Erin Fitz (@itserinfitz) header
Erin Fitz (@itserinfitz) profile picture

PhD candidate @CSUPoliSci @ColoradoStateU | political behavior + psychology | trust | risk | judgment + decision making | RT ≠ E

Colorado, USA
Joined June 2020
Photo by Erin Fitz (@itserinfitz)Photo by Erin Fitz (@itserinfitz)Photo by Erin Fitz (@itserinfitz)Photo by Erin Fitz (@itserinfitz)Photo by Erin Fitz (@itserinfitz)Photo by Erin Fitz (@itserinfitz)Photo by Erin Fitz (@itserinfitz)Photo by Erin Fitz (@itserinfitz)Photo by Erin Fitz (@itserinfitz)Photo by Erin Fitz (@itserinfitz)
Erin Fitz retweeted
If you're going to be in Fort Collins on Tuesday, and are not doing anything at around 11am, and are in the mood to go down a nerdy rabbit hole with me, well, you might as well come see me give the keynote to Colorado State University's Democracy Summit. More information here: libarts.colostate.edu/resear…
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nice AI disclosure arxiv.org/pdf/2610.27918
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The observation that some electoral system “works” in other countries does not mean it will do the same (whatever that might be) in the United States. More precisely, such examples do not respond to skepticism based on unique features of the American political system.
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After Median Strategies' fake polls and Wedgewood Polls rumors, I started collecting data to study how "real" versus "fake" polls affect electoral probabilities on Polymarket. Was hoping to have until after the election to finish the preprint...but some preliminary analysis:
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Erin Fitz retweeted
Due Today! The #Rapoport Family Foundation Dissertation Grants provide up to $15,000 for US-based PhD candidates conducting American politics survey research. Submit and finalize your applications here: buff.ly/HfkdGGX #dissertationgrants
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"'autonomous AI scientists' can introduce systematic methodological pitfalls... their outputs may appear rigorous while concealing critical flaws. We find that manuscript-based evaluation alone is insufficient to detect these methodological issues"
One of the most-viewed PNAS articles in the last week is “The more you automate, the less you see: Hidden pitfalls of autonomous AI scientists.” Explore the article here: ow.ly/zJL650ZY80m For more trending articles, visit ow.ly/WQXV50ZY80n.
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But trust in what or whom? Not to mention the evidence that no one wants to hear—that bitcoiners typically have *more* institutional trust. not less.
A new paper from the BIS—the central bank of central banks—describes gold as a "monetary protest" reflecting eroding confidence in institutions and central banks, while Bitcoin "shares this impulse and adds a technological veneer." Meanwhile, central banks themselves have been buying gold at a historically record pace, and more financial institutions than ever before are embracing Bitcoin. What does it say when the very institutions that underpin the monetary system are themselves participating in a "monetary protest"? 🤔
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Rereading a draft now that it has an R&R
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no no no no no no no
On behalf of an entire discipline, I must ask "why?????"
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Maybe Calvin (1992) knew it all along
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YA THINK
Sam Altman admits “something’s clearly not working” with the AI money that has flooded the midterms — and he doesn’t expect Trump’s rebrand of the tech to improve his industry’s image with the public either. Listen to Decoded by POLITICO: politi.co/4j4i6Af
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Except for when it won’t take on the task for certain topics, as @profgoose and I find in some of our new (almost out!) work. Not sure how one would even go about validating this but my counter hot take is that veracity/disagreement between human judges is perhaps more readily mediated by AI (which is not necessarily a good thing)
Hot take: From about GPT-5 onward, if humans and LLMs disagree in a data labeling task, when you look at the actual disagreeing cases, it's almost always that the LLM is right and the human(s) are wrong OR the humans also substantively disagree with each other
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what the artificial intelligence consciousness debate shows is that deep down tech bros just want to be humanities graduate students
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He got it from his mama. Bear 89, aka Backpack, is the 2026 Fat Bear Week champ. Turns out hefty runs in the family. His mom, Holly the Duchess of Density, won in 2019. She carried him on her back as a cub and helped him survive a serious leg injury. Now her little Backpack has a crown of his own. 👑
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The Intelligent Woman's Guide To Atomic Radiation, by Margot Bennett. Penguin Special, 1964. Cover by Bruce Robertson.
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1. Most features aren’t yet functional or ever likely to be 2. Tech outputs are observable but the decisions/motivations behind them are not 3. Digitization can make things stickier but ≠ better or permanent 4. Automation often means more, not less, centralization (and with less accountability) 5. The state might outsource shiny tools (right before midterms, wow gee) but it will never, ever give its power away.
Impressive. This set of talks, along with the new America dot gov website, has the unmistakable feel of an Apple launch event. They're rebooting the federal government as a tech startup. Several observations. (1) First, with this new AI interface to the entire federal government, if it works as promised, there won't be a single American who can't say their life wasn't helped at least in part by AI, or that the benefits accrued solely to zillionaires. This in itself cannily mitigates anti-datacenter sentiment. (2) Second, Joe Gebbia and Marco Rubio's talks on simplifying name changes and passport filings introduce a completely new era where the US government is actually launching tangible features that benefit users. (3) Third, this launch event in and of itself may visibly drive reform. It could become much more important than the State of the Union. Unlike laws, code is user-visible, and can be instantly audited by the public, as Obama found out with the failed obamacare website launch. So: the annual America dot gov event may be substance, whereas SOTU is traditionally optics. I wouldn't be surprised to see the President present at the next one. (4) Fourth, this kind of event is a perfect example of where tech and red cooperate best. They both hate bureaucracy. Automating paperwork with code reduces the power of statists over both capitalists and nationalists. It's also hard to undo by other admins: once you digitize a process, hard to turn it back to paper. (5) Fifth, it's an obvious point perhaps, but think about how much influence YCombinator has had in 20 years. From Gebbia's Airbnb joining their 2009 batch to a complete overhaul of the user interface of the US bureaucracy, and thus the US government. (6) Sixth, this is another take on the network state. The functional part of the US (the network, meaning tech) is merging with and partially reforming the dysfunctional part (the state, meaning bureaucracy) by automating 20th century paper forms. As a tech startup, there will no doubt be bugs and user issues and so on, but unlike with paper laws those issues will be visible and the code fixes will be verifiable. A new era of AI America. Rooting for them.
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Time once again for my occasional series "Women with great hair fleeing gothic houses!" No I hadn't forgotten..
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