 4th in the one-year ranking.
๐ Club contributions (incl. UCL bonus pts):
๐ 30% ๐ต๐น Benfica
๐ต 28% ๐ต๐น Sporting CP
๐ข 20% ๐ต๐น Sporting Braga
๐ต 17% ๐ต๐น FC Porto
๐ 6% ๐ต๐น Torreense
๐ต UCL ๐ UEL ๐ข UECL
๐ Full UEFA coefficient rankings, projections and what-if scenarios for every association available at football-md.com/coefficients
๐ To qualify for EFL quarterfinal:
๐๏ธ Tuesday
70% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Bradford
30% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Peterborough
0.5% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Fleetwood Town
99.5% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Arsenal
๐๏ธ Wednesday
68% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Manchester City
32% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Brighton
51% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Bournemouth
49% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Aston Villa
61% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Fulham
39% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Crystal Palace
47% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Sunderland
53% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Brentford
65% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Liverpool
35% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Chelsea
๐๏ธ Thursday
54% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Everton
46% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Newcastle Utd
๐ Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 225+ competitions available at football-md.com/simulator
๐ธ๐ฐ DAC Dunajska Streda has had one of the most dominant starts in history of the Slovak league.
9-2-0 after 11 rounds, including 7 matches with 3+ scored goals.
โฝ Their league results so far:
๐ค 1-1 at ๐ธ๐ฐ Ruลพomberok
โ
2-0 vs ๐ธ๐ฐ Dukla Banskรก Bystrica
โ
3-0 at ๐ธ๐ฐ Komรกrno
โ
5-0 vs ๐ธ๐ฐ Podbrezovรก
โ
6-1 at ๐ธ๐ฐ Skalica
โ
2-0 vs ๐ธ๐ฐ Slovan Bratislava
โ
4-1 at ๐ธ๐ฐ AS Trenฤรญn
๐ค 2-2 vs ๐ธ๐ฐ Spartak Trnava
โ
3-0 at ๐ธ๐ฐ Zemplรญn Michalovce
โ
3-2 at ๐ธ๐ฐ ลฝilina
โ
5-0 vs ๐ธ๐ฐ Ruลพomberok
๐ 1st place probabilities:
77% ๐ธ๐ฐ DAC Dunajskรก Streda
15% ๐ธ๐ฐ Slovan Bratislava
4% ๐ธ๐ฐ Spartak Trnava
4% ๐ธ๐ฐ ลฝilina
๐ Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 225+ competitions available at football-md.com. ๐จ Updated in real time!
โ 4 more unbeaten runs ended on Monday night:
๐ฆ๐ฒ Noah (9-1-0), 1-2 at Ararat-Armenia
๐ง๐ฌ Ludogorets (8-2-0), 0-2 at CSKA Sofia
๐ต๐น Santa Clara (5-3-0), 1-2 v Benfica
๐จ๐พ Omonia (3-3-0), 0-2 at AEK Larnaca
38 teams have yet to lose a league match.
๐ง๐ฌ CSKA Sofia are now 12 games unbeaten, level with ๐ฉ๐ฐ Midtjylland, ๐จ๐ฟ Slavia Prague and ๐ธ๐ฎ Maribor.
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ The New Saints still lead the way, 14 league games unbeaten!
๐ Full team-level projections and scenarios available in our app on football-md.com
Univ Craiova moves within a point to Dinamo B.!
๐ 1st place probabilities:
49% ๐ท๐ด Univ Craiova (+12%)
31% ๐ท๐ด Dinamo Bucureศti (-6%)
9% ๐ท๐ด Rapid Bucureศti (-7%)
7% ๐ท๐ด Universitatea Cluj (+1%)
2% ๐ท๐ด FCSB
1% ๐ท๐ด CFR Cluj
0.3% ๐ท๐ด Petrolul Ploieศti
Galatasaray goes over 50% for the title!
๐ 1st place probabilities:
55% ๐น๐ท Galatasaray (+16%)
18% ๐น๐ท Fenerbahรงe (-17%)
14% ๐น๐ท Beลiktaล
11% ๐น๐ท Trabzonspor (+1%)
1% ๐น๐ท Amed
...
Midtjylland climbs to the top of Danish Superliga for the first time this season!
๐ 1st place probabilities:
52% ๐ฉ๐ฐ Midtjylland (+6%)
41% ๐ฉ๐ฐ FC Copenhagen (-5%)
4% ๐ฉ๐ฐ Nordsjรฆlland (-1%)
2% ๐ฉ๐ฐ Viborg (-1%)
1% ๐ฉ๐ฐ Brรธndby (+0.5%)
...
Motherwell ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ and Hibernian ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ have contributed the most to Scottish coefficient this season so far.
The two of them added 56.5% of overall ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ points combined.
๐ช๐ธ Elche took the biggest step away from the drop in the Big-5 leagues this weekend, ๐ช๐ธ Espanyol slid furthest towards it.
๐ Biggest drops in danger, chance of direct relegation:
-24% ๐ช๐ธ Elche (36% โ 12%)
-13% ๐ฉ๐ช Gladbach (59% โ 46%)
-12% ๐ช๐ธ Celta Vigo (20% โ 8%)
-11% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Fulham (37% โ 26%)
-10% ๐ฎ๐น Genoa (34% โ 24%)
๐ Biggest rises in danger:
+13% ๐ช๐ธ Espanyol (22% โ 35%)
+10% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Crystal Palace (28% โ 38%)
+10% ๐ช๐ธ Valencia (19% โ 29%)
+9% ๐ช๐ธ Mรกlaga (56% โ 65%)
+9% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Coventry City (39% โ 48%)
+9% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Manchester Utd (7% โ 16%)
๐ Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 225+ competitions available at football-md.com. ๐จ Updated in real time!

















