Ash Sethi 🇹🇭

Biggest beneficiaries of Thailand's new excise tax on fully imported EVs: 🇨🇳BYD 🇨🇳GWM 🇨🇳SAIC 🇨🇳Changan 🇨🇳GAC Group 🇨🇳Chery Mixed Fortunes: 🇰🇷Hyundai 🇯🇵Isuzu 🇯🇵Toyota 🇯🇵Honda 🇯🇵Mitsubishi 🇯🇵Mazda 🇩🇪BMW 🇩🇪Mercedes Hardest Hit: 🇺🇸Tesla 🇨🇳Geely Group 🇨🇳XPeng 🇩🇪Porsche 🇩🇪Audi Thailand spent years courting Chinese EV makers and they benefited massively from the subsidies successive Thai govts gave them, as well as low excise rates and zero tariffs under the China-ASEAN trade agreement. Japanese makers have Thai factories and deep local supply chains but sell mostly hybrids and ICE, and the new tax won't recoup market share lost to Chinese brands or reverse losses of Thai jobs and production. Koreans and Germans build some their lineups locally. But their EVs are priced as premium products and can't match Chinese pricing. Tesla’s Thai cars come from the Shanghai Gigafactory and Geely's brands like Volvo and Zeekr will take a beating.

Thailand is unmatched in blasting you with pervasive advertising 🇹🇭 Even as I exercise, the treadmill at my gym is showing me ads for fast food fried chicken and french fries

100%. Best take from Gastech this week.⬇️ Parts of Thailand's mfg sector are obsolete or priced out. To avoid structural recession it must develop new industries that move us further up the value chain. All the high value growth industries the world needs in AI, data centers, advanced mfg and low-carbon fuels are energy intensive and require firmed power. Next-gen loads can’t run on grids designed for appliance factories and AC. So 🇹🇭 must build not only more energy capacity but more reliable power infra, legislate supportive industrial policy, and liberalize the power sector. Hyperscalers will not finance 20-year sites without a path to reliable, contractable electricity with traceable renewables. That is why the 🇹🇭 govt is debating draft PDP 2026 in the same month as Gastech. It adds a large renewable and storage build, and the govt has finally begun opening direct PPAs so big users can buy clean power more directly.

Khun Namphueng has a great story. Her parents are Shan, so she did not get Thai citizenship despite being born in Thailand. At school she and her classmates developed a special seed coating to improve rice survival during droughts. They were selected to represent Thailand at the 2019 Intel Science and Engineering Fair in the US. But she couldn't get a travel visa because she did not have a Thai passport. This is a common problem for hill tribes in Thailand’s north. When Namphueng’s case drew media attention and support from NGOs, her nationality problem was immediately resolved. Their project won second place in its category, and she received a $3000 scholarship. 🇹🇭 still has remarkable people who manage to soar despite hard circumstances 😀

Thailand announces a new “hub” every week like it’s collecting Pokémon Halal hub. EV hub. Wellness hub. Creative hub. We are the undisputed hub of announcing hubs -Hold press conference at a five-star hotel -Invite three conglomerates and a deputy minister -Liberal use of buzzwords but empty on strategy -Fix few of the regulatory, capital, skills shortage, infra bottlenecks, or monopolies problems need to improve -Everyone forgets Saying 'hub' is so attractive because it is cost-free, requiring neither a detailed industrial strategy, credible timelines, specific goals, nor any mechanism of accountability or hard follow up. It is essentially a piece of PR, as if the announcement itself is a declaration of achievement and dynamism, and travels easily through the news cycle. 🇹🇭has to much potential but we need less marketing and gimmicks and more brains and calculators developing step by step strategy for how to get from A to B.

Chinese mfg overcapacity in chemicals, consumer goods, appliances, and cars has been dumped onto ASEAN at prices no one can match. Thailand's job losses have been brutal and its trade deficit with China now a staggering 12%+ of 🇹🇭GDP. SME closures and capital access so bad that SME lending has been negative for 13 straight quarters. Big exporters plugged into global electronics supply chains are fine; the domestic Thai industrial base underneath them is dying. Thailand's household debt overhang (~90% of GDP) makes this worse: Banks won't lend to SMEs, and weak domestic purchasing power means no home market to fall back on. This is once again back to the same problem: After 1997 crisis, Thai industry chased domestic market share instead of higher-value export discipline like Korea. Productivity stagnated, R&D was weak, political instability deterred FDI, and education remained neglected. So when tech evolved and Vietnam began winning on price, Thailand had few proprietary technologies, brands or globally competitive firms to fall back on. Our factories can still produce, but much of the IP, pricing power and profit belongs elsewhere. It tells us that our development model needs radical restructuring, but we're still waiting for the phone to ring.

Bangkok’s infamous black spaghetti is not merely hideous; it often renders sidewalks unusable. Most people cant or wont contort themselves around the numerous beams which support them. They take the risk and walk in the road. This is in front of BKK's most expensive hotel (AMAN Nai Lert). We need a visible plan to be rid of these eyesores, citywide, not just on 2-3 ultra-prestige blocks. Public safety, property values, traffic, quality of life would all benefit.

This heavy-metal contamination crisis is not a Chiang Rai problem. It's a serious national-interest problem. Chiang Rai is a major agricultural province. Its rice, fruit, and vegetables end up on Bangkok plates, and Thai exports. Last year a Thai rice consignment failed Australia's imported-food testing for arsenic levels. The producer was placed under a holding order. Though the cause cannot be positively attributed to mining, the 🇹🇭 govt's own findings on the contamination of our waters are troubling: In May 2025 the PCD found arsenic above national safety standards at 11 of 15 Kok River monitoring points. By June, every point from the Myanmar border to Chiang Rai City had failed. That same month the Health Ministry told Chiang Rai residents to stop eating freshwater fish from the Kok, Sai, and Mekong after finding fish with ulcers and lesions and detecting arsenic and lead above safe limits. Then PCD's March 2026 tests found arsenic in Mekong mainstream sediment as high as 296 mg/kg. The PCD's own severe-danger threshold is 33 mg/kg. Researchers at Mae Fah Luang and Chiang Rai Rajabhat universities have since found arsenic accumulating in the bodies of people living along the river. Some are already showing clinical symptoms. First, think of the Thais bearing this. They drink this water, farm with it, and have to eat what it produces. But it's not just their problem. Thailand exported ฿148 billion of rice in 2025. Vietnam and India already undercut us on price. Trust and food safety are strategic economic assets, and close to the last advantage we have. Upstream cleanup requires a serious solution; not more five-year "monitoring" and a photo-op. Please think in national, not parochial, terms.

The biggest spending tourists in Thailand are all from the Middle East. Average length of stay 10-12 days.🇹🇭 52% of Thailand's foreign tourism revenue comes from 8 countries: China, Russia, Malaysia, India, UK, Germany, USA, and South Korea (~$25B out of $48B).

Actual data doesn’t show a Thai mfg revival, but heavy AI/datacenter demand for hardware, primarily in US. The number to watch is the Manufacturing Production Index: a monthly value-added-weighted gauge of 🇹🇭 mfg output across 75 sectors. Electronics exports up 57% in US$ terms, but MPI up just 0.8% YoY and the seasonally adjusted index is still below the 2024 average. Electrical-appliance output also fell 5% even as appliance exports rose ~20%. That points to some mix of inventory drawdown, price/mix effects, and shipping while the US tariff easing holds. Imports also rose 32% in Q1, leaving goods trade $9.5B in deficit.

Good observation. Troubling answers. Cutting headline rent in 🇹🇭 often affects how the building is valued on the balance sheet. That often triggers bank loan covenants and reappraisals. (Some commercial landlords do offer unpublished discounts and concessions). The stranger phenomenon is Bangkok’s relentless construction despite high commercial vacancy rates. Tokyo, Seoul, Mumbai, Singapore are all sub 5%. BKK is 25% grade A. So why do they keep building? 1.Thai property developers and construction bosses publicly and successfully lobbied the BOT to loosen LTV rules and land/building tax costs; and pressured banks to ease housing credit. 2.Much of the vacant space coming onto the market was greenlit pre-2020 when the economy oversteered into Chinese money, assuming it was easy and endless. Hybrid work + low growth will shift new builds to the residential market, where purchases by Burmese buyers are surging alongside Russian demand at the high end.

Instead of lazy rent-seeking AOT should build concessions inside airports where passengers actually want to spend money: Cool experiences, services, and great dining, like at Singapore and Doha. Duty-free and food options at Thai airports leave a great deal to be desired.

Non-Smoking Thai Women Are Getting Lung Cancer Women account for a third of Thailand's lung cancer deaths despite a smoking rate of less than 2%. Something other than cigarettes is killing them. substack.com/home/post/p-192…

We saw Gohan last night and cried a lot! Such a wonderful, heartwarming movie.🐕 I love how @gdh559 is carrying Thai cinema forward. Hope the film gets a wider audience 🇹🇭😀 ชอบมากที่ @gdh559 กำลังพาหนังไทยก้าวไปข้างหน้า หวังว่าหนังเรื่องนี้จะได้เข้าถึงผู้ชมในวงกว้างมากขึ้น♥️

Thailand is so gas heavy that any supply shock becomes a national emergency.🇹🇭 +60% of electricity is from nat gas and LNG imports up 7x since 2014. Every 10% gas price spike = 3.5% electricity tariff hike. Spot LNG prices running ~2x last year's ave. Coal plants > blackouts.

This resonates because Thailand has an exceptional number of people who are selfless and kind in life's small moments, like this gentleman... And like those he meets: people facing extraordinary hard lives, who endure with gentleness and dignity. 🇹🇭