@fourweekmba

Tech Executive and Analyst. Founder of FourWeekMBA, The Business Engineer & The AI Supercycle

 London, England
businessengineer.ai
Joined September 2015
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This completely changed how I see the AI industry. It blew my mind. I could hardly believe it!

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Apple's first touchscreen MacBook Pro starts at $2,899, the exact price Bloomberg reported a day earlier. 14-inch M5 Pro $2,899, 16-inch M5 Max $4,799. Tandem OLED, Dynamic Island, ships 6 Nov. @Apple #AI
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Who pays for SpaceX's AI boom? One customer, mostly. Its Q3 10-Q shows an unnamed AI-segment client at 34.5% of total revenue, about $5.0B of $14.6B by our math. A year ago it was under 10%. #SpaceX #AI #AI
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The $4.4B net income is SpaceX's company-wide figure, not the AI unit's. In the 10-Q segment table, Super Intelligence posted $431M of operating income vs a $1,722M loss a year earlier. SI was $16,444M of $19,593M quarterly capex, 84% by our arithmetic.
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The 10-Q does not name Customer B. SpaceX's May S-1 named one cloud customer: Anthropic agreed to pay $1.25B a month through May 2029, terminable by either party on 90 days' notice. A full quarter at that rate is $3.75B, by our arithmetic. We do not identify Customer B.
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How fast did Anthropic grow before its IPO? Full year vs full year, 2025 revenue was ~112x 2023's, per its S-1. Nvidia's comparable pre-IPO multiple: ~40x. Google ~17x, Facebook ~4.8x, SpaceX ~1.8x (our arithmetic from SEC filings). $NVDA @AnthropicAI @nvidia #IPO #AI
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Bloomberg's chart puts Anthropic's H1 2026 revenue at nearly 400x its full-year 2023 ($16,286M vs $41M, about 397x by our arithmetic). Comparing full years instead, $4,585M in 2025 vs $41M in 2023, gives about 112x, also our arithmetic.
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On the same full-year basis, by our arithmetic: Nvidia about 40x, Google about 17x, Facebook about 4.8x, SpaceX about 1.8x. Anthropic's 112x is about 2.8 times Nvidia's. Microsoft's 1986 prospectus predates the SEC's electronic archive, so we did not rebuild it.
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Google's Gemini 4 Carbon scores 59 on the AI Index v5, one point above Claude Opus 5.5, per Google's table. Introductory price: $2 / $10 per 1M tokens, half of Opus 5.5's $4 / $20. First access: a subset of cyber defenders. #AI
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Is Cognition worth more than Cursor? Investors have offered the Devin maker a $70B-$80B valuation, Business Insider reports. That's 46-67% above its $48B round just seven weeks ago. Talks are early. #AI #VentureCapital #AI
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How long does an AI chip last? Short seller Culper alleges Cerebras's wafers last 1.5-2.5 years. Cerebras's own filings moved its equipment life from 1.5-3 years (Dec 2025) to 3-5 years (Apr 2026). #AI #chips #Semiconductors #AI
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Microsoft is now selling the agent harness behind Copilot. Built at GitHub, it runs Copilot Code, Copilot Studio and VS Code and works with 20+ frontier models. Free in Foundry until Dec 1, then $0.0994 per vCPU-hour, plus model costs. #AIAgents #AI
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Who pays for AI's power? The US Energy Department offered Constellation up to $5B, conditional, to add ~1.1 GW at 8 nuclear plants. Google, Amazon and Meta have already contracted 1,110 MW of Constellation uprates (our sum). #AI #Nuclear #AI
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Half the cost, two points behind. GitHub says its new Copilot Fusion, which picks the AI models for each coding task, scored 60, within two points of Claude Code with Opus 5.5 Max, at about half the API cost per task. Agents now start 40%+ of GitHub pull requests.
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Anthropic's "$45B" SpaceX deal: SpaceX's filing gives $1.25B a month, and after 3 months either side can exit on 90 days' notice. We checked 8 AI figures against the documents: 3 hold up, the rest are ceilings, sums or wider scopes. #AI #AI
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Can a picture steer an AI's code? A Google DeepMind and Stanford paper says a red heart image moved Claude Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.4 from 0% to 100% recursive code on one task. The models' reasoning traces mostly didn't say why. #AI #AI
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Is every AI moat temporary? Token prices fell ~35% since June (Ramp, via Axios). Yet Anthropic's S-1 shows compute falling from 251% to 48% of revenue, and The Information reports existing-customer revenue up 9x. #AI #AIInfrastructure #AI
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Is AI shrinking the junior consultant? McKinsey, BCG and Bain just raised starting pay for the first time since 2022, per Management Consulted. $120,000 before an MBA, $200,000 after. McKinsey's 7.1% entry raise trails ~13% inflation. #AI #VentureCapital #AI
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Microsoft's most important strategic move isn't Project Polaris or MAI models. It's Frontier Tuning — and almost nobody is talking about it. 🧵
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This is the harness thesis: The model is replaceable. The orchestration layer — the agent framework, memory system, governance controls, accumulated context — is not. Microsoft controls the harness. The model is just fuel.
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12 months ago: "Being third in models is a feature." Today: building frontier models, fine-tuning platforms, healthcare AI with Mayo Clinic. Full analysis: businessengineer.ai/p/has-mi… #AI

Has Microsoft Just Entered the Frontier AI Race?

For the past eighteen months, The Business Engineer has been making one consistent structural argument about the agentic AI race: in the next two to three years, the durable competitive moat will not...

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