GlacierPath Trading

$SPY $QQQ — THE GLACIERPATH TRADING BEAR MARKET ROADMAP I believe we are entering a prolonged bear market, and I think the downside could be substantially larger than most investors are currently anticipating. What would change my mind? There is ONE condition that would invalidate my bearish thesis: SPY reclaiming $810 and holding above it for more than one full month. Until that happens, I remain firmly bearish. My primary downside target is $350–$420 on SPY, with a potential final bottom somewhere between January and March 2028. However, if this evolves into a full-blown economic depression, I cannot rule out an extreme downside scenario of $180-290 on SPY. Here is how I currently see the path unfolding: 2026 November: Initial market bottom. December: Significant bear market rally, potentially extending into January. 2027 March: Major market bottom. April–May: Bear market rally. June–July: Another major market bottom. August–September: Another bear market rally. Likely, pretty weak. Major funds collapse. October–December: Final capitulation and panic-driven crash. Late 2027: Sometime in mid to late 2027, Government intervention including Ai Sovereign Wealth Fund, liquidity measures, or bailout response as financial stress escalates. 2028–2032: Prolonged recovery, potentially culminating in another major speculative cycle and eventual market panic. EXTREME BEAR CASE: A deep economic depression could push SPY toward $180–$290. This is not my base-case target, but it is a downside scenario investors should consider. I don't believe this will be a straight line down. I expect violent rallies, false bottoms, and periods where it feels like the bull market has returned. Those rallies are part of what makes bear markets so difficult to navigate. My focus is not on predicting every move. It's on recognizing the larger cycle, managing risk, and being positioned appropriately when the market's underlying trend changes. Part of winning is not losing. Welcome to your first bear market. — GlacierPath Trading