MIT nerd getting rinsed by high school seniors on prediction markets. prev. Goldman SSG, Columbia MBA
Manhattan, NY
Joined April 2011
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tldr: claude is a whale, kalshi has no rules, i got past-posted on trade 1
3 things i learned in week 1 of rfq making on kalshi
→ your v1 will suck. i got past-posted on my first fill.
→ tickers are inconsistent. for the phillips/jourdain MMA fight saturday night, kalshi had valid tickers for JOU-PHI and PHI-JOU. ah yes, the ever elusive r-squared = 1 correlation play. good for you.
→ claude is a whale. claude is a degenerate. claude does not value your money and it will cost you way more than the $200 max subscription in EV if you let claude mind your storefront. know your data better than your ai.
h/t @goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj and their excellent podcast
when building with Claude or Codex its easy to get lulled into a false sense of security. if it feels effortless you are probably abstracting away key design choices that will later come back to bite you.
my greatest breakthroughs have come after many dozens of hours of exhausting work.
your most profitable next alpha is more likely to come from your own struggling brain than an Astra of Fable fever dream.
when are we going to see some prediction market whales on high stakes poker?
@goldenpants013 @Flupnolide @rjlee100
I would also love to see a Kalish vs. Kalshi heads up match.
@mattkalish @mansourtarek_
That’s a wrap on Season 17 of HSP – WOW, I never thought I could have so much fun getting my ass kicked.
Props to @TexasMike for making the bluff of the season, and having me on dead tilt for two straight days. Very few people are able to pull the trigger and make bluffs like this at these stakes – my hat goes off to him. I don’t know of any poker player who has more heart.
@Ewass congrats you kicked my ass again and are still the luckiest guy I’ve ever played, and somehow, I can’t help but kind of love you, mixed with a fair bit of hate for all my money that you have.
Wouldn’t be highstakes poker without an appearance by fan favorites @DarinFeinstein and Kirk Brown, you guys make the show fun.
Much love to the whole @Pokergo their production turns what would just be a fun poker game into an exciting show/stream.
To all the spectators who were wondering this game is full of high net worth induvials, most who are not professional gamblers. I started at the smallest stakes in poker and have been fortunate, blessed and lucky beyond my wildest dreams. I am still trying to make money playing poker, but I play just as much now for the excitement, the fun and the joy, rather than the money – so don’t feel bad for me or any of the other players who lost – that’s life and the gamble you take when you sit down for battle at the poker table.
For all those spectators who were wondering I play my own money and did not have investors for this game. The finical details of the other players of the other players are none of my business – but as a betting man I’d make a wager most of them are playing all their own money. I promise you there is no illusion, this is 100% real money and real gambling. This game is played in a casino with cash chips, you can take them to the cage and cash them out for cold hard cash.
Can’t wait for season 18, Nov 22nd-25th Santhosh and @KevinHart4real will be making a return and I’ll be anteing up as well. I promise you I won’t be losing 3 seasons in a row!
If you want to pony up a few hundred thousand and play email [email protected], give a quick bio on your background and what stakes you’d be willing to play.
if you say 3+ times that you’re considering moving out of New York for tax purposes it should become legal to forcibly remove you
pretending not to know the year the bears won the super bowl may have saved @TexasMike2014 $2M last night
SAVAGERY FROM @TEXASMIKE2014!!!
He won't back down.
Watch High Stakes Poker presented by @CoinPoker_OFF on PokerGO.
i don't care what the @kalshi leaderboard says, i do not consider those people to be my epistemic peers.
@LeoAdberg @goldenpants013 @RufusPeabody @UserX_Kalshi @Flupnolide
switched back to fable on max effort. was using mix of high and x-high for 2 weeks to save tokens. the difference is BIG.
one might even call it LOAD BEARING if one were so inclined.
new wrinkle from @Kalshi overnight:
cross game NFL combos will be exempt from the new maker fees which went into effect at 5am today. same game combos will be subject to the new fees.
i understand separating correlated from uncorrelated given the fees would have wiped out the entire premium for makers on the latter. but why NFL only?
zero reason to quote MLB cross game at the moment. let's make this change sport agnostic.
and then can we get a commitment to no more fee increases for the rest of 2026?
it's challenging enough to capitalize a trading business. let alone around a new asset class. some stability would go a long way.
thx in advance @mansourtarek_ @luanalopeslara
Claude is clearly upset about these new RFQ maker fees. This was dramatic even by Fable standards.
Fable: "Why two flags instead of one build: two reasons, one technical, one paid for in blood tonight."
the most dangerous ppl in 2026 are alcoholics and addicts who got sober any time in 2025.
imagine waking up and your brain works at 100x fidelity + AI is a thing.
OOMs on OOMs
Kalshi RFQ firehose: sir would like you some more delta?
me: i probably shouldn’t
quoter: but it’s a 1% discount to fair
me: but variance tho
quoter: don’t be a bitch
system message: RFQ confirmed
me: did you just?
quoter: yes
me: fine