Georgia early vote through Sat 10/24: 1.75M ballots cast. By L2's modeled party, that electorate is 53.5% Dem, 38.4% GOP, 8.1% non-partisan (D+15.0).
Here's what that says about the final composition of the electorate using historical GA data. 🧵
The reason they differ is in 2022, Democrats voted early faster (46% in by now vs 39% of Republicans), so GOP voters closed the gap late. In 2024, Republicans front-loaded (58% vs 55%), leaving less GOP vote to come.
For scale, L2's final electorates were R+1.4 in 2022 and D+5.0 in 2024. That puts the 2026 pace 8 to 18 points more Democratic than 2022, and 2 to 12 points more Democratic than 2024.
@Peoples_Pundit
@NilesGApol
@ZacharyDonnini
Jonathan retweeted
SECRETARY RUBIO: We believe that Europe can awaken from its long slumber – and rekindle the fire that was lit here millennia ago.
Jonathan retweeted
Her children were also scared while their mom slowly executed each of them one by one
Lindsay Clancy 'Scared' and 'Nervous' Amid Jury Deliberations tmz.com/2026/08/27/lindsay-c…
Jonathan retweeted
I spent hundreds if not thousands of hours at Taco Bell with my friends eating burritos and drinking baja blast when I was in high school. It always came to $5.18 exactly. Before I was 16 and employed, I used to literally count out change and stuff it all in my pocket. I just checked what it would cost now, and it’s like twice as expensive.
Not really afraid of being cornered by muh “erm, what are you, ENTITLED?”
Yeah, I am. I do actually feel entitled to the same standard of living that I once had, and that my parents and grandparents CERTAINLY had. And I’m certainly not going to be gaslit by the same people who oversaw our decline into just accepting it.
Their spiritual leftism is evident. “REAL men make their own burritos” just as “REAL men aren’t scared of crackheads on the subway.” Give me a break.
I get that you’re MARRIED and a FATHER and that’s really freaking based, and I hope you enjoy making budget burritos at home, but young people aren’t going to accept that they’re not allowed to enjoy their youth in the same ways they implicitly understand previous generations were able to.
There is an Al’s Toy Barn aisle of these Tough Love Conservative DadsTM who curiously only apply that animosity towards young white men. In the next breath, they praise the immigrants who leech off our country for “just wanting a better life.” Even romanizing their “work ethic” because they keep seeing them in construction vests.
The CPI (Chipotle Price Index) does actually matter regardless of how you’d like to stomp your feet. Fortunately, Trump & Vance are aware of this fully, and in particular of how to actually address these concerns properly. But Neocons want to spoil it for one last chance to really stick it to the young people who hate them for failing to stop literally any of our problems. Enjoy it while you can I suppose.
Jonathan retweeted
Rape gangs are not some kind of aberration. Ask any combat veteran what they saw in Afghanistan. The sexual torture and slavery of children is utterly commonplace in Muslim countries. It’s part of their “culture.” Which is why it’s suicidal to import that culture into the west.
Jonathan retweeted
4 days until the Georgia runoffs! Try the beta-version of our simulator to predict the results of the Republican runoffs for Senate and Governor. Submitted predictions will compete on a public leaderboard, you can also compete with friends in a private caucus:
mycampaign.io/runoffs
GA Republican Senate and Governor precinct results. Really curious to see who will clean up in CD-1 in the Senate runoff.
RT @juliegraceb: 🚨Mike Collins has fired top campaign staffer Brandon Phillips in the wake of today’s inflammatory tweets, per a source fam…
Jonathan retweeted
Replying to @jonathanelecmap
In the future, please make me red instead of blue.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Jonathan retweeted
#GAGov GOP primary by congressional district (per @jonathanelecmap). Things were VERY inconclusive in the metro ATL CDs (no clear leader in 4+6+11) but Jones cleans up everywhere else. Where do everyone else's voters go and do the dynamics of a runoff favor Jones or Jackson?
Many saying this isn't an indicator. It is. While its not perfectly predictive, a simple linear model with Georgia's generic Congressional vote as Y (from @SplitTicket_ ) and primary turnout advantage as X has an R^2 of 0.50, and predicts a shift from R+5.2% in '24 to R+1.3%.
The Georgia Lieutenant Governor Republican Primary has one of the coolest precinct maps I've seen in a while. Notable that Kennedy, Dolezal, Tiller, Clark, and Gooch all won handily in their respective State Senate/House districts.
I received a file with all 2,133 polling locations in Georgia for the May 19th primary. Using that file, here are some interesting stats on demographic access to polling places! The Poisson regression shows that differences are mostly due to urbanicity.
Jonathan retweeted
BREAKING: Pope Leo XIV on Trump’s warning to Iran of “civilization” destruction —
“This is truly not acceptable. Here there are certainly questions of international law, but even more than this a question of morality for the good of people.”
He adds the war is “continuing to escalate and is not resolving anything… is only provoking more hatred throughout the world.”
“attacks on civilian infrastructure are against international law, but it is also against sign of the hatred and division that we are capable of.”
Video @Reuters



























