Julian Ciccale

I’ll ship a bottle of champagne to whoever gets closest to $IREN closing price on the day after earnings. Must be a follower and post in advance! Place your bets! 🍾👇

On the AI buildout: the question the market is asking isn’t demand. Demand is real, compute is sold out and prices are still climbing. The question is how you finance one of the most expensive buildouts in history when the payer at the top of the chain is still burning cash. The fear came faster and harder than anyone expected. I think the answer will come faster than the market thinks too. Debt is shaky. Dilution is shaky. Vendor financing is creeping back in. From first economic principles, this resolves the way every capital bottleneck does: The price of compute goes up Only some of the compute gets built Margins upstream compress (NVDA has the most to give) Risk moves up the chain to the strongest balance sheets. Customers prepay more. The weakest neoclouds consolidate or die. Whoever owns the scarce asset that doesn’t depreciate, and can afford to wait, wins. So the real question isn’t whether AI gets built. It’s who pays the cost of capital to build it, and who owns it when the dust settles. What do you think?

Important: When price action becomes so obviously disconnected from the reality of a business, that’s when great companies and CEOs get to work. No more interviews. Nobody wants to hear you talk. No explanations will make sense in an irrational market. The only thing left? Put your head down. Work hard. Deliver for your customers. Lead your teams. Execute. Let the results do the talking. $IREN is doing exactly that.

I always thought a 3x to the downside was probably around the bottom for $IREN on an AI market pullback. $76 / 3 = $25.3 I guess I was wrong.

This sucks but now $IREN puts up 60%. Totally reckless selling and there's nothing I can do about it. If IREN is worth $9B only then NVDA should be $2T at most. Why? Do the math...

If this is your fear, rest assured we'll figure it out. Advertising is not going away anytime soon, if needed AI models will be ad-pilled to make it happen.

During 2022, I was pitching my own company to big PE firms. We were close to a sale, but did not make it. Market sentiment was off, plus execution on our side was not 100%. It took 3 more years to make it happen, but it happened. We got roughly the same price I had in mind in 2022. Lesson? Execute, deliver, and you'll eventually make it.

Would love to know what’s being said in the bank meetings on $ANT right now. My guess: they’ll raise what they need anyway, at a valuation of $1.5T or less. Better to raise and keep building than wait and try to time the market’s appetite.

I come from the future. Unfortunately, $IREN sees sub $20 before $40+. I can’t tell you when. Triple digits eventually, for strong holders only. This message will auto destruct in 3 ... 2 ... 1 Have a great Friday!

The real answer is nobody knows shit, market participants are just plain scared. That's the reason. 10Y, CAPEX, debt, dilution, AI useless are ALL excuses, you name it. I've been in many rooms with people managing private and public money a couple orders of magnitude above me in London/NYC. I won't post their names. And at the end of the day, most of them are faking it/following. Do your homework, soldier on, and be strong.

Watching day to day price action during the biggest technological boom in history feels insane. Because it is. As long as I’ve got the trend right, stay patient, don’t FOMO into crazy valuations, and give it years to play out, I’ll be fine. Yes, there will be delays, disruptions, and mistakes. That’s why it’s called growth investing. Heading to my indoor training now @GoZwift

Really sad day today in Spain. 🇪🇸🖤

New starter position in $QXO . Will report as I build conviction.

$ANT S1 "...If we fail to direct sufficient compute and research efforts to AI-assisted development, or if our competitors more effectively leverage AI to enhance their own innovation cycles, we risk falling progressively further behind as competitors..." This applies to all big tech companies. While finance bros are bearish compute.

If you read $ANT S1 "Growth Strategy", everything is fluff except only one point which ties to all the others. "Compute". They have great talent, they have great GTM and partnerships. They need to keep burning the compute fuel to accelerate.