learner. thinker. serial founder. my virtual investing journal
Joined April 2021
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Foundermode Doc retweeted
The world’s most accomplished tech founders and business leaders are betting hundreds of billions on AI with extraordinary conviction. Meanwhile much of the investing world thinks they’re making a massive mistake. The irony is hard to ignore. An investment industry where very few have historically managed to beat a passive index is now questioning the judgment of the people building the technology and running the businesses that will put it to work. Maybe the investors are right. Maybe the builders are. But I can’t remember a time when the stakes were this high and the two sides saw the future so differently.
Foundermode Doc retweeted
$SMH $SOXX
Remaining bullish Semis
Longer-term uptrend remains in place, although it looks like the 40-WMA could be challenged. This is still a constructive chart with only last week's weakness standing out as a problem. 1 week does not make a trend so this week is crucial.
$NVDA $MU $QQQ $MRVL $AMD $NDX $SPX $AVGO $SKHY
Foundermode Doc retweeted
The camera panning from the clock at 0:07 to Pierce Brosnan.
Absolute cinema.
Foundermode Doc retweeted
Long time fren of ethereum:0x594daad7d77592a2b97b725a7ad59d7e188b5bfa Tommy Aaron and Logan Hooper our newest sponsored MMA fighter
One Apustaja fight legend and one upcoming
We’re built different
Foundermode Doc retweeted
The only memecoin you’ll see on fight shorts ethereum:0x594daad7d77592a2b97b725a7ad59d7e188b5bfa
Foundermode Doc retweeted
as you scroll your timeline, you're going to see a lot of victory-lapping
some people are genuinely deserving of kudos;
some are doing so disingenuously.
but it goes without saying that everyone is having a great time [or atleast pretending as if they are]
it can easily set an unrealistic precedence in your mind
that you need to catch every move, with maximum exposure, and without having taken a smidge of profit until the very pico-top
that your portfolio should be making new ATHs because most coins are up 20% in two days, and a few coins are up 100%+ in the past month
don't fall for the bait
don't find yourself comparing to others
it only ever ends one way.
I'm going to let you in on a little secret:
most people are upset.
- there are some people that were caught in shorts as the move ensued
- there are some that told themselves they would bid, and didn't
- some actually bid, but fell victim to the chop at some point
- a group of people bought and held through the chop, only to then capitulate for miniscule profit as the rally started
- some bought and held for the entire rally, but with small size
- and even if the trader we're referencing executed immaculately, they'd often still find a way to be discontent with their results; sulking about how obvious it was in hindsight, and how they wish they would've bet more.
that last one is an inescapable truth. every time you win a trade, that is always the feeling that follows. that never really goes away, either - you just get better at dealing with it.
I know the consensus is that green candles = CT is alive and loves eachother again
I tend to disagree; that is mostly smoke and mirrors. when you pullback the curtains, you realize that most are actually upset - even if they don't necessarily have anything to be upset about in reality.
often times, spite, pride, ego, and greed bring the worst out in people. the insufferable nature tends to multiply, not decrease.
the market heals in times of despair,
and it contracts viruses in manic environments.
many are not having a great time, but are hiding under the guise of cheering for higher prices in order to save face/reputation. only after the market sells off again do the cracks finally begin to show
most will keep up the facade in the meantime
I bring this up, for the sake of this post, in hopes that you don't allow that perceived 'perfection', en masse, to become an expectation for yourself.
don’t find yourself comparing to (deceitful) perfection
perfection is not a standard - it's a fallacy.
aim to be sufficient, and learn to be content.
that will prove to be more than enough over an extended period of time
*“Nobody wants to hear about getting rich over the course of a decade”*
your counterparty is largely incapable of doing that.
so much so, that they could [hypothetically] watch $BTC trade 700% higher over the course of three years, with the average pullback being -20% along the way, as we [again, hypothetically] watched dozens of memecoins run from $0 -> Billions based on the thesis that 'the cat pops / the dog has a hat / hot air rises', only to cope with their liquidation emails with "that was the worst bullmarket ever; it's not my fault I lost everything. the old guys traded against plumbers!"
hypothetically speaking, ofcourse…
;)
a whopping majority of your counterparty could watch Bitcoin go to $1Mil, cheer along way, and still manage to lose it all on the pullback to 600k.
this is simply how markets work, because that's how they've always worked.
it's not a CT thing; it's just a thing.
remember this, deep in your core.
you'll need this sensibility about you for when the mania is truly persistent.
simply do your best in the meantime, because it's all you can do.
thank yourself later.
Foundermode Doc retweeted
700,000 strong. Thank you. 🫡
To celebrate, we’re giving 3 people a free year on our most popular plan.
To enter: Repost, like & drop your favorite ticker below.
Contest closes 8/21 at market close, winners announced that evening 🎉
Foundermode Doc retweeted
saw lots of ppl calling memory top just based on charts alone, but i just dont see how it can possibly top when all the memory companies are literally sold out for the rest of the year and its forecast for 27 to be even tighter.
i think memory is going to have another parabolic leg, am long $MU
Foundermode Doc retweeted
SK Hynix, Micron, $MU, and Samsung have reportedly sold out and allocated their total DRAM and High Bandwidth Memory production capacity for 2027, per Digitimes.
Foundermode Doc retweeted
JUST IN: Jim Cramer has said he's reportedly selling all his Bitcoin, per CoinDesk
Foundermode Doc retweeted
Five straight quarters of triple digit revenue growth since IPO...
Not something you see everyday 🌶️ $CRWV
Foundermode Doc retweeted
Crypto is FINISHED!
But whenever something is ending, something else is beginning. Let's see what - the chart is TOTALES (all cryptos excluding BTC and stables).
We will study:
1. Ichimoku: the only indicator that projects something in the future, not only the past
2. The RSI: the only oscilator that can bring similarities with 2021/22
3. The BIG gains: after the reversal, it doesn't last that much until the biggest move starts
4. The psychology: the one that will wreck even the ones who will make millions
1. Ichimoku
- every bear market cycle, after the kumo cloud starts to thicken, the reversal is about to start
- the chikou span (not in the pic) is actually meeting the price from February (BIG volatility move incoming - I think up, then correct again hard)
2. The RSI story
- you haven't got any similiarities in 2018, but you can find them in 2021/22, with some caveats
- the fastest push with the most gains was into 1. position on the RSI, from COVID to 2021, and from Oct 2023 to March 2024
- after that we had 2 more pushes on the RSI, with a 5th wave and the corrective movements (sideways, no gains, distribution)
- same at the bottom: 3 pushes, no downside pressure (sideways, no more gains for sellers, accumulation)
CAVEATS: the past cannot predict the future, but it can help you see similarities with these caveats
- the 3 pushes to 2021 cycle top happened fast
- the 3 pushes to 2022 cycle bottom happened slow
as opposed to
- the 3 pushes to 2025 cycle top happened slow
- the 3 pushes to 2026 cycle bottom happened [...]
Market structure does not repeat, but it loves some alternation. Remeber this to future caveats we'll talk about.
3. The BIG gains
- they happened inside the first push of the RSI - the most powerfull delivered the fastest gains
- it doesn't mean that you could not make money afterwards, but it does mean that this is when you get out most of your money
- if the RSI story is a short one this time, remember that this comes fast and swift, when it comes
- the most money will come AFTER this big push - so I will be out early, just like 2024
4. The psychology - the MOST important part!
- everyone's expectations are now very low: doing LTF trading, "if it does a 3x I will sell all bro", " it cannot even to pump to 2022 lows bro" etc etc
- I had very low expectations (inventor of the halfcoin season theory) this cycle, mostly if I got 5-7x I got out most of my positions, some of them 15x'ed, others just 4x, some positions I kept for longer which was a mistake etc.
BUT
Now I got my expectations very high, and that's not the problem.
The problem imo is when those that are still here start making 30-40-50x on strong projects, even after we sell, what are we buying after bro? Imagine buying a 50 cent coin, it reaches 30$, you sell it all
Then you wait for a 60-70-80% correction to add again? or leave it alone and find other stuff that has not pumped? You just start diluting your profits?
You buy real estate? Its cycle is almost at the end also.. Start a small business? It's a big company world now and it is accelerating
NOTE: I have 10 years experience with small/medium businesses in Romania, I got out in 2024 when I saw this trend. I was trying to become big fast, or else be taken out of the market - this is a trend that will continue, FASTER!
Dealing with 3-5-7x was easy, cause I already knew the plan to reaccumulate later, like $LINK or $CRV or $VELO or so many other charts
How do you plan to remain in the market, in what, when, how, when your charts start doing 30-40-50-150x? I cannot even plan for that, really.
Give me 3-4-5-6x forever, correct, then head back to support, buy again, rinse repeat. It's easy. The hard part is the other one imo.. I cannot plan for after
That's why I'm writing this post, to remember points 1, 2 and 3, and because from 2024 there were high expectations in the market, now everyone's expectations got obliterated.
"I can't take it anymore.."
"Just give me break even bro.."
Remember this is NFA, this is for my personal education and learn from my mistakes, and maybe it helps you. It's free.
Use it or.. you know.. don't
Will update later.
- Bear Hitler
Foundermode Doc retweeted
Hard to even process -- a president selling market-moving information to banks and wealthy investors in advance of everyone else, and personally pocketing hundreds of millions of dollars from it. This alone is more worthy of impeachment than 100 Watergate cover-ups.
BREAKING: Trump Media has officially launched its new paid data service, providing faster access to Truth Social posts from President Trump.
The new service is called "Truth API" which gives firms "a direct, licensed, real-time feed of the platform’s most market-moving Truths," the company's CEO said in a press release.
The service reportedly costs as much as $100,000/month.
Foundermode Doc retweeted
Trump has said he is aiming to end US dependence on Chinese critical minerals by January 2027.
