Inkling

FEDERAL SPENDING AS A PERCENT OF GDP: only two times in history has it been this high: WWII and Covid. WHY do small business owners believe the economy is already in a recession but somehow the US is not in a recession? #Credit event #Recession

BLOOMBERG: jobs report DOUBLED consensus - US job growth surged in October and the unemployment rate edged lower, a sign of labor-market strength in an expanding economy.

US labor Q3 productivity growth was considerably higher than forecast - suddenly there's good news all around for the economy and inflation per Bloomberg

GDP detail - Third quarter Real GDP was consistent with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s characterization of an economy expanding at a strong pace. Details were even stronger than the headline: AI major engine of growth, consumer spending stayed resilient,(Bloomberg Economics)

From yesterday - Federal Reserve Board side-by-side comparison (September 16 vs. October 28)

Core PCE unchanged at .3%

US 3Q GDP Rises at 3.4% Annual Pace, Est. +3.2% (Bloomberg)

Bloomberg: SpaceX revenue beat estimates for the third straight quarter.

(Bloomberg) - 72 million Americans receiving Social Security benefits will increase by 3.6% in 2027, the most in four years. The cost-of-living adjustment, known as COLA, will apply to Social Security benefits starting in January and increase the average benefit for retired workers by $75 per month to $2,170, the Social Security Administration said Wednesday. Higher payments for Supplemental Security Income recipients will begin on Dec. 31.

In an attempt to produce something/ anything worth watching - Netflix is eliminating 1,000 positions (WSJ)

Core CPI - excluding food and energy rose 0.3% m/m in Sept. after rising 0.3% m/m in Aug., according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics; est. +0.2%. (Bloomberg)

BIG THREE BANK BONANZA - 3Q record-high earnings from lending: more borrowing at increased interest and fewer delinquencies (“non-accrual” loans).  JP, Citi, and Wells reported a combined $56.5 billion of net interest income in the period, setting a new high-water mark for a fifth straight quarter.

BLOOMBERG: France fiscal crisis • France is facing a fiscal crisis, with investors losing faith in the country's ability to manage its debt burden, and a market rout has sent borrowing costs soaring. • The crisis has been exacerbated by nationwide protests by young people, who are demanding €10 billion in funding... • The situation has sparked concerns about the potential for contagion to other countries' debt, with Italian and Greek yield spreads also rising, and the euro declining against other currencies.

(Bloomberg Law) -- The US Supreme Court will finally hear a climate lawsuit on the merits on Oct. 5 in Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc. v. County Commissioners of Boulder County...and could have major implications for...market-disruptive lawsuits across dozens of cases nationwide. The locus of law for claims (state versus federal and forum shopping for favorable state court judges), the theory of the claims, and the type of court have all shifted over time as plaintiffs have adopted new strategies in different forums as adverse or advantageous precedents have ebbed and flowed. The Supreme Court in Suncor can put an end to at least one area of this entrepreneurial lawyering that has gone on far too long. In the Tennessee Valley Authority’s brief supporting dismissal of the climate change plaintiff claims, then-Solicitor General Neil Katyal wrote that "CLIMATE CHANGE IS “A RESULT OF THE ACTIONS OF INNUMERABLE SOURCES OF VARIOUS KINDS OF EMISSIONS FROM AROUND THE WORLD OVER MANY DECADES," and it impacts every person – which isn’t the type of thing we leave for courts. Something that would have innumerable defendants and plaintiffs should have neither, the brief argued.

US Business Activity Expands at the Fastest Pace Since 2021 BLOOMBERG: US business activity rose at the fastest pace in more than five years as robust demand pushed up new orders and employment at manufacturers and service providers.

(Bloomberg) President Donald Trump said the US had reached an agreement with Denmark over Greenland that he said would give the US "permanent control over security" and that addressed US concerns over the territory. Trump announced the deal on social media Friday, saying that the arrangement was one that addressed "ALL of our many US concerns" and would be at "NO COST to the United States." "At my direction, we worked with representatives of Denmark and Greenland to guarantee that the United States will FOREVER have the complete ability to do what is necessary in Greenland in order to secure and defend the security of Greenland, and the United States of America."

Warsh at Jackson Hole symposium: Covid insanity (fiscal and central bank policies) drove and suspended GLOBAL INFLATION. "US inflation: 54% of the 199 components in the PCE basket had risen faster than 3% from a year earlier — well above the 32% average in the TWO DECADES BEFORE the Covid insanity super bubble. NOT to be outdone: Japan is furthest above its pre-pandemic norm of 14%. The US (31%) and euro area (18%) are also well above. The UK has moved back close to its own historically higher norm of 36%." (Bloomberg)

Bloomberg: 2-year curve could be expecting multiple rate increases

Federal Reserve Open Market Committee September 16 and July 29 statement comparison - and a 12-0 vote to increase rates.

10-year treasuries hitting the 5-handle for the first time in 3 years and ranging from 20 years ago - top of the 5-year range or this time it different? "Thus far the selloff has remained largely orderly with volatility contained" (Bloomberg)