โšฝ Numbers behind the beautiful game | ๐Ÿ“ง [email protected] | ๐Ÿ•น๏ธ Simulator, ๐Ÿ’ฐ Prize Money Lab and extra content ๐Ÿ‘‡

Joined October 2023
Can one country send SEVEN teams to the ๐Ÿ”ต Champions League? The rules allow it ๐Ÿคฏ ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England had six in 2025/26, a record ๐Ÿ† The seventh needed a UCL winner from outside the Top 4 (Aston Villa) ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain are in the running for next season too โ–ถ๏ธ Full video on our YouTube channel, give us a follow: youtu.be/LnDr6gxsqYs
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Dinamo cuts the deficit behind Hajduk to one point, with a game in hand. ๐Ÿ† 1st place probabilities: 61% ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Dinamo Zagreb (+11%) 31% ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Hajduk Split (-5%) 5% ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Rijeka (-3%) 2% ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Varaลพdin (-3%) ...
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Projected seeding in ๐ŸŸ  UEL Q1. Using projected final positions in domestic leagues/cups and end of season average 5y coefficients. ๐Ÿ‘‰ Full projections for 2027/28 UEFA qualifiers available at football-md.com/qualifier-prโ€ฆ
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น AC Milan has guaranteed at least โ‚ฌ14.6m of ๐Ÿ’ฐ UEFA prize money this season, worst case scenario. โ‚ฌ11.5m of that amount has already been paid out in September 2026. Next payment comes on 20 November, and will include the match bonuses for points won in MD1-4. It will be at least โ‚ฌ0.45m, and could climb to โ‚ฌ0.9m if Milan beat ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Ferencvรกros in MD4. In our single-outcome model we have ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Milan to finish 8th in ๐ŸŸ  UEL league phase with 16 pts. If it happens, it would bring them: โ–ช๏ธโ‚ฌ1.95m more from match bonuses (13 more pts) โ–ช๏ธโ‚ฌ2.2m from league ranking shares for 8th place (paid on 19 Feb 2027) โ–ช๏ธโ‚ฌ0.6m bonus for finishing in the Top 8 (paid on 19 Feb 2027) โ–ช๏ธโ‚ฌ1.75m for going straight into the R16 (paid on 26 Mar 2027) And then if they go, for example, to the semi-final, the QF and SF bonuses would bring them additional +โ‚ฌ6.7m, both paid on 14 May 2027. Our sims put ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Milan in the semi-final or further in 29% of seasons. In June 2027 they will surely get the remaining 25% of the Value Pillar which is fixed โ‚ฌ2.45m. In October 2027 the starting fee residual of โ‚ฌ0.17m is paid out. Overall they'd get โ‚ฌ27.8m in the said scenario. The average amount they get in our simulations is โ‚ฌ24.0m. 90% of outcomes finish between โ‚ฌ17.0m and โ‚ฌ40.2m on the season level. ๐Ÿ‘‰ Full details on cash flow and prize money projections for ALL 237 teams available in our Prize Money Lab at football-md.com/prize-money-โ€ฆ
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๐Ÿ“ˆ For the first time this season, AEK Larnaca become the top favorite to win ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ First Division! This comes after ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ AEK's 2-0 win over defending champions ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ Omonia who now won only 3 of their opening 7 matches in the league. ๐Ÿ† 1st place probabilities: 37% ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ AEK Larnaca (+13%) 35% ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ Omonia Nicosia (-17%) 16% ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ Apollon Limassol (+5%) 7% ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ Pafos (-2%) 3% ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ Aris Limassol (+1%) 2% ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ APOEL Nicosia (+1%) ... ๐Ÿ‘‰ Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 225+ competitions available at football-md.com/simulator ๐Ÿšจ Updated in real time
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To finish Top 2 in ๐Ÿ”ต UCL league phase and avoid playing the other Top 2 team until the final: 57% ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Real Madrid 50% ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท PSG -- 23% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Liverpool 23% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Arsenal 19% ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Barcelona 8% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Aston Villa 6% ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Betis 4% ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Bayern Mรผnchen 3% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Manchester City 1% ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Stuttgart 1% ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Club Brugge 1% ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Atlรฉtico Madrid 1% ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Dortmund 1% ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Como ...
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If ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Bodรธ/Glimt do not win the ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Eliteserien title ๐Ÿ†, the seeding line in ๐Ÿ”ต UCL Playoff round would move one place down. This is particularly of interest to ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Celtic and ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Dinamo Zagreb who would otherwise be projected to be in a close coefficient battle for the last seeded spot in this round! ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Midtjylland (and potentially ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ FCK) are close to them with current coefficient as well, but they are projected to pick up much more points until the end of this season in ๐ŸŸข UECL than Celtic and Dinamo are in UEL. ๐Ÿ‘‰ Full details on scenarios and projections for 2027/28 UEFA qualifiers available at football-md.com/qualifier-prโ€ฆ
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๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ Every team still unbeaten in its domestic league: 38 teams in 24 countries. Country by country, from the shortest run to the longest, then the 9 runs that ended this week, ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Barcelona and ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Man City among them. ๐Ÿ‘‰ Full team-level projections and scenarios available in our app on football-md.com
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๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal's 2026/27 coefficient stands at 7.100, 4th in the one-year ranking. ๐Ÿ† Club contributions (incl. UCL bonus pts): ๐ŸŸ  30% ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Benfica ๐Ÿ”ต 28% ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Sporting CP ๐ŸŸข 20% ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Sporting Braga ๐Ÿ”ต 17% ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น FC Porto ๐ŸŸ  6% ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Torreense ๐Ÿ”ต UCL ๐ŸŸ  UEL ๐ŸŸข UECL ๐Ÿ‘‰ Full UEFA coefficient rankings, projections and what-if scenarios for every association available at football-md.com/coefficients
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๐Ÿ† To qualify for EFL quarterfinal: ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ Tuesday 70% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Bradford 30% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Peterborough 0.5% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Fleetwood Town 99.5% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Arsenal ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ Wednesday 68% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Manchester City 32% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Brighton 51% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Bournemouth 49% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Aston Villa 61% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Fulham 39% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Crystal Palace 47% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Sunderland 53% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Brentford 65% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Liverpool 35% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Chelsea ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ Thursday 54% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Everton 46% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Newcastle Utd ๐Ÿ‘‰ Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 225+ competitions available at football-md.com/simulator
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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ DAC Dunajska Streda has had one of the most dominant starts in history of the Slovak league. 9-2-0 after 11 rounds, including 7 matches with 3+ scored goals. โšฝ Their league results so far: ๐Ÿค 1-1 at ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Ruลพomberok โœ… 2-0 vs ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Dukla Banskรก Bystrica โœ… 3-0 at ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Komรกrno โœ… 5-0 vs ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Podbrezovรก โœ… 6-1 at ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Skalica โœ… 2-0 vs ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Slovan Bratislava โœ… 4-1 at ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ AS Trenฤรญn ๐Ÿค 2-2 vs ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Spartak Trnava โœ… 3-0 at ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Zemplรญn Michalovce โœ… 3-2 at ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ ลฝilina โœ… 5-0 vs ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Ruลพomberok ๐Ÿ† 1st place probabilities: 77% ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ DAC Dunajskรก Streda 15% ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Slovan Bratislava 4% ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Spartak Trnava 4% ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ ลฝilina ๐Ÿ‘‰ Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 225+ competitions available at football-md.com. ๐Ÿšจ Updated in real time!
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โŒ 4 more unbeaten runs ended on Monday night: ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Noah (9-1-0), 1-2 at Ararat-Armenia ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Ludogorets (8-2-0), 0-2 at CSKA Sofia ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Santa Clara (5-3-0), 1-2 v Benfica ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ Omonia (3-3-0), 0-2 at AEK Larnaca 38 teams have yet to lose a league match. ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ CSKA Sofia are now 12 games unbeaten, level with ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Midtjylland, ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Slavia Prague and ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Maribor. ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ The New Saints still lead the way, 14 league games unbeaten! ๐Ÿ‘‰ Full team-level projections and scenarios available in our app on football-md.com
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[Projected Top 3 in ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Ligue 1] IN: ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Rennes OUT: ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Lyon
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Univ Craiova moves within a point to Dinamo B.! ๐Ÿ† 1st place probabilities: 49% ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Univ Craiova (+12%) 31% ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Dinamo Bucureศ™ti (-6%) 9% ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Rapid Bucureศ™ti (-7%) 7% ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Universitatea Cluj (+1%) 2% ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด FCSB 1% ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด CFR Cluj 0.3% ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Petrolul Ploieศ™ti
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Galatasaray goes over 50% for the title! ๐Ÿ† 1st place probabilities: 55% ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Galatasaray (+16%) 18% ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Fenerbahรงe (-17%) 14% ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท BeลŸiktaลŸ 11% ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Trabzonspor (+1%) 1% ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Amed ...
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Galatasaray ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท wins the derby, Fenerbahรงe ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท trails 6 pts now!
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14,523
Midtjylland climbs to the top of Danish Superliga for the first time this season! ๐Ÿ† 1st place probabilities: 52% ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Midtjylland (+6%) 41% ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ FC Copenhagen (-5%) 4% ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Nordsjรฆlland (-1%) 2% ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Viborg (-1%) 1% ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Brรธndby (+0.5%) ...
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12,019
Motherwell ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ and Hibernian ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ have contributed the most to Scottish coefficient this season so far. The two of them added 56.5% of overall ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ points combined.
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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Elche took the biggest step away from the drop in the Big-5 leagues this weekend, ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Espanyol slid furthest towards it. ๐Ÿ“‰ Biggest drops in danger, chance of direct relegation: -24% ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Elche (36% โ†’ 12%) -13% ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Gladbach (59% โ†’ 46%) -12% ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Celta Vigo (20% โ†’ 8%) -11% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Fulham (37% โ†’ 26%) -10% ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Genoa (34% โ†’ 24%) ๐Ÿ“ˆ Biggest rises in danger: +13% ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Espanyol (22% โ†’ 35%) +10% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Crystal Palace (28% โ†’ 38%) +10% ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Valencia (19% โ†’ 29%) +9% ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Mรกlaga (56% โ†’ 65%) +9% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Coventry City (39% โ†’ 48%) +9% ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Manchester Utd (7% โ†’ 16%) ๐Ÿ‘‰ Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 225+ competitions available at football-md.com. ๐Ÿšจ Updated in real time!
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It's once again a two-horse race in Premijer Liga BiH! ๐Ÿ† 1st place probabilities: 57% ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Borac Banja Luka (+1%) 42% ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Hล K Zrinjski Mostar (-1%) 1% ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ FK Sarajevo
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