Christ first, family second, then everything else. Posting mostly politics but sometimes sports, airplanes, bourbon, or whatever else has my attention.
Murfreesboro, TN
Joined January 2014
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Imagine our great-grandchildren learning how short sighted we were to not wholeheartedly support the greatest POTUS of our generation, who took on the challenges that were unpopular and even self-destructive, because he was too narcissistic or crass or even self-indulgent. Who cares? He’s a leader, not a politician. His goal has always been the preservation of our way of life, not control of Congress. History will judge those who voted in communism but will celebrate the POTUS who saved us from annihilation.
The math maths.
THE 15% BAND
Look at this chart.
59 races. Senate and governor.
States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024.
The solid lines are 2024.
The dashed lines are 2026.
The shaded bands are what moved.
One formula fits all of it:
Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024
Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024
For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side.
The numbers:
Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share
Governor: ~86%
Variation explained: 88%
What makes it strange:
It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero.
The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races.
Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853.
Why seats flipped:
At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped.
What this means:
Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere.
A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out.
The numbers raise the question.
The ballots can answer it.
It’s been two days without it but finally our Celtics play basketball again tonight hosting Chicago. ☘️
Jonathon McGuire retweeted
My sources are telling me Talarico is in a mental health facility. His campaign has stopped actively planning events in the vital homestretch of the campaign.
If this is true, this is actually a time to pray for Talarico. We should, of course, savagely mock his smug, awful campaign advisors, by all means...and while yes, of course, this would be disqualifying for Talarico's aspirations to be a Texas Senator, we must hold empathy for anyone undergoing crisis. Campaigns are brutal, and not everybody is cut out for it. You need very thick skin. As much as I don't want Talarico anywhere near government, I also don't want wish him harm, and no political office is worth having a breakdown. His awful advisors are at fault for this. They pushed him to be something he isn't, and it didn't work.
I'm praying that this isn't true, and he's OK. You want to win these fights on the battlefield of ideas, not the minefield of poor health.
This is ridiculous - @IndianaFever games (which I watch for @CaitlinClark22 as well as @Kelz_Hoop, @sophaller, @aa_boston and others) averaged 1.9x higher than the other first round games and these idiots don’t even feature one single Fever player on this graphic? I really don’t understand.
Stephanie White is the worse coach of any professional sport in history. #fever