Jonas Roth

The first hours of the current strikes against #Iran already show important differences from the 12-Day War; in timing, objectives, coordination, and the scale of escalation. What we know so far: 🔹The attacks began with explosions reported across Tehran. Early reports indicated ~30 targets in the first wave, including leadership residences, intelligence facilities, and reportedly even the Supreme Leader’s office. 🔹Unlike the 12-Day War, which began with nighttime strikes, this operation started early in the morning, on the first day of Iran’s calendar week. The timing suggests an attempt to maximize operational disruption and leadership exposure from the outset. 🔹Target selection points to a decapitation strategy. Initial strikes appear aimed at leadership nodes and Iran’s security apparatus rather than purely military infrastructure. 🔹U.S. involvement marks a major shift. This time, Washington appears directly engaged from the beginning, with American officials reportedly describing the campaign as extensive and closely coordinated with Israel. 🔹Donald Trump framed the operation as defending Americans and removing immediate threats, but his remarks supporting the Iranian people against the regime strongly suggest regime change is an underlying objective. 🔹The operational concept appears phased: early missile strikes targeting leadership and air defenses, including sites in southern Iran such as Chabahar, likely intended to clear the way for later air force operations against missile bases and strategic assets. 🔹Iran’s response has been unusually rapid. Missile launches reportedly began within a couple of hours, with reported strikes in Tel Aviv and Haifa. The Iranian statements signaled that no “red lines” remain and that full-force retaliation is underway. 🔹This suggests predelegated response authority: rather than waiting for centralized coordination, Iranian forces appear instructed to maintain continuous firepower against Israel from the outset. 🔹Another key difference: Iran has already expanded the confrontation beyond Israel. Reports of explosions in GCC states indicate strikes targeting U.S. bases, signaling direct confrontation with Washington from the start. 🔹This contrasts sharply with June 2025, when Iran’s strike on Al Udeid in Qatar was largely symbolic and designed to facilitate de-escalation before a ceasefire. 🔹Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthis have announced renewed attacks in the Red Sea, meaning the conflict has already begun evolving into a multi-front regional confrontation. 🔹Overall, the early pattern suggests a far more coordinated, expansive, and escalatory conflict than the 12-Day War, with regime decapitation, direct U.S. participation, rapid Iranian retaliation, and immediate regional spillover. 🔹The key question now: whether escalation stabilizes into controlled exchanges or whether the removal of previous “red lines” pushes the conflict into a prolonged regional war.