bitcoin:native is testing the ETF cost basis around $81K again. The same level capped the May rally before a deep drop, and caught last week's sweep from just below. A convincing close below it would put mid $70K levels back into play.

BTC treasury companies are in profit but barely buying. They hold $BTC at a cost basis of about $80K, and price has closed above it since September 18. In profit, buying can feed on itself: purchases lift price, price lifts their shares, and their shares fund more purchases.

$BTC is boxed in between $80K and $87K. Below, buyers refilled the bids at the ETF and treasury cost basis. Above, the top buyers' break-even, the main asks and the largest liquidation clusters share one zone. More on ETF flows, MSCI and altcoins in this week's Week On-chain.

Binance asks and the biggest liquidation clusters sit around $87K. The top buyers still cap $BTC price near the same levels. A daily close above that level with ETF inflows would show buyers absorbing the supply. More in this week's Week On Chain

The Q4 levels for bitcoin:native have held so far. Last month, together with @colin_basco and the @CoinbaseInsto team we put resistance at $87K to $87.8K in our Charting Crypto report. We read the data as near-term consolidation. Price stalled there and ranged below it ever since. A break out of the range is likely to spark significant volatility, although another overhead supply cluster sits around $90k. Read our full quarterly report below👇

ETF buyers came back in size yesterday. US spot bitcoin:native ETFs took in $663M, the most in a day since September, and all of it went into BlackRock's IBIT. That single day erased the funds' net outflows for October. Follow-through would confirm the demand is back.

Short-term profit-taking has weighed on bitcoin:native. Two weeks ago we flagged short-term holders in profit sending the largest share of exchange inflows in a year. This selling has weighed on price since. The flow has now eased back to its average yearly level.

Altcoin leverage is still running hot. Prices have pulled back since leverage peaked earlier this month, yet over 40% of large caps still sit near their highest leverage of the year. In mid caps, that share is at a yearly high. A deeper drop would put many longs at risk.

Bitcoin trades near $82k after a quiet week that held above $80k. The selling behind the early October slide eased, but spot and ETF buyers have not returned, while capital keeps moving into newer hands on-chain. Read the latest Market Pulse 👇 glassno.de/4ei5L8a

Weekend selling has hit altcoins hard. As fear from equities spills into crypto, the typical altcoin is down over 5%. If the weekend closes like this it would be the largest weekend drop since April. Since the bitcoin:native low in June, buying Friday and selling Sunday was profitable.

bitcoin:native sellers capitulated again yesterday. Every burst of loss selling came right at a local bottom: early August, mid-August and mid-September. Profit taking has slowed since the September high. If the pattern holds, yesterday's selling just above $80k would mark the floor.

Buyers kept refilling the bitcoin:native book today. The low timeframe view shows that the large bids that sat at $80k for the last week were filled and new large bids were placed, pushing price up systematically. Now we see the support level under $80k weakening again.

Bitcoin moved into an early recovery in Q3, even as the Fed resumed tightening. Our Q4 2026 Charting Crypto report with @CoinbaseInsto reads the data behind it. Its outlook: constructive, with reasons for near-term caution. Download the report: glassno.de/4s56RtH

bitcoin:native is sitting on support. However, underneath it a large cluster of long liquidations will be triggered. Another cluster sits around $75k. Overhead, shorts liquidations have piled up above $85k all week. The lower clusters currently appear more fragile than those above.

bitcoin:native is stuck under key cost basis levels. The buyers of the past two years break even above $88K, and the ETFs are net sellers again. The ETF cost basis near $81.5K has held twice so far. More on liquidation levels, macro and altcoins in this week's Week On-chain 👇

BTC is holding the ETF cost basis. That line sits near $81.5K, and every daily close for the last 3 weeks has held above it. A large block of bids waits just below. A break under this level could set off forced selling and deepen the drop.

The cost basis of investors that bought the top still caps BTC's upside. Holders who bought 1 to 2 years ago sold heavily as bitcoin:native rallied toward $88k, where the 6 to 12 month group breaks even. Price stalled just under it. That selling has since slowed considerably.

bitcoin:native has bounced off the ETF cost basis. Price spent most of this year below that level, and the May rally stalled right under it. It has now held twice as support around $81.5k. Below it, the next major level is the True Market Mean at $77.5k.