
PhD candidate @CSUPoliSci @ColoradoStateU | political behavior + psychology | trust | risk | judgment + decision making | RT ≠ E
- Tweets1.6K
- Following1.1K
- Followers451
- Likes4.1K

ALT Grid of 25 line charts, one per fabricated poll posted by Wedgewood Polls (navy) or Median Strategies (salmon) between June and October 2026. Each line shows the Polymarket price of the candidate or party the poll put ahead, from 12 hours before to 24 hours after the post, marked by a dashed line. Each title gives the race and date, the poll's result, its margin compared with the average of other polls from the prior two weeks, and whose price is shown. Most lines move only a cent or two around the post.

ALT Dot plot in three panels: one hour, six hours and one day after release. Each dot is a poll's price move in the direction its numbers pointed relative to the recent polling average, after removing normal drift, in cents. Fabricated polls (navy and salmon) are compared with real polls (gray), with black points showing averages and 95% intervals. Real polls average about half a cent toward their news. Fabricated polls average slightly below zero.

ALT Two scatter plots, one hour and one day after release. The horizontal axis is how far a poll's margin sat from the recent polling average, in points. The vertical axis is the price move after removing normal drift, in cents. A solid line fitted to real polls (gray dots) slopes upward: prices move with real polls' news. A dashed line fitted to fabricated polls (navy and salmon) is flat to downward.

ALT Scatter plot. The horizontal axis is the price of the poll's leading candidate before release, in cents. The vertical axis is the change in that price one day later. Gray dots are real polls, with a smoothed trend that is higher when the poll's leader was the market underdog. Labeled navy and salmon dots are the fabricated polls by race and date, most within a cent or two of zero.




























