Burnham and Healey are gambling that they will get another chance to do a big budget. But they may look back on this as the best opportunity they had. There are, to my mind, three possible explanations for their approach. One is that they would rather not level with their MPs and the country now. The argument goes that they will be in a better place to confront the trade-offs next autumn. But political capital is a depreciating asset. The second is that they are doing a Mr Micawber, hoping something will turn up to improve the public finances. That could be faster-than-expected growth or a big reduction in government borrowing costs. Either is always possible, but look around the world and you will see the opposite is expected. The other possibility is that they are planning an early election. That would push the reckoning beyond polling day, giving them more flexibility. As I know all too well, elections are never risk-free. The problem is that Wednesday’s budget, and the IMF’s praise for Britain, are founded on fantasy - the idea that the Labour Party will accept the tight spending limits that are meant to kick in as the next election approaches. My preference would be for a budget that cut spending, reduced business taxes and enacted growth-enhancing supply-side reform. Yet with his party in no mood for cuts, you can see why Healey is likely to avoid doing anything too bold on Wednesday. They will never have more room for manoeuvre than now. I know, having done both jobs, that you regret the decisions you don’t take far more than the ones you do. More on the budget in my @thetimes column today 👇 thetimes.com/comment/columni…

Exclusive: The chancellor will use his budget this week to protect pensioners and those saving for their retirement as he announces plans to shield nearly one million people from paying income tax John Healey is expected to confirm on Wednesday that the full state pension will rise by £489 to £13,036 - equivalent to 3.9% However, the rise will push about one million people on low incomes who rely on the state pension above the £12,570 personal allowance threshold, meaning they would be dragged into paying income tax To retain the principle that the state pension is not taxable, Healey is expected to announce a rise in the tax-free allowance for low-income pensioners to £13,036. The move will cost taxpayers £200m a year by 2030 It will rise in line with increases in the state pension over the course of this parliament. However, millions of pensioners with higher incomes - such as those who have private pensions - will still pay income tax The Times has also been told that the chancellor has decided not to reduce the tax-free pension lump sum. Pension savers can take 25 per cent of their pension tax-free from the age of 55 up to a maximum of £268,275 There were suggestions that Healey could reduce the tax-free amount to £100,000, but he has chosen to retain the current level The moves to protect pensioners and those saving for their retirement come after Andy Burnham announced plans to end the pensions triple lock - under which the state pension rises in line with inflation, wages or 2.5 per cent - in 2030 to help fund social care thetimes.com/article/47291ec…

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Exclusive: The chancellor will use his budget this week to protect pensioners and those saving for their retirement as he announces plans to shield nearly one million people from paying income tax John Healey is expected to confirm on Wednesday that the full state pension will rise by £489 to £13,036 - equivalent to 3.9% However, the rise will push about one million people on low incomes who rely on the state pension above the £12,570 personal allowance threshold, meaning they would be dragged into paying income tax To retain the principle that the state pension is not taxable, Healey is expected to announce a rise in the tax-free allowance for low-income pensioners to £13,036. The move will cost taxpayers £200m a year by 2030 It will rise in line with increases in the state pension over the course of this parliament. However, millions of pensioners with higher incomes - such as those who have private pensions - will still pay income tax The Times has also been told that the chancellor has decided not to reduce the tax-free pension lump sum. Pension savers can take 25 per cent of their pension tax-free from the age of 55 up to a maximum of £268,275 There were suggestions that Healey could reduce the tax-free amount to £100,000, but he has chosen to retain the current level The moves to protect pensioners and those saving for their retirement come after Andy Burnham announced plans to end the pensions triple lock - under which the state pension rises in line with inflation, wages or 2.5 per cent - in 2030 to help fund social care thetimes.com/article/47291ec…