Meh. AI is a technology. It will close some doors but also open many others.
Exciting times ahead!
This is it.
Everyone is excited about AI.
I'm not.
AI is the biggest commoditizer of human capability we have ever built. Doctors earn more than cleaners because expertise takes a decade to acquire and judgment to apply. AI is going to make most of that expertise available to anyone, at marginal cost.
The gap doesn't go to zero. But it shrinks. And the same thing happens in almost every knowledge profession. Programmers. Lawyers. Analysts. Traders. Designers. The taxi driver replaced by a robotaxi is the easy case. The harder ones are people who spent twenty years training to do something a model can now do in a second.
The one corner of human life I don't see this hitting is sport. Nobody pays to watch a robot beat a human. The whole appeal is humans competing against each other. That's why nobody watches Deep Blue play chess anymore.
From an investing perspective, the next decade plays out in three phases.
Phase 1 is the buildout. Hundreds of billions in capex on chips, data centers, and energy. This is what's driving today's market.
Phase 2 is the deployment. Productivity rises sharply, then deflation sets in as the cost of knowledge work collapses. Jobs disappear faster than the economy can replace them.
Phase 3 is the social adjustment. Capital becomes more powerful than labor. The biggest winners are likely to sit where AI cannot reach. Real assets. Energy. Commodities. Precious metals. Scarce land.
And there's something deeper than the economics. The Japanese have a word for it: ikigai. The reason you get up in the morning. Your vocation. Your purpose. The work that makes you feel needed. AI is coming for that too. Nobody has yet figured out what a healthy society does when most of its members no longer feel needed by anything.
I might be wrong. I hope I am.
If I'm not, the world is about to change faster than most people are ready for.
João Fé retweeted
The theorem of correctness for a program is currently larger than the program itself. Hopefully the underlying tech improves (e.g. with automated tactics everyone understands) to the point where correctness statements are just 2-3x today's type signatures.
I think at this point every Canadian wants the US to take over. Or China. Anything really.
New 30 km/h area speed limit signs will be posted at neighbourhood entry and exit points. Once you enter a signed area, the 30 km/h speed limit applies throughout the local road network until you leave that area.
Slower speeds help reduce the risk of serious collisions and make neighbourhood streets safer.
Learn more about the change: toronto.ca/LocalSpeed
ALT Two men walking and chatting on a sidewalk, one pushing a baby stroller near a white picket fence and brick house.
Tourism is a sign of an economy that cannot compete with others.
Europe’s economy is getting behind African’s and Asian’s.
I came out for breakfast. I started smelling something weird. I look, a couple of Indians arrived. Please save us.
@D_Tarczynski what are you doing about this? Every time I come to Poland I see more Indians than before.
