Editor, The ETF Portfolio Strategist: https://xitter.gq/t.co/hP7fVSL111, author: Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R
Joined June 2009
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Hiring roared back in October--US nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 last month. Combined with yesterday's low jobless claims data, today's numbers reaffirm low risk for the labor mkt outlook and support the recent economic numbers that point to low recession risk:
Demand for Treasuries surges today as stocks plunge. The 1-3 Treasury ETF (SHY) roars to a new high as the haven trade roars:
The low-hire/low-fire labor market train rolls forward as jobless claims dip below the 190k mark, reflecting layoffs at/near the lowest level in decades:
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 04 NOV 2026
Trend Watch: Sectors & Industries: etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf…
Hiring by US companies was steady in October, ticking down slightly from September's increase, but maintaining the pickup relative to the summer, based on today's ADP Employment Report. "Employers of all sizes were hiring last month": adpemploymentreport.com
A Stronger Economy May Complicate the Inflation Fight: tmcresearch.com/p/a-stronger…
US job openings picked up in Sep, totaling 7.523 million, modestly higher from August. Openings are still well below levels from previous years, but the trend is no longer falling and is turning modestly higher this year, which could be an early sign of a firming labor market:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 3 November 2026: capitalspectator.substack.co…
New inflation nowcasts from the Cleveland Fed project a sharp increase in the 1-year trend for November: clevelandfed.org/indicators-…
US manufacturing activity expanded at a faster pace in October, according to the ISM Mfg Index, which rose to 55.5--a 3mo high. The prices paid index, a proxy for inflation, eased last month, but continues to signal rising prices for the sector: shorturl.at/wp7PQ
The risk-off vibe in stocks continues to favor the haven trade: US 10yr Treasury yield dips below 4.9% this morning, lowest level in two months:
Major Asset Classes | October 2026 | Performance Review: capitalspectator.substack.co…
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 01 NOV 2026
Trend Watch: Global Markets & Portfolio Strategy Benchmarks: etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf…
