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Washington, D.C.
Joined January 2011
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Greg Ip retweeted
There's a lot to focus on right now, but "The richest man to ever live just spent $200 million to support the Republican Senate candidate in Texas, and his man lost by double-digits in a statewide wipeout" is a completely insane sentence.
Put another way, the most expensive US Senate race before 2020 was $200 million. *One guy* spent that amount in Texas, and it doesn't seem to have made any difference. It might have hurt in a kind of Streisand effect way, in that the spending level was seen as obscene to people sympathetic to the argument that billionaires shouldn't "buy" elections.
The implications here seem pretty interesting! Especially re the limits of billionaire political power and/or the diminishing returns of money in politics.
Greg Ip retweeted
The Dem caucuses in both houses of Congress will be more moderate next term than this one @greg_ip writes wsj.com/politics/elections/a…
Greg Ip retweeted
Practically no one read this when I published it a couple of months ago but I'm going to immodestly propose that everyone who wants to build a data center or whose livelihood depends on them getting built should read it now:
wsj.com/tech/ai/data-center-…
Greg Ip retweeted
One of the more interesting stories from yesterday will be how Florida and Texas - two states with similar political climates - ended up with such different results. A big part of that comes down to the GOP leadership in each. There were missteps in both, but...
One state kept at least a slight buffer of regional independence from the White House's political operations, succeeded in keeping sleaze like Fishback off its ticket, kept state and local government focused on relatively conventional conservative issues, and managed to keep enough Hispanic voters in the coalition to win.
The other state tried to turn itself into MAGA central, tried to import JD Vance style economic populism into a part of the country that wanted nothing to do with that, made sleaze like Paxton the face of its statewide campaign, and actively drove Hispanic voters (as well as other minorities as per Bo French) out of the coalition by sticking them in the eye in the months before the election.
Greg Ip retweeted
WSJ's @greg_ip : Health insurance is the sleeper inflation issue: wsj.com/finance/investing/he…
Greg Ip retweeted
a big reason why i expect the new congress’ agenda to feature a lot of “affordability” measures, by way of ACA premium subsidies, broader medicaid eligibility, and expanded tax credits.
Health insurance is the sleeper inflation issue. Premiums up 5%, contributions even more; could explain sub-par wage growth. Plus, thoughts on Bill Nordhaus; @jasonfurman and Goldman on AI in my newsletter today: wsj.com/finance/investing/he…
Greg Ip retweeted
It's been the trade since WWII. With wages frozen, the War Labor Board ruled in 1943 that employer insurance payments weren't wages, and the 1954 tax code made them tax-free for good. So pay comes partly as premiums, and when premiums jump, the raise is what shrinks.
Greg Ip retweeted
I can't tell if people think the pre-Trump GOP is returning, or if America is going to become a one-party state, but honestly neither of those things is likely to happen.
Greg Ip retweeted
The NYT and WSJ — the two major destination news publishers with stable, profitable business models — are going to have even more insane moats as social/search traffic enters its final death spiral.
Reddit call was absolutely fascinating. Everyone should listen to it as a bellwether for where the internet is going
- AI Mode is increasingly default Google experience
- AI Mode provides rich info and data in line, less incentive to leave search
- AI Mose incentivizes dialog, Google wants to keep you engaged to serve more ads at each turn
- Google will milk search for as much revenue as possible as they transition from a search company to a cloud service and chip company
- As traffic from humans becomes more scarce this will put Google in an increasingly adversarial position to the rest of the internet
- This is a massive headwind to all media type companies who are not destinations
- This is a massive headwind to all content-driven go-to-market motions especially in the SMB. You have seen companies like HubSpot and Monday.com get crushed by this funnel collapse
We are entering the end game - a knife fight for the remaining and dwindling volume of human traffic on the internet
Greg Ip retweeted
Good - yet depressing - article. Neither party can run on deficit reduction because their own record is terrible.
These politicians are following voters who want endless tax cuts & spending hikes and will vote out anyone who dares to stop the debt binge.
wsj.com/economy/fiscal-hawks…
Greg Ip retweeted
All of these countries have access to the same LLMs.
This raises the likelihood that what’s behind the US productivity boost is less about AI-augmented task productivity & more about something else like mechanical AI capex effects… or something besides AI entirely.
This quoted post is unavailable.
Greg Ip retweeted
Decent chance the Anthropic IPO serves as a year-end liquidity clearing event but it’s hard to feel great about them trying to raise up to $100 billion when OpenAI is looking in the couch cushions for money and a Q4 Fed hike looms: wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-raise…
Greg Ip retweeted
Don’t look now, but not only are Democrats on the cusp of a big midterm night, they’re on the verge of electing a bunch of moderate normies who can actually win in red states. The real question is: Will anyone in the Democratic Party notice — or care?
Greg Ip retweeted
The legal team @wsj is the secret sauce in their most impactful work. That’s true at @wapo as well. Good chance to thank the lawyers who support journalism— including all those working at @rcfp.
Greg Ip retweeted
Before Hollywood, I was living in a van in Hawaii and waiting tables at Bubba Gump Shrimp Company. One day, the incredible Rae Dawn Chong walked into the restaurant, and naturally, I went up to her table and said, “Hey, you’re a movie star! What are you doing here?”
She asked if I could act, and I said, “Fuck yeah, put me in your movie!”
She asked for my phone number. The only problem was I didn’t have one. So I gave her my buddy Mike’s number instead. A couple days later, Mike casually mentions, “Oh, by the way, someone called you.” ARE YOU KIDDING ME, MIKE?!
I called her back, and sure enough, she was serious. I drove over to pick up the script, went back to Mike’s house, and read all 120 pages three times in a row. First script I’d ever read. My character's name was Devon, and I remember thinking, “Sweet! I could totally play a Devon!”
I showed up to the audition with every line and inflection mapped out in pencil. Rae told me I could act and offered me the part. I asked if we were shooting in Hawaii. Nope. Los Angeles.
I had about $60 to my name, a bag of clothes, and some rollerblades.
Then Rae told me they'd fly me out. And I remember thinking right then and there, my life just changed forever. I'm going to be an actor.
That little movie was Cursed Part 3, a low-budget horror comedy that opened the door to Hollywood for me.
I'll forever be grateful to Rae for taking a chance on a kid working at a shrimp restaurant. Everybody starts somewhere, and this is where it all began for me.
Greg Ip retweeted
New: The US debt-to-GDP ratio for FY2026 clocks in at .... 100.03%.
If that survives after GDP revisions, it's the first triple-digit year since 1946.
wsj.com/economy/federal-debt…
Greg Ip retweeted
This is one of the most important pieces of social science on human and AI interaction that I’ve seen in some time. Experts follow agentic advice the vast majority of the time (causally), but only a tiny fraction credit the agent—majority think they came to decision on their own volition.
Reminds me of the classic Nisbett and Wilson study on people following outside influence without realizing it
“ But as more work is handed to AI—including AI safety research—these judgment calls are the main levers for people's own values to influence outcomes.
If people defer to AI without noticing, then "human in the loop" might provide less assurance than people expect.”
Greg Ip retweeted
So Democrats first act in the next Congress is to propose “shock and awe” massive deficit expansions. Would easily top 1+% if GDP when combining legislation to reverse the tariffs, Medicaid and SNAP cuts, plus proposed expansions of CTC/EITC/LIHTC, PTC, and more.
NYT: Democrats Plan “Shock-and-Awe” Legislative Burst
Should they win in November, top House Democrats are planning a shock-and-awe legislative sprint to demonstrate within hours of taking power that they are passing bills to deliver on their promises, including restoring health care subsidies and Medicaid resources and moving to end Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the war with Iran
nytimes.com/2026/10/23/us/po…
Greg Ip retweeted
Concept Concept Concept.
Karate Kid with a Navy SEAL is as clear as they come.
@jockowillink created the Way of the Warrior Kid series because he was unsatisfied with books his own children were reading. In Jocko's world, when you are unsatisfied with something, you act. When Jocko acts, bestsellers result.
I read the book to my kids, and found them doing push-ups and sit-ups afterwards. Something about the character and the story connected with them instantly.
A mutual friend knew Jocko and I asked him to put us in touch.
I pitched Jocko an adaptation that would combine his clear vision with Hollywood's spectacle. We would develop the screenplay on our own, package it on our own, and then bring the project to the town. We shook hands and got to work.
The first step was identifying a screenwriter. A CAA agent was my next call, and from a list of great writers, @StaplesWill name rose to the top. His take was aligned with the vision, and he became the man for the job.
With the writers' strike looming, Will wrote the draft in 21 days.
When concept meets execution, the stars align.
@prattprattpratt read the first draft and attached himself overnight.
I'd recently made a film with McG, and had an instinct that Jocko, Chris, and McG would gel.
The package went to Cannes, and @skydance greenlit the film as part of its relationship with @AppleTV.
The rest is history.
We hope you enjoy the trailer. Years in the making.
Long live the movies.
