Kyle Bear retweeted
Social media is full of posts about how sardines are awesome for you. My cat won't touch them. Thats all I need to know.
That doesn’t happen 😮
Goldman JUST Warned the Banks Are WEEKS Away from RUNNING OUT OF CASH
Goldman Sachs just issued a massive warning: commercial banks are dangerously close to running out of cash reserves. At the exact same time, the Fed is threatening more rate hikes while quietly restarting Treasury bill purchases to keep the plumbing from freezing up. Between drained liquidity, a stalling money market buyer base, and an explosive $800B AI circular debt bubble, the financial system is walking a razor-thin tightrope.
Full 17 Minute Video: youtu.be/16kgt5Z74AE
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Kyle Bear retweeted
Goldman JUST Warned the Banks Are WEEKS Away from RUNNING OUT OF CASH
Goldman Sachs just issued a massive warning: commercial banks are dangerously close to running out of cash reserves. At the exact same time, the Fed is threatening more rate hikes while quietly restarting Treasury bill purchases to keep the plumbing from freezing up. Between drained liquidity, a stalling money market buyer base, and an explosive $800B AI circular debt bubble, the financial system is walking a razor-thin tightrope.
Full 17 Minute Video: youtu.be/16kgt5Z74AE
Kyle Bear retweeted
People say don't buy a home right now. Wait. Prices are going to CRASH! Blah blah.
If you follow this "advice" you're effectively timing the market.
Instead, be ultra-picky and if/when you find a suitable property, ask for everything.
Price cut, rate buydown, seller concessions, repair requests, RE agent rebate, etc.
Kyle Bear retweeted
Banks don't lend out your deposits.
When a bank writes you a mortgage, it creates a new deposit in your name and a matching loan asset.
The money didn't exist that morning.
The Bank of England said so plainly in 2014.
Loans create deposits, not the other way round.
Kyle Bear retweeted
Sixty Years Above 2%, and Now the Fed Panics?
Services always run hot. Goods are doing their job. Oil is the shock.
Wall Street and the Fed are freaking out over services inflation, a number that has run above 2% for most of modern history. Since 1960, PCE services prices have topped 2% in 86% of months. Even in the 2010s, the decade we now remember as "too low" inflation, services ran above 2% three-quarters of the time. Today they sit at 3.5%, a flat 3.3 to 3.5% band for a year and well below the 6% peak of 2023.
The 2% target was never met because services behaved. It was met because goods deflated. From 1995 to 2019, core goods CPI ran at or below 2% in 96% of months and below zero 41% of the time. In the 2010s, the median was negative.
Look at the latest CPI. Core goods are running at just 0.7% year over year and rose only 0.2% in October. They've drifted down from 1.4% over the past year. Used cars are down 3.3% and new vehicles are up 0.7%. Tariff-sensitive items like furniture and appliances ticked up for the month, but furnishings are just 0.2% over the year. This is the old pattern returning: goods anchor, services carry.
The 4.6% jump in all-goods inflation is the oil shock. Energy goods are up 35%, and gasoline is up 37%. That's a negative supply shock, and the Fed's overnight rate can't drill a well, reopen a shipping lane or end a war.
Hiking into this mistakes supply for demand. Higher rates choke housing supply, which keeps shelter sticky, while Main Street and the cyclical economy outside AI pay the price.
The Fed is a sledgehammer, not a fine-tuning machine. Look past the oil shock, respect a century of services history, and let productivity do the work.
🤖 Made with AI
Fed's Goolsbee calls inflation report 'borderline disturbing' as central bank weighs more hikes cnbc.com/2026/11/11/goolsbee…
Kyle Bear retweeted
OF COURSE it was feet
Former NFL HC Rex Ryan was arrested Wednesday morning in Nashville after allegedly running over the feet of two pedestrians with his pickup truck last week.
Police say Ryan continued driving before the pedestrians caught up to him at a red light. He allegedly got out, argued with them, and drove away without exchanging information.
Ryan faces six misdemeanor charges, including leaving the scene of an accident, failing to provide information or aid, and failing to obey traffic signals.
Kyle Bear retweeted
@malcolm_reavell As it's the season I'm proposing that we try an experiment. When we get the monopoly sets out over the festive period we introduce a "full funding" house rule. The bank has no money other than that which it collects in tax and anything else comes from bond sales
Kyle Bear retweeted
Do you know what's really upsetting about this Cowboys defense? It's how so many players we had high hopes for are underperforming.
So. Many.
Rashan Gary
DaRon Bland
Shavon Revel Jr.
Jaishawn Barham
Malachi Lawrence
Donovan Ezeriuaku
DeMarvion Overshown
Kyle Bear retweeted
You've missed her point entirely.
Monopoly assumes a fixed pool of wealth that players can only acquire from one another. Capitalism allows people to create wealth that never existed before.
And you're attributing to capitalism the consequences of government intervention in a mixed economy.
Subsidies, bailouts, regulatory barriers, and political favoritism protect established businesses from competition and help concentrate economic power.
Capitalism allows wealth to accumulate through production and voluntary trade, but also allows competitors to challenge established fortunes and consumers to take their business elsewhere.
The concentration of wealth doesn't establish exploitation, and inequality doesn't establish poverty.
Most importantly, economic success doesn't grant someone the legal authority to compel others. Political power does.
Your Monopoly analogy actually resembles the system of government privileges you're defending far more than the free market you're condemning.
Kyle Bear retweeted
NDX 100 has reclaimed its 200 DMA which is upward sloping.
Intermediate bull trend is intact.
Game on. Ignore the doomers.
💯🎯
The Phillips Curve gave policymakers exactly what they wanted: a scientific alibi for printing money. The theory, built from A.W. Phillips' 1958 study of UK wage data, claimed a stable trade-off existed between inflation and unemployment. Push inflation up, unemployment falls. The Federal Reserve and Keynesian advisors from Cambridge to Washington treated this as settled science.
Then the 1970s arrived and burned the whole model down.
Between 1973 and 1975, U.S. unemployment climbed from 4.6% to 8.5% while CPI inflation simultaneously surged past 11%. This was not supposed to happen. The Phillips Curve said you got one or the other. Now you got both?
Richard Nixon had closed the gold window in August 1971, freeing the Fed to monetize debt without constraint, and Arthur Burns obliged with years of credit expansion. The result, they named stagflation, a word Keynesian economists had to invent because their models had no room for the concept.
Milton Friedman warned Congress in 1968 that the trade-off was an illusion. Workers, he argued, would eventually expect inflation and demand higher wages to compensate, eliminating any employment gain. The short-run curve would shift. Friedman was correct on the mechanism, though the deeper point goes further: inflation is a tax on your savings, your wage, your planning horizon.
Unemployment is not a price phenomenon you can adjust with monetary dials. It follows from capital misallocation, regulatory rigidity, and distorted price signals. The Fed flooding credit markets in the late 1960s created an artificial boom in sectors that could not sustain real demand. The bust produced real unemployment, then more inflation on top of it.
By 1980, CPI hit 13.5%, and unemployment reached 7.5% simultaneously. Turns out the curve was fictional. Just another excuse Keynesians used to justify governments printing more money. Jimmy Carter's Council of Economic Advisers kept forecasting a trade-off that the economy refused to deliver.
Stagflation exposed the entire premise that central planners can calibrate employment through monetary manipulation without consequence hitting your wallet.
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Kyle Bear retweeted
The Phillips Curve gave policymakers exactly what they wanted: a scientific alibi for printing money. The theory, built from A.W. Phillips' 1958 study of UK wage data, claimed a stable trade-off existed between inflation and unemployment. Push inflation up, unemployment falls. The Federal Reserve and Keynesian advisors from Cambridge to Washington treated this as settled science.
Then the 1970s arrived and burned the whole model down.
Between 1973 and 1975, U.S. unemployment climbed from 4.6% to 8.5% while CPI inflation simultaneously surged past 11%. This was not supposed to happen. The Phillips Curve said you got one or the other. Now you got both?
Richard Nixon had closed the gold window in August 1971, freeing the Fed to monetize debt without constraint, and Arthur Burns obliged with years of credit expansion. The result, they named stagflation, a word Keynesian economists had to invent because their models had no room for the concept.
Milton Friedman warned Congress in 1968 that the trade-off was an illusion. Workers, he argued, would eventually expect inflation and demand higher wages to compensate, eliminating any employment gain. The short-run curve would shift. Friedman was correct on the mechanism, though the deeper point goes further: inflation is a tax on your savings, your wage, your planning horizon.
Unemployment is not a price phenomenon you can adjust with monetary dials. It follows from capital misallocation, regulatory rigidity, and distorted price signals. The Fed flooding credit markets in the late 1960s created an artificial boom in sectors that could not sustain real demand. The bust produced real unemployment, then more inflation on top of it.
By 1980, CPI hit 13.5%, and unemployment reached 7.5% simultaneously. Turns out the curve was fictional. Just another excuse Keynesians used to justify governments printing more money. Jimmy Carter's Council of Economic Advisers kept forecasting a trade-off that the economy refused to deliver.
Stagflation exposed the entire premise that central planners can calibrate employment through monetary manipulation without consequence hitting your wallet.