john (reply guy)

As long as $BTC’s spot order book liquidity keeps rebuilding like this, I wouldn’t get too comfortable waiting for $60K. When BTC started the bear market last October, combined spot depth was around 13M. Today it’s close to 120M. Nearly 10× the resting liquidity within 1% of price. When the spot order book is thin, sellers don’t need much to send price considerably lower. Falling prices then trigger liquidations, forcing even more selling into an already thin book. Precisely what we saw during the bear market. But with nearly 10× the liquidity depth, there’s more capacity to absorb any aggressive bears without forcing price down as far. So why should we expect the next correction to be as violent as the declines over the last 12 months? My view remains that we’re building towards a higher low in the $70Ks before another expansion. Further downside fits that view perfectly well. A return to $60K is a very different argument. And the more these books rebuild, the less interested I am in waiting for it to add to my positions.

Going to be interesting to see what games the market makers are about to pull around FOMC. $BTC has a clear cluster of long liquidation levels sitting below the range, around $78K. With the meeting coming up, I wouldn’t get too comfortable assuming the $79.5–80K support zone holds through the announcement. If we lose that support, those longs become an easy downside target for them. A move through the recent lows would probably trigger some forced selling and carry price into that area. That would also fit the outlook of setting a deeper higher low in the $70Ks before another leg up. If we’re going to move higher in the weeks to come, using the event to clear out some of those longs below the range wouldn’t surprise me at all.

The more I study $ZEC’s cycles, the funnier the “$1,700 was the top” takes get.