I tell stories with charts and build https://xitter.gq/t.co/WoCwOiiuzH
Europe
Joined May 2007
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Investors love to have a thesis. The thesis may be simple: American stocks, precious metals, dividend aristocrats, real estate, Bitcoin… whatever it is, when they get obsessed with a thesis, what comes next is often a single-thesis portfolio.
New read:
sovereignoptimist.com/p/i-di…
Why do I get 4x more likes and comments on Substack with 4x fewer followers?
What causes it?
I guess Substack’s business model means they don't have to rely on clickbait as much.
While Russia wastes drones on apartment buildings, Ukraine strikes like a scalpel: refineries, missile-component factories, logistics hubs, expensive military aircraft, and vehicles carrying supplies to the front.
The mindset gap is brutal.
Under Putin Russia will collapse.
It’s quite possible that in 5–10 years nobody will invest manually anymore, just as nobody will hold a steering wheel.
But it’s not guaranteed.
In the meantime, keep buying while you still have an edge.
After OpenAI solved 300 math problems at once, many people wonder whether we’re about to learn that traditional cryptography is worthless.
That would be devastating, but in that case, Bitcoin won’t be the problem we’re discussing. The security of the internet itself, critical infrastructure, the banking system, governments, military arsenals - everything depends on cryptography.
The strategy of diversification is older than humanity.
Squirrels bury food in hundreds of small caches instead of one big pantry. A thief or a bad spot costs them a little, not everything.
Even plants diversify:
Desert annual plants don’t germinate all their seeds in the same year. Some stay dormant in the soil for years, so one drought can’t wipe out the whole lineage.
klos retweeted
That’s why the 60/40 portfolio is such BS. The same thing happened during COVID, when the market was down (!). Bonds aren’t risk-free when you need them most: sovereignoptimist.com/i/1757…
Asking AI to create a Kurzgesagt-like animation is no different from asking it to paint like Picasso. The result is cool but worthless.
The first step to create some value is to remove "Kurzgesagt" from the prompt.
Kurzgesagt has 25M subs. Millions of views on EVERY single video 🤯
nobody copies them for a reason: one video takes 1,200 hours and a studio of 50+ animators.
we rebuilt their format with Opus 5.5 + @HyperFrames_ Studio. 100% code.
a full 11-minute explainer. made in ~2 hours. under $50.
want the template? we’re open-sourcing it for free 👇
I plan to revisit the chart at its anniversary.
It is relevant. It shows exactly when ChatGPT crashed the market, which hasn’t recovered since. I wrote about it last year, and the chart hasn’t changed: sovereignoptimist.com/p/the-…
Despite indexes going up like a self-fulfilling prophecy, there’s never been a better time to pick individual stocks.
Maybe LLMs solved math, but you know what else they’re good at? Going quickly through hundreds of pages of SEC filings.
Most people copy, and AI only amplifies that. "Make it similar to that" is the lazy path most people pick.
tech desperately needs a new design aesthetic
we literally have agi now and flying cars
but every ui looks the same with this apple/linear minimalist rounded corner tailwind shadcn slop look
we’re not thinking big enough on how things should look and feel
chatting with an agent should look and make me feel like i’m living in the future
it should make me feel hope and awe and optimism that humanity actually got to agi and it will lead to unimaginable prosperity
it should make me tap into my 9 year old self, who wondered if we’d *ever* have talking humanoid robots, and make me feel totally amazed by the realization that this future is not even a possibility now, it is a CERTAINTY!
the time is so ripe now
the coding agents have gotten so good that we can be experimenting and playing with new ideas 100x faster than before
now is the time for excessive experimentation
Nobody knows what the world will look like in 10 years. There is only one kind of insurance you can buy: owning the providers of AI. They’re already at the top of every popular ETF, but you can be much more intentional and replace the geriatric S&P 500 index with the top Nasdaq tickers. I buy the top four: $NVDA, $AAPL, $GOOGL, $MSFT, because this is what my backtests showed works best, and I add bitcoin:native.
