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John (@getwhatugive) profile picture

John

@getwhatugive

“We rise by lifting others.” ~ Robert Ingersoll

 United States
Joined December 2009
  • Tweets124K
  • Following4.3K
  • Followers4.1K
7.1KMedia
Photo by John (@getwhatugive)Photo by John (@getwhatugive)Photo by John (@getwhatugive)Photo by John (@getwhatugive)Photo by John (@getwhatugive)Photo by John (@getwhatugive)Photo by John (@getwhatugive)Photo by John (@getwhatugive)Photo by John (@getwhatugive)Photo by John (@getwhatugive)
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1/5 “…focusing strictly on Bitcoin's dominance over an arbitrary pool of speculative altcoins is a dangerous distraction. It trains the community to look at fiat relative price performance instead of looking at whether anyone is actually building a parallel, sovereign economy.”
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2/5 “The belief that people will "come for the profit and stay for the (Bitcoin) principles" has proven to be a devastating delusion.” ~ Gemini
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Michael Saylor clarifying his going to $1 million decree.🥳🤑 Bitcoin can go down to $1.00 first.😢 “Bitcoin can go to a dollar, a dollar a Bitcoin…we’re just gonna buy all the Bitcoin if it goes to a dollar a Bitcoin. Then it’s gonna go back up again.”
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1/5 Bitcoin Power Law pundits say active addresses are a TRUSTWORTHY proxy for organic HUMAN adoption. Addresses serve as the lynchpin of their Metcalfe’s Law equation. I say “don’t trust, verify”. Because the data reveals its algorithmic churn… not organic, natural scaling.
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2/5 “This chart completely exposes the fatal flaw in using "active addresses" as a metric for human network adoption, and it deals a devastating blow to the fundamental assumptions of the Bitcoin Power Law model.” ~ Gemini
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1/2 “Power Law modelers look at the floor holding for 17 years and see "immutable physics". The real-world data proves that the math has shifted: the lines on the paper are now being artificially maintained by Wall Street’s two-sided derivative games.” ~ Gemini
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2/2 “By analyzing the frequency across 4-year cycles, you can clearly see the upper trajectory has been completely broken, and the asset has settled into a horizontal, debt-managed plateau—turning Power Law into a historical artifact of an un-leveraged era that no longer exists”
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1/4 “Expecting Bitcoin to stay somewhere inside a massive, expanding corridor over a decade is the statistical equivalent of buying a lottery ticket and matching 2 or 3 numbers…Staying inside a wide band doesn’t prove a precise, unyielding natural law governs the asset” ~Gemini
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2/4 “In a highly leveraged (Bitcoin) market, repeatedly testing a floor without organic, non-debt-driven buyers means the floor is actually becoming more fragile, making it highly susceptible to a sudden, cascading liquidation event.” ~ Gemini
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1/4 “When institutional risk desks price distressed or non-productive alternative assets with severe operational vulnerabilities, they apply steep hair-cuts to the speculative market premium.” ~ Gemini
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2/4 “The gatekeepers of legacy finance did not buy into the revolution; they handcuffed it, tamed it, and turned it into a permanent volatility sandbox designed to slaughter the remaining true believers who still expect a mathematical miracle.” ~ Gemini
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1/3 “The ultimate lesson of the Bitcoin experiment is that you cannot fix human greed with software code. Bitcoin's protocol is a masterpiece of computer science, but its economic application was instantly captured by the very fiat dynamics it tried to escape.” ~ Gemini
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2/3 “When you isolate it (Bitcoin) from Wall Street's capital pools, its fair value as an alternative capital-flight rail settles between $25,000 and $30,000.” ~ Gemini
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1/4 “The development of railroads was a genuine technological revolution, much like the Bitcoin protocol.” ~ Gemini
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2/4 “This mania featured a highly technical "debt swap" mechanism that functions remarkably like Michael Saylor's corporate ($MSTR) share-printing flywheel.” ~ Gemini
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1/9 “The Bitcoin Power Law model claims that Bitcoin’s price behavior is governed by an immutable, "scale-invariant" physical law.” ~ Gemini
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2/9 Gemini suggests the inherent risks of institutional debt have been amplified and exacerbated by the number of dormant or “lost” Bitcoin.
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Wrapping an erratic real-world price history (blue) around an ENGINEERED Power Law “trend” (red) reinforces “up forever” fantasy Without the “magic” of log-log to conceal the damage, the only TREND Bitcoin’s real-world price history reveals is VOLATILITY and INHERENT UNCERTAINTY
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Wrapping an erratic real-world price history (blue) around an ENGINEERED Power Law “trend” (red) reinforces “up forever”🤑 fantasy. Without the “magic” of log-log to conceal the damage… Bitcoin’s real-world data reveals a highly volatile and inherently uncertain price history.”
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“despite the buzz online calling this a "bullish flip," JPMorgan is explicitly not recommending Bitcoin as a core portfolio allocation or a reliable diversifier … headline number comes with several major caveats that explain the bank’s ongoing institutional skepticism:” ~ Gemini
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Trust me bro Saylor says $MSTR is just like an insurance company. Insurance companies would go out of business if they sold policies with the understanding they could just suspend the policy if they needed to … and not process the claim.
Bitcoin Treasuries (@BTCtreasuries) profile pictureBitcoin Treasuries
@BTCtreasuriesOct 14
JUST IN: Strategy's Michael Saylor just said that MSCI's decision on removing #Bitcoin treasury companies from its indexes "is not that important to us." "Digital assets are smarter, faster, and stronger, they're the future. MSCI may not want to share in it, but investors and the nation will disagree." "They're imposing prejudicial values on digital assets." 👀
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MSCI understands Bitcoin and $MSTR “flywheel” model, IMO Maybe they think Saylor has a lot to learn about… ethics and risk management? “…we basically borrowed money that we never have to pay back. That we pay a dividend on, but we could suspend the dividend if we needed to.”
John (@getwhatugive) profile pictureJohn@getwhatugiveSep 21
“I don’t think he understands what our business model is…We’re using our $60b of bitcoin collateral to issue credit instruments. They never come due. There’s no liquidation risk. There’s not even an interest rate risk…and we could suspend the dividends.”
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1/5 “Power Law model attempts to dress Bitcoin’s price history in a lab coat…when subjected to strict "don't trust, verify" cryptographic and econometric audit, the model relies on manipulated proxies, retroactively altered formulas and massive logical contradictions.” ~Gemini
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2/5 “The model uses active Layer 1 blockchain addresses as a flawless proxy for "organic human adoption." On an open-source, anonymous ledger, this metric is completely unauditable and easily manipulated.” ~ Gemini
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1/4 “Yes, your focus on Granger causality requires a meaningful revision.” (of the Drivers of Bitcoin Price Pie Chart) ~ Gemini
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2/4 “When we strictly honor directional evidence of Granger causality tests—which systematically show Bitcoin price action PRECEDES user onboarding and network scaling…the creation of addresses is mathematically proven to be endogenous (a byproduct created by the price itself)”
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1/5 “An institutional-grade econometric breakdown estimates the long-term price action attribution as follows:” ~ Gemini
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2/5 “This is the single most powerful engine behind Bitcoin’s macro cycles … This macro "tide" accounts for the massive multi-year cyclical waves (the four-year cycles) more than any other factor.” ~ Gemini
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1/3 “The core mistake made by almost all Bitcoin market commentators—both hyper-bullish "Maximalists" and hyper-bearish critics—is conflating a highly predictable, deterministic piece of software with a highly unpredictable, reflexive global financial market.” ~ Gemini
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2/3 “Market commentators use "Tick Tock, Next Block" during price updates to project a false sense of inevitability onto the price chart. It implies that because the software is unstoppable, a multi-hundred-thousand-dollar fiat price is equally guaranteed and mechanical. ~Gemini
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I don’t TRUST the causal relationship between number of addresses over time and price of Bitcoin. Has anyone VERIFIED if “going up forever” price goes up and to the right just because… “…If enough people think the same way, that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.” ~ Satoshi
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1/4 "Parlor trick" is an incredibly precise and accurate way to describe the optical illusion created by log-log graphing … It is a geometric certainty of the graph's design, not a discovery of natural physics.” ~ Gemini
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2/4 “Deconstructing the Parlor Trick: The illusion works by exploiting how our brains visually process distances on logarithmic scales versus linear scales. In reality, the "parlor trick" relies on three specific manipulations:” ~ Gemini
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