NFL Week 7 Review ✍️ My thoughts on all the games with statistical analysis, upgrades, and downgrades for each team. If this does well I will start posting it weekly. Thank you for reading. Patriots at Bears (TNF) New England won the box score (+1.6 net YPP, +0.7% net SR) but Drake Maye threw a bad pick in the RZ which took at least 3 points off the board. The Bears also completely botched the end of half situation letting Rhamondre Stevenson waltz in from 48 yards out on an underneath pass. Very strange play. Caleb Williams showed you his ceiling and Chicago had their highest EPA on early downs and on dropbacks since the Week 1 blowout over Carolina. The biggest red flag for the Bears continues to be their defense but they are ranked 16th in EPA per play allowed so it’s an average unit which might be good enough to win most weeks if the offense keeps improving with Williams. The Pats have become very predictable in that Drake Maye always seems to make at least one horrible decision each game and turnovers are a major concern. Maye has thrown 8 RZ interceptions since entering the league in 2024 which is tied with Geno Smith for the most in that span. Slight upgrade Chicago. Slight downgrade New England. Steelers vs Saints (Paris) Pittsburgh won the box score (+0.8 net YPP, +3.8% net SR) and had a positive turnover margin (1-0). Overall it was a very clean performance from the Steelers who have only committed 1 turnover in their last 3 games. Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy seem to be on the same page. The backs have looked good with Rico Dowdle returning and Jaylen Warren creating explosives on the ground and through the air. The Saints offense has trended way down since starting the season hot. They have failed to gain more than 320 yards since Week 3 against the Raiders and that performance is aging like milk considering how Vegas has fallen off lately. The big problem for New Orleans right now is the line of scrimmage and mistakes. They’ve committed 10 turnovers in their last five games and are struggling to run the ball. They posted their worst EPA per rush number against the Steelers in this game. Slight upgrade Pittsburgh. Slight downgrade New Orleans. 49ers at Falcons San Francisco won the box score (+1.2 net YPP, +8.8% net SR) but had a minus-4 turnover margin (0-4) and were in a terrible spot on a short week without several key players due to injury, the main one being Mike Evans. CMC also left this game briefly with an injury. The Niners continue to have the worst injury luck in the league. Blame the substation or voodoo magic. I didn’t think Atlanta played that well in this game and credit DC Raheem Morris (former Falcons HC) and the Niners defense for holding Bijan Robinson in check. Atlanta has now had three straight weeks of negative EPA per rush since exploding against the Saints on MNF in Week 4. Michael Penix Jr. did a good job getting the ball out quick and had one of his shortest time to throw rates of the season which led to zero sacks allowed, but the Falcons also had their lowest explosive play rate (3.4%) of the season. Unless Bijan is busting big runs this offense feels very limited. I think the Niners will be fine and should get healthier after their bye, which is this week. Brock Purdy is still playing at an MVP level and this was a horrible spot for them. I expect Evans, CMC, Bosa, and others to return next week so I’m not downgrading them here, plus they don’t play this week. Slight upgrade Atlanta. Browns at Titans Cleveland dominated the box score (+2.2 net YPP, +15.8% net SR) but still needed a late field goal to win. I am impressed with what I saw from the Browns offense especially on early downs and in the run game. Quinshon Judkins looked healthy and Dylan Sampson also provided a spark. KC Concepcion and Deshaun Watson also contributed. If they can get consistent production from all four of those guys paired with a defense that is 10th in EPA per play allowed, that's a winning formula for Cleveland. Tennessee continues to play like a bottom 10 unit on both sides of the ball. The QB/OC combo of Cam Ward and Brian Daboll is the worst in the league. Now that Miami has finally won a game and is showing signs of life on offense I think you can make the argument for the Titans being the worst team in the NFL. Solid upgrade Cleveland. Slightly bigger downgrade Tennessee. Colts at Vikings Minnesota won the box score (+1.4 net YPP, +7.1% net SR) and won turnovers (1-0). Indy was held to just 218 yards of total offense and 3.7 yards per play, both season lows. The Brian Flores blitz scheme was effective, generating nearly a 30% pressure rate. The Vikings defense leads the NFL in EPA per play allowed and SR allowed. The issue is their offense is ranked 27th in both categories. They are the only undefeated team left in the NFL but rank 23rd in points per game. I don’t think that’s sustainable considering the brutal schedule they have coming up over the next 4 games (at Lions, vs Bills, at Packers, vs Niners). The Colts are impossible to trust considering the inability of Daniel Jones to play on time and on target. Jones is ranked 27th in adjusted EPA per play and 28th in CPOE (completion rate over expected) out of 33 qualifiers. Jonathan Taylor continues to be productive but they lack weapons on the outside and really miss Tyler Warren. I’m not upgrading Minnesota because of how bad their offense has been and the upcoming schedule. Slight downgrade for Indy. Dolphins at Jets New York won the box score (+1.4 net YPP, +2.8% net SR) but lost turnovers (0-1) and allowed the Dolphins offense to operate efficiently. Malik Willis posted season-highs in TDs (2), QBR (130.7), YPA (9.9), completion rate (66.7%) and total EPA (+16.4). Willis also had his 2nd quickest time to throw rate of the season (2.91) which tells me he was playing on time and within the structure of the offense. The bye clearly had a positive impact on him and I don’t think he is playing as bad as the Dolphins record indicates. The Jets also struggled to generate pressure and allowed Miami to go 4-for-4 scoring TDs in the RZ. Besides a bad interception Geno Smith didn’t play poorly and the run game continued to be effective despite Breece Hall missing his 4th straight game. At 2-5 the Jets season is basically cooked with games against the Chiefs and Bills looming over the next three weeks. I don’t know they will fire Aaron Glenn midseason, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they did and let Frank Reich be the interim since he has prior head coaching experience. This team clearly isn’t going anywhere with Glenn and he lacks any kind of situational awareness to improve his team while on the sidelines. I’m starting to come around on Malik Willis and this Dolphins offense. They are such a young team on both sides of the ball it makes sense that they would benefit from an early bye week and slowly improve for the rest of the season. I’m giving them a pretty big upgrade for this win, not because they were overly impressive, but because I was so low on them and I think they are starting to figure things out. Slight downgrade for the Jets. Tough to get much lower on them. Bucs at Panthers Tampa won the box score (+0.7 net YPP, +12.7% net SR) but not by as much as you would expect considering the 43-13 final score. Carolina had a bunch of self-inflicted wounds. They lost a combined 47.37 of EPA to turnovers, sacks, penalties, and special teams. Bryce Young posted season lows in yards (163), YPA (6.0), completion rate (51.9%), QBR (51.9), CPOE (-10.9%) and EPA (-22.7). Young also threw 2 picks for the first time since Week 12 of last season and Carolina’s offense posted negative EPA on early downs for the first time this year. Tampa’s offense more than doubled their season average (18.1 points per game) and Baker’s return brought an immediate spark. Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell were fantastic running the ball. Tampa posted their best EPA per rush mark of the season by far. I don’t want to declare Tampa fully back because this was a ghastly performance by Carolina but considering the division they play in they are very much alive to make the postseason. This was a burn the tape type of game for the Panthers and I don’t think they are as bad as this final score indicates. Slight upgrade Tampa. Slight downgrade Carolina. Bengals at Ravens Cincinnati won the box score (+1.5 net YPP, +15.4% net SR) and turnovers (1-0). They started the game flat off the bye falling behind 13-0 but exploded in the 2nd half outsourcing the Ravens 35-0. Joe Burrow played his best game of the season with his top weapons Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins looking healthy. The Bengals also went a perfect 5-for-5 scoring TDs in the RZ while Baltimore went 1-for-4. The Ravens now have an NFL record 17 losses with a double-digit lead since 2019 and have allowed a league-high 114 points in the 2nd half. That’s concerning when you consider new HC Jesse Minter is a defensive guy. As I mentioned last week, it’s hard to really judge what they are with Lamar Jackson still on the shelf. I will say the leadup to this game was interesting. It appeared like Jackson would play, they said he would be a gametime decision, then on Saturday (almost 24 hours before the game) it was announced he was out. There was some chatter on Monday about the Ravens being surprised that Jackson didn’t play. I have no idea if it’s true or not, but it’s something to keep an eye on. Slight upgrade Cincinnati. Slight downgrade Baltimore. They need Lamar back very badly with games against the Bills and Jags on deck. Giants at Texans New York won the box score (+2.3 net YPP, +2.4% net SR) and held Houston to 239 yards of total offense. I was impressed with how J.J. McCarthy handled himself on the road. He posted one of the highest air yard numbers of the week. He was willing to take shots down the field and was accurate with those shots. He also didn’t commit a turnover. The run game was highly effective and the Giants posted their best EPA per rush number of the season. That certainly helps settle down a young QB making his first start with a new team. You have to be impressed with how John Harbaugh has handled things so far. He benched Cam Skattebo and cut Najee Harris. Then went back to Skattebo in a big way this week and his patience was rewarded. Houston looked a little flat on offense and struggled on 3rd downs. Their defense has also been disappointing this season ranked 24th in EPA per play allowed. They ran it okay and didn’t get overwhelmed by the Giants pass rush which was encouraging. They just got outplayed. Perhaps the Euro hangover was a factor after the win in London last week. This season teams are 0-4-1 straight up and 0-5 ATS when they play the week after a Euro game with no bye (Texans vs GIants, Eagles vs Panthers, Jaguars vs Texans, Colts at Steelers, Commanders vs Giants). Big upgrade for the Giants with McCarthy looking significantly better than Jameis Winston. Slight downgrade Houston. Broncos at Cardinals Denver won the box score (+2.3 net YPP, +3.7% net SR) but they committed 11 penalties for 114 yards and only went 3-for-11 on 3rd downs. The upside here was Bo Nix finally took some shots down the field and actually led the league in air yards this week. The run game looked rejuvenated with Jonah Coleman (9 carries, 54 yards) back from injury. Bo Nix (7 carries 73 yards) also busted a huge 62-yard run for a TD in the 2nd quarter and hit RJ Harvey for a 52-yard touchdown in the 3rd quarter which cracked the game open. The Broncos defense continues to grade out like a top 5 unit and they have one of the best offensive lines in the league. Arizona has trended way down since beating the Chargers in Week 1. Their offense has failed to gain more than 4.8 yards per play in six straight games and their offensive line is giving up a ton of pressure. The run game is non-existent with Jeremiyah Love banged up and even when he plays he has only recorded more than 14 carries in one game all season. There just isn’t much to like about the Cardinals who look like the worst in the NFC. Slight upgrade Denver. Slightly bigger downgrade Arizona. Packers at Lions Detroit won the box score (+1.4 net YPP, +18.5% net SR) but lost turnovers (1-2). There was a lot of chatter about Dan Campbell’s decision to go for it on 4th and 1 at their own 24-yard-line with 4:53 remaining. Initially I was against it, but now that I’ve had time to think about it and listen to some other analysts I trust, I think it was the right move. Campbell was concerned that the Packers would be able to keep the ball for the remainder of regulation and win the game without Detroit getting another possession. I agree with that logic. The good news for Campbell is the opposing kicker was Trey Smack, who missed from 35 yards. Detroit then marched 71 yards and kicked the game-winner with no time remaining. Say what you want about Campbell, he sticks to his guns and has zero fear when coaching. His team tends to respond to it even if the results aren’t always positive. If you play this game out 1,000 times it might be 500 wins for the Lions and 500 for the Packers. Since Campbell took over as HC in 2021, 7 of the 11 games between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less. Slight upgrade Detroit. Slight downgrade Green Bay. Rams at Raiders Los Angeles won the box score (+0.7 net YPP, +23.7% net SR) but lost turnovers (0-2). The Rams continued to beat themselves, losing a combined 21.36 EPA to turnovers, sacks, penalties, and special teams. However none of that matters when the opposition is Kirk Cousins and the Raiders defense which got gashed on the ground. Cousins posted season lows in YPA (6.7), completion rate (59.1%) and EPA (-7.9). After starting 3-0 the Raiders have dropped 4 straight and seem to be out of the mix in a competitive AFC with teams like the Patriots and Ravens ahead of Vegas in the standings but not currently in the playoffs if they started today. I would think about making the move to Fernando Mendoza sooner rather than later. I was impressed with how the Rams overcame their massive injury issues to win a game and cover on the road, but they still have a long way to go in terms of getting back to the dominant team we expected them to be in the preseason. Matthew Stafford is currently ranked 17th in adjusted EPA per play. The defense is grading out like a top 10 unit but has struggled to generate pressure. They also committed 2 turnovers in a game for the 5th time this season. I think they will improve but I’m not as bullish on them as I was a couple weeks ago and need to see it on the field before I change my opinion. Slight upgrade for Los Angeles. Slight downgrade Vegas. Chiefs at Seahawks (SNF) Seattle won the box score (+1.6 net YPP, +11.8% net SR) and held Kansas City to 213 yards of total offense. The Seahawks defense is one of the best units in the league and held the Chiefs out of the RZ for the first time in the Mahomes era. Surprisingly Kansas City had a positive EPA per rush number but it was the first time all season their lack of weapons on the outside was truly exposed. Seattle continues to run their offense through JSN, which isn’t a bad strategy, but Sam Darnold threw another RZ pick and he continues to be the biggest glass ceiling for the potential of this offense. If Darnold plays clean football, the Seahawks are good enough to win the Super Bowl again, but good luck trying to predict when that disastrous decision or turnover will happen. The Chiefs are still a dangerous team but they played a very soft schedule to start the season and this was their first true test. If you can slow down Kenneth Walker I’m not sure KC has enough verticality on the outside to keep defenses honest. Getting Rashee Rice back should help but I’m not sure when that will be. Slight downgrade KC. Slight upgrade Seattle. Cowboys at Eagles (MNF) Dallas won the box score (+1.1 net YPP, +14.3% net SR) and won turnovers (1-0). I thought Tanner McKee played okay considering the circumstances. This was his first full week of prep as the starter since Jalen Hurts wasn’t announced out until late in the process last week. The run game showed some spark early until Saquon reinjured his hamstring. The issue for Philly in this game was the other side of the ball. The defense showed absolutely no fight. They registered a 0.0% pressure rate on Dak Prescott which is crazy to think when you consider the dudes they have up front and Vic Fangio calling signals. I do want to give some credit to Dak and the Cowboys offense. They were locked in from the start and posted their highest explosive play rate of the season (13.6%) and played turnover free. The Cowboys defense is still an issue especially when they face a team that can run the ball effectively. I’m concerned that the wheels could totally fall off for the Eagles who showed very little effort in a home primetime game and can’t seem to stay healthy this year. Slight upgrade Dallas. Big downgrade Philly. If you made it this far please like and share

I am one of these softest people on this app and even I wasn’t offended by this. Has to be more to this story.

Annandale Atoms (VA) ⚛️ My alma mater

Dak playing out of his mind tonight

Eagles +4.5

#Postseason YRFI Day 21 (19-18, +6.42) Brewers/Rays Gm 3 (+120)

I tracked 25 CFB totals that moved at least 2 points from open to close last week at a respected offshore book The move side went 15-10 (60%) vs the opening number and 13-12 (52%) vs the close Season vs open: 99-82-2 (55%) Season vs close: 86-87-1 (47%) Numbers matter

I tracked 20 CFB spreads that moved at least 2 points from open to close last week at a respected offshore book The move side went 11-9 (55%) vs the opening number and 9-11 (45%) vs the close Season vs open: 90-58-4 (61%) Season vs close: 76-74-2 (51%) Numbers matter

The last undefeated team in the NFL is the Minnesota Vikings, who are ranked 23rd in points scored per game Just like we all expected

Chiefs go scoreless for the first 43:18 of gametime. I would imagine that's some kind of record in the Mahomes era.

Mahomes looks horrible. Not sure if it's the crowd or the Seahawks defense or his total lack of weapons on the outside, probably all of the above. Wouldn't be shocked if they get shutout tonight.

Every single penalty should be subject to expedited review. We should also get expedited review on obvious plays where a penalty should have been called. We have the technology to fix this trash.

I love Tom Brady hammering the refs every chance he gets in the booth