senior correspondent at Wired 🦐 Story tips: [email protected] (or DM me for Signal/WhatsApp!) extremeknibbs on Insta/Threads and @knibbs.bsky.social
Chicago, IL
Joined October 2010
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Kate Knibbs 🏄🏻♀️ retweeted
Kalshi’s Head of Markets: “Kalshi has tens of thousands of verified users in Utah with millions of dollars in open positions on the exchange.”
Those Utah accounts reportedly hold millions of contracts that have yet to settle. A revealing figure amid ongoing state enforcement.
Kate Knibbs 🏄🏻♀️ retweeted
I loved Hatchet! But there is a Hatchet for girls: Island of the Blue Dolphins!
Every time I think things can’t get wilder on the prediction market beat
Sports prediction markets are sports bets. By effectively requiring prediction markets to offer contracts in all 50 states, even on Tribal lands, the CFTC is once again violating state law and Tribal sovereignty.
Despite ongoing litigation and court orders to cease offering contracts in several states and Tribal lands as recently as today, the CFTC and its rogue chairman now appear to be encouraging platforms to continue offering gambling products in contempt of these court orders.
This is the CFTC’s most egregious attempt yet to undermine state law, the Tribes, and now, the courts. The CFTC chairman has been captured by the industry and his actions reflect only their interests.
Kate Knibbs 🏄🏻♀️ retweeted
nice piece from Rogé Karma/ @TheAtlantic about the lack of a plan to regulate AI, even data centers. campaigning against them will have been the easy part
theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/1…
Kate Knibbs 🏄🏻♀️ retweeted
CFTC tells designated contract markets that they should start serving states that they stopped serving.
Kate Knibbs 🏄🏻♀️ retweeted
SCOOP: NPR obtained Kalshi's response to the Warren/Curtis letter:
- Kalshi tagged ~200 candidates and over 14K campaign staffers "with blocks preventing trading on elections markets they are affiliated with."
-Kalshi has investigated ~60 election trades since 1/1/26. 12+ remain active probes -- of these approx. half "have been or will be referred to law enforcement."
NEW LETTER: @ewarren and @SenJohnCurtis ask @Kalshi and @Polymarket for answers on how they monitor insider trading and market manipulation on election bets ahead of the midterms:
embed.documentcloud.org/docu…
NPR had an answer to question 5b on Tuesday:
npr.org/2026/10/27/nx-s1-601…
wrote about the doctor wave: wired.com/story/the-blue-tsu…
man i wrote this a little over a year ago and so much has happened since: wired.com/story/sports-betti…
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Kate Knibbs 🏄🏻♀️ retweeted
this is why I love working at @VanityFair
yesterday, I saw half our staff clustered around our fashion correspondent's desk poring over this photo. As José puts it, "The image has several discrepancies. The style and make of the Chanel Flap bag is inconsistent with others the brand has sold, and the Valentino shoes in question appear askew in proportion; their straps have several punched holes that the authentic Valentino style does not."
AI image detectors confirmed that yes, Olivia Reingold used an AI-generated image to make her point, without a drop of disclosure. Wild!!!!
vanityfair.com/story/midterm…
Kate Knibbs 🏄🏻♀️ retweeted
We compiled all the prediction market odds (from Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US) for the Senate, House and Governor races and compared it to the actual results. Left map shows odds. Right map shows results.
Had fun collaborating to clean and build the visuals!
Kate Knibbs 🏄🏻♀️ retweeted
The biggest pro-AI super PAC network entered the midterms guns blazing—and is leaving with its tail between its legs.
New from me about the state of play of politics x big AI money, for @WIRED
wired.com/story/the-biggest-…
prediction markets taking a victory lap
Last night was special.
Election days just never get old for us at Polymarket. Watching regular people experience the beauty of market based forecasts as the results come in. How practically useful it is. How simple it is to interpret. When it clicks, it clicks.
It’s now routinely hours between when prediction markets call it versus the TV networks. The networks hold out until absolute certainty, and the suspense keeps it entertaining all night. No knock to them, but now there’s Polymarket, and many people are realizing they want to know what's happening in real time.
I know the industry has gained a mixed rap for a variety of reasons, many of which are criticisms with real merit. But I think I speak for both myself and my peers when I say we got into this because we really love the idea of markets being able to place a price on the future (e.g. Democrats had a 92% chance to take the House on Polymarket), and how that can help people better understand what's likely to happen and make decisions accordingly.
Our mission is to make sure we deliver on the promise of prediction markets, which was on full display last night. In the midst of so much noise around what we do, the American people get to see what Polymarket is really all about. Feels like one step closer to the dream. Onwards.
Kate Knibbs 🏄🏻♀️ retweeted
NEW: it's WIRED's take on the data center of it all last night, which i know everyone is doing, but i like to think i am the only reporter tracking how many guys named Derek got called "Data Center Derek" and subsequently lost their elections (2) wired.com/story/the-results-…
Kate Knibbs 🏄🏻♀️ retweeted
I assumed these numbers were still fairly small but really did not think they would be THIS small
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