Building @functionSPACEHQ | allergic to binary opinions

Joined January 2023
Igor retweeted
Trade what happens next with KuCoin Predictions Now. From headlines to market-moving events, put your views into action. Skip the Web3 friction. Access polymarkets directly in KuCoin CEX and trade with your KuCoin USDT balance. KuCoin Predictions is exclusively available on KuCoin App. Update your app to version 5.0.0 or later or download the App Now. Learn more -> kucoin.com/announcement/en-k…
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What type of people are successful on Kalshi? We commissioned an independent third party to study our top traders. Here’s what they found: Top traders are not limited to privileged or financial backgrounds. -79% went to public school -They are over 2x as likely to have worked retail or service jobs than on Wall Street -65% are self-taught The majority of top traders: : -Actively seek out primary documents for research -Actively seek out conflicting sources to challenge their beliefs -Outperform the public on numeracy tests The findings echo the foundational work of Philip Tetlock: the best forecasters are not subject matter experts. They tend to be otherwise-ordinary people who are intellectually humble, willing to do research, and think probabilistically instead of emotionally.
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The problem I understood with 95% prediction market projects failure is that they target the same CT traders who post the content. What about Reddit, Telegram, Discord servers, or DeFi dashboard partnerships? The same set of KOLs would get you the same set of traders which are trading on Polymarket or Kalshi. Try something else.
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Introducing perpetual prop trading for stocks on over.computer. Get instantly funded to trade tokenized stocks with up to $50k on @solana and soon on @Seeker We rebuilt risk model from ground up. Fewer trading restrictions. No evaluation. No daily max loss. No trading fees. 3 days to trade. Get paid. Built with the best @privy_io @Helius @PhoenixTrade @ritualnet Season 1: The Human Benchmark is live. over.computer get in. docs.over.computer read how it works.
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Igor retweeted
Arbitrum just enabled Programmable Markets Blockchain-based protocol @functionspaceHQ goes live on @Arbitrum. The protocol is creating an on-chain primitive to engineer programmable markets for any metric measurable in the physical world or cyberspace. With this architecture, developers can integrate custom prediction and outcome-settlement functionality into consumer apps, games, and company interfaces without requiring users to navigate third-party exchanges. The technology utilizes the scalability benefits of Arbitrum’s rollup solution, ensuring constant liquidity and instant settlement for customized event contracts.
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functionSPACE is launching on @arbitrum!
Markets on any number you can measure, built for the programmable economy.
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Want early access to the apps being built on functionSPACE and a spot in our private beta markets?
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Most of the world's information is quantitative: earnings, vote share, rainfall, benchmark scores. Yet prediction markets reduce it all to yes or no. functionSPACE lets you forecast the whole distribution. Read more about it:
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functionSPACE has raised $1.7M in pre-seed funding to build the economic primitive for pricing numerical outcomes, led by @Maven11Capital and @blockwall_vc with participation from @smape_capital.
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Something big is coming.
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TODAY, EVERYONE GETS TO TRADE WHEN — NOT IF
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Igor retweeted
Introducing an upgraded build of Blanket! Improved matching, specific weather markets, more analytics, and an improved UI. Moreover, S&P 500 companies are matched with real and hypothetical KPI markets in Wedgebook. Try it out. xitter.cf/lzminsky/status/208717…
Introducing Blanket! Blanket helps small businesses find relevant @Kalshi markets for hedging risk and running promotions. Describe your business risks and it will help identify the Kalshi markets that fit. Blanket is a research product and will be open sourced after testing.
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Prediction Index v2 is live 🪶 We've been mapping the prediction market ecosystem for a while now. 315+ projects, $110B in volume tracked. As the market matures, we think the volume story is well told. The more interesting story is calibration, or how well these markets actually read the world. @Kalshi studied 2M+ of its own markets and found events priced at 70% happen about 70% of the time. @Polymarket's published accuracy runs 90% a month out (98.5% four hours out). In v2, we turn PredictionIndex into a prediction market research desk and AI-native index provider. Our indices read what the crowd is pricing and ask frontier AI the same questions. We cover geopolitics, finance, compute, gaming, sports and culture. In the coming weeks, for traders, expect research, video, contrarian views, plus the takes we'll probably regret later. For builders, we'll publish deep dives into a handful of projects we think are worth watching closely. All of it, in your inbox 👉 predictionindex.xyz ps. sound on for teaser 🔥
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The team @SynthdataCo are both pioneers and innovators. This is an important bit of analysis about the power of well built trading infrastructure, concentrating liquidity to upend where price discovery happens. Frontier Markets.
1/ Synth's HFT team has found that @Kalshi’s 15-min BTC market is beginning to predict subsequent BTC moves on @binance and all other CEXs. And strength of this predictive relationship has grown materially throughout 2026 (see image). @Kalshi is becoming the venue for BTC price discovery on short time horizons. 🧵
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1/ Synth's HFT team has found that @Kalshi’s 15-min BTC market is beginning to predict subsequent BTC moves on @binance and all other CEXs. And strength of this predictive relationship has grown materially throughout 2026 (see image). @Kalshi is becoming the venue for BTC price discovery on short time horizons. 🧵
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Igor retweeted
We're building a research program to build the ontology for Frontier Markets. More contributors and reviewers are welcome. DMs and invites to GC open. Frontier Markets. slampaper.xyz
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Building a prediction market designed to make every second of trading exciting. This is @rocketmarketsfi
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The Trepa team are true pioneers. While most aimed to replicate Polymarket's success in on-chain markets, Trepa dared to innovate and push the boundaries of novel marchet mechanics and trading products. We wish them all the best. Frontier Markets.
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Everyone has an opinion about the future. the real question is... Can prediction markets help us make better decisions? or are they just another source of noise? we're bringing the builders together to explore where prediction markets are already making an impact and where they still have a long way to go. @VizoExchange | @vibe_trading | @functionspaceHQ | @jackpotterCOM Topic: Do prediction markets actually help us see the future better? Set reminder: xitter.cf/i/spaces/1rxmqqBonwMxy… Come challenge the speakers. #AMA #prediction
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I needed to move a sofa. I mentioned this to an American. He said, "You know anybody with a truck?" I did not know anybody with a truck. He looked at me with real concern. Not pity. Concern. The way you look at a man who has told you he does not have a name. "You gotta know somebody with a truck." I asked how one acquires such a person. He said, "You just do." This is the third time I have received that answer in this country. It is the answer to everything here. You just do. There is no process. There is only the eventual fact of having. He said, "Ask Kevin." I do not know a Kevin. He said Kevin like I should. He said it the way you say a shared uncle. I met Kevin four days later. Kevin owns a truck. Kevin does not own a truck for himself. Nobody owns a truck for themselves. Kevin owns a truck for a fifteen mile radius. Inside I said: THIS MAN HAS TAKEN A VOW. HE DID NOT ANNOUNCE IT. HE SIMPLY PURCHASED A BED AND ACCEPTED THE CONSEQUENCES. Kevin arrived on Saturday. He brought the truck. He also brought a second man. I had not asked for a second man. The second man's name is Tony. Tony came because Kevin came. Tony did not know me. Tony did not ask what we were moving. Tony brought gloves. They moved the sofa in eleven minutes. I offered them money. Both of them laughed at the same time, which felt rehearsed and was not. I asked what I owed them. Kevin said, "Buy the pizza." That is the price. That is the entire economy. The truck costs one pizza and the pizza is not negotiable and the pizza is also not expensive and everyone knows what size. Inside I said: THE FEE IS FIXED ACROSS THE ENTIRE NATION AND WAS SET BY NO ONE. We ate on the floor because the sofa was against the wall and none of us wanted to be the first to sit on it. Tony told me his daughter plays soccer. I asked if she is good. He said, "She's aggressive." I still think about that. Three weeks later, Kevin texted me. "You free Sunday? Helping Tony move a fridge." He did not ask if I wanted to. He informed me of a fridge. Inside I said: I HAVE BEEN CALLED UP. I DID NOT ENLIST. THE PAPERS WERE FILED ON MY BEHALF. I went. I moved the fridge. I have no truck. I contributed only arms. Afterward, a man I had never met asked me if I knew anybody with a truck. I said, "Yeah, I got a guy." I have a guy. I am somebody's guy now, too. Tony has told two people about me. He describes me as "the guy who's strong for his size." I have never been prouder of a sentence in my life.
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