Groundbreaking Ideas - Thematic, Hidden Assets, and Micro-Cap Investing. Previously Equity Research at Bank of America & Wharton Alum
Joined May 2021
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The market is making three mistakes:
- Pricing AI as a technology cycle when it’s a credit cycle
- Watching growth rates while the cycle breaks on the second derivative
- Treating a frontier model loan book as though it were a diversified RPO backlog
Read about it below ⬇️
Groundbreaker retweeted
“We have spent the last 18 years describing the financial crisis as .. a black swan .. It was none of those things.”
It was “the scheduled mathematical consequence of loans that assumed perpetual appreciation.” AI “has rebuilt this exact structure.”
groundbrkr.com/p/the-teaser-…
Groundbreaker retweeted
To put this in more reassuring terms, senior Anthropic staff think the chance AI kills all humans within the next decade is approximately the chance the New York Jets make the playoffs
Groundbreaker retweeted
New - Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller tells me "of course" he used AI to write op-ed on Bessent & bond market
"There's a reason I moved from an English major to being an economics major," he says, "I'm not embarrassed by it"
No response from WSJ
notus.org/media/stanley-druc…
Groundbreaker retweeted
Something Sam Altman doesn't want you to know about him:
"I'm tired.
This is the coolest job in the world. I plan to do this for the rest of my career. But it's much harder than I have a way to explain to people."
My conversation with Sam Altman (@sama), CEO of OpenAI.
We discuss:
- Kimi, distillation, and open source
- OpenAI's compute bets
- The Hugging Face incident
- What happens after AGI
- Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence
- And much more
Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
4:10 The Race for Compute
14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident
16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI
23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs
29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI
35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next
44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI
51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons
Groundbreaker retweeted
Zuckerberg gave out $100M signing bonuses to build a super team of AI engineers, and they are now all stuck optimizing the algorithm to serve you slightly better ads while all excess compute gets sold to people building actual intelligence
