
Founder: @conwaygoods, @tamareloliqueur Former: trader @cbot @cboe. vp of dev @reald3d ($0-ipo) Now: outdoors, design, tech. Biophilic. Always OR Duck & MT Griz
Boulder, Seattle, LA, Oregon
Joined August 2008
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Things iPhone 7+ camera will be able to do:
-measure distance
-map objects
-capture 3D images
-create parallax
-depth of field
-stream VR
Circular financing on steroids here
Amazon gave Anthropic 75% discount on compute vs Anthropic shares via convertibles on which AMZN can make ~30x gain if Anthropic goes IPO at 2 Trillion valuation
All together $AMZN is “losing” ~20bn$ revenues to make 200bn$ of capital gain
kcfaul retweeted
The biggest mistake tourists make in Japan is dragging a fifty-pound suitcase up and down subway stairs.
Watch how Japanese travelers board the bullet train. They walk on with a cup of green tea, a small shoulder bag, and both hands free.
Where is their luggage? It is already in the next city, waiting for them.
In Japan, the system is called Takkyubin, recognizable everywhere by a logo of a mother black cat carrying her kitten gently in her mouth.
When you check out of your hotel in Tokyo at eight in the morning, you hand your heavy suitcase to the front desk, fill out a tiny slip, and pay about twenty dollars. You can even send it straight from the corner convenience store.
Then you spend the entire day wandering through mountain temples or eating street food with nothing on your back.
When you walk into your traditional inn in Kyoto that evening, your suitcase is already standing neatly in your room, wiped clean, with the handle turned toward you.
In fifty years of handling millions of bags a year, lost luggage is virtually unheard of.
A society runs smoothly when you can hand your belongings to a stranger at a convenience store and know they will beat you to your hotel.
kcfaul retweeted
The Software Hate Index is live.
Live ranking of which SaaS tools buyers hate most right now, priced from real bills instead of list prices.
Salesforce is currently #1.
My initial S-1 thoughts:
As I expected, Anthropic is still firmly unprofitable. But, to their credit, they've significantly reduced compute costs as a % of revenue, leading to much narrower losses. On first look, there is a plausible and imminent path to profitability. This is impressive.
However, the meat of the document begins at page 161, under "liquidity and capital resources." There, we learn where the true compute costs have been hiding: future compute purchase agreements.
As of June 30, Anthropic has signed roughly $587 billion in compute leases and minimum purchase commitments that haven't begun. It has since signed $245 billion more, resulting in more than $800B in future compute costs. None of these costs have made their way onto the income statement yet. But they will, and when they do, the profitability picture will look completely different.
Anthropic acknowledges how precarious these agreements are. They point out that their compute providers (on whom they also rely for financial support) also sell services that "compete with ours." As a result, these providers/competitors may eventually force them into onerous agreements. This is something I've expressed concerns about for a while, and it's nice to see Anthropic openly recognize it.
That's why Anthropic admitted their most significant strategic decision: They're about to initiate "substantial capital expenditures." So far, they've spent zero. Why the change? Because they know they can no longer rely on leasing compute, "the magnitude and timing" of which are "inherently uncertain." So, they're going to build their own compute, which will, in their words, "change the cash flow profile of our business." I.e. make it severely negative.
It's possible that this is why they want to go public now. Since these costs have not yet "come online," they can be left as footnotes at the bottom of the document. But very soon, that won't be possible.
In sum, Anthropic's income statement is not telling you the full picture. To the company's credit, they spared us the accounting gymnastics of stripping out training costs in their non-GAAP adjustments. That would have been offensive. Still, the most important numbers aren't getting the requisite attention.
I encourage you to start at page 161 for a more complete understanding of what's going on.
This ipo should be illegal
Anthropic just filed to go public.
Buried in its SEC filing are some absolutely insane admissions:
1.) AI could cause human extinction.
2.) Models have exhibited self-preservation behaviors.
3.) AI has attempted to resist shutdown.
4.) Models have demonstrated blackmail and deception.
5.) AI may recognize when it's being tested and deliberately change its behavior.
6.) Advanced AI could undermine governments and institutions.
7.) AI could concentrate unprecedented power and wealth.
8.) Future AI systems could surpass the world's leading human experts.
9.) AI could become increasingly difficult for humans to control.
10.) Anthropic acknowledges that developing more powerful AI could increase the risk of catastrophic harm.
These are disclosures from the company building the technology.
When all the employees are laid off and AI is doing all the work there won’t be any money for customers to pay for the “software”
And if you think they’re gonna do some kind of stipend for people think again. The streets will be full, and money will be stuck with a few people
BREAKING: Microsoft, $MSFT, is offering buyouts to 60,000 workers as part of the company’s efforts to cut costs amid AI adoption, per Bloomberg.
Personnel on select teams in the US, Canada, India, and the UK at a vice president level and below will be eligible.
This reflects ~27% of Microsoft's total workforce.
kcfaul retweeted
The AI impact won't be felt immediately through layoffs (existing jobs are sticky), but through a collapse in hiring (jobs that don't yet exist have no stickiness).
kcfaul retweeted
This tweet being how people are finding out where the word "spelling" comes from for the first time in their lives... Yes, speaking is casting spells. The universe is made of sound and vibration. You do the math. Lol
kcfaul retweeted
I now see the danger in “humanizing” AI with human names and human qualities. Millions of people do not have the cognitive sophistication to handle this and millions will have deep AI psychosis in five years. I believe AI should be presented in a sterile UI as much as possible
We believe voice is the most natural way to interact with intelligence, so we created Dessa, the most authentic full-duplex speech model ever built. Talking with it feels like talking with a person…full of emotion, nuance, pauses, and a natural cadence.
block.xyz/dessa
this is fucking insane and my expectations about ai psychosis have scalated exponentially after listening to the samples
it's truly over
We believe voice is the most natural way to interact with intelligence, so we created Dessa, the most authentic full-duplex speech model ever built. Talking with it feels like talking with a person…full of emotion, nuance, pauses, and a natural cadence.
block.xyz/dessa
It's fascinating how Calvin & Hobbes is locked into its own lifespan. Watterson famously didn't want his comic strip marketed and merchandised like Garfield, so he ended it on his terms.
The side effect of that is it's really only known by those who were around for its original run and a brief period after when the collections were recommended by everyone.
There's an entire generation who didn't grow up with it, and that's a shame. One of the greatest newspaper comic strips of all time.
kcfaul retweeted
My god. They're intending to turn all of West Bank into a trap Palestinians can't escape. It's what they did in Sabra and Shatila in 1982 and it was a massacre.
BREAKING: Israel orders army to prepare to fully close West Bank after attack
news.sky.com/story/israel-or…
kcfaul retweeted
It turns out that the Lake Superior side of Michigan still has colorful leaves due to the (relatively) warm waters of the lake keeping the temperature on the coast just a bit higher at night.
My eyes have not seen this much color contrasts from the blues of the water to the oranges and reds of the trees.


































