KC Vijaya Kumar

It's been more than eight months since trump and netanyahu launched their war on Iran--a war which trump thought would be over within days. Where does it stand today? America has not managed to achieve any of its declared objectives; All of its military bases in the Persian Gulf are either destroyed or critically damaged; The Strait of Hormuz remains under Iran’s control. Though the US has managed to open a southern waterway, it’s not sustainable even in the medium term; Iran got hit for 40 days but the Iranian state has survived and the IRGC is now in the driving seat; More important, Iran’s nuclear programme, which was the most important declared reason for the war, remains out of the purview of talks. At home, the war has hit trump real bad as his party faced a rout in the midterm. His own Vice President distanced from the administration's policy and blamed the war on Iran as the key reason for the Republican losses. There is a revolt brewing in the MAGA base against the continuation of the war. So trump, who had threatened to annihilate Iran at the UN a few weeks ago, has taken another U-turn. He now says the war is effectively over, but the blockade would remain in place, while Qatar is continuing talks between the two sides. In the meantime, Vance has sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei to kickstart talks. This war is a bigger disaster for the US than even the war on Iraq. America cannot defeat Iran militarily. And it doesn’t have a diplomatic wayout either. If it keeps the blockade in place, Iran will try to break the blockade, escalating the crisis, dragging the U.S. back into the war. If the U.S. abandons the blockade and walks away, the Persian Gulf, as I wrote earlier here, would turn out to be an Iranian lake with the Strait of Hormuz remaining under Iran’s control. You can start a war at will. But to end it, unless you have taken a decisive victory, the other side will also have a say.