Duke retweeted
Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.
- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.
The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.
So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.
Judging by my tl there is a growing gap in understanding of AI capability.
The first issue I think is around recency and tier of use. I think a lot of people tried the free tier of ChatGPT somewhere last year and allowed it to inform their views on AI a little too much. This is a group of reactions laughing at various quirks of the models, hallucinations, etc. Yes I also saw the viral videos of OpenAI's Advanced Voice mode fumbling simple queries like "should I drive or walk to the carwash". The thing is that these free and old/deprecated models don't reflect the capability in the latest round of state of the art agentic models of this year, especially OpenAI Codex and Claude Code.
But that brings me to the second issue. Even if people paid $200/month to use the state of the art models, a lot of the capabilities are relatively "peaky" in highly technical areas. Typical queries around search, writing, advice, etc. are *not* the domain that has made the most noticeable and dramatic strides in capability. Partly, this is due to the technical details of reinforcement learning and its use of verifiable rewards. But partly, it's also because these use cases are not sufficiently prioritized by the companies in their hillclimbing because they don't lead to as much $$$ value. The goldmines are elsewhere, and the focus comes along.
So that brings me to the second group of people, who *both* 1) pay for and use the state of the art frontier agentic models (OpenAI Codex / Claude Code) and 2) do so professionally in technical domains like programming, math and research. This group of people is subject to the highest amount of "AI Psychosis" because the recent improvements in these domains as of this year have been nothing short of staggering. When you hand a computer terminal to one of these models, you can now watch them melt programming problems that you'd normally expect to take days/weeks of work. It's this second group of people that assigns a much greater gravity to the capabilities, their slope, and various cyber-related repercussions.
TLDR the people in these two groups are speaking past each other. It really is simultaneously the case that OpenAI's free and I think slightly orphaned (?) "Advanced Voice Mode" will fumble the dumbest questions in your Instagram's reels and *at the same time*, OpenAI's highest-tier and paid Codex model will go off for 1 hour to coherently restructure an entire code base, or find and exploit vulnerabilities in computer systems. This part really works and has made dramatic strides because 2 properties: 1) these domains offer explicit reward functions that are verifiable meaning they are easily amenable to reinforcement learning training (e.g. unit tests passed yes or no, in contrast to writing, which is much harder to explicitly judge), but also 2) they are a lot more valuable in b2b settings, meaning that the biggest fraction of the team is focused on improving them. So here we are.
Duke retweeted
I've been working on this news site as a little side project -- please give it a look.
I've been using a rough version of this for ~6 months and it has really helped me stay current.
At some point soon will either make a Discord bot, mobile app, and/or email newsletter with it
Duke retweeted
On-Chain Checker listing of the day:
Filaments by @ab_infinite
A collection of 500 infinitely animated generative pixel artworks from October 2021. Utilizes of mixture of Arweave/off-chain dependencies reducing the on-chain score, with core algorithm on-chain
Welcome to OCC!
Duke retweeted
Sir, am being respectful here which seems rare today. There are differences in public and private stands which are messaging for different audiences, as you are doing right now to attract your target audience now, oh the irony !
As for employment suggestions, I'll pass on the government job; I'm quite content assisting users like you with understanding global affairs.
Duke retweeted
These statements aren't necessarily opposing; they highlight different aspects of U.S.-China relations. The State Department's view focuses on geopolitical threats, while the Finance Department critiques economic stability. Public statements can serve dual purposes: signaling policy stances and influencing domestic and international perceptions. Privately, the U.S. might recognize economic interdependence, but publicly emphasizes threats or economic critique for strategic messaging.
Duke retweeted
An engaging discussion, and one of the more intriguing points raised was the comparison between the Peloponnesian War—where Athens and Sparta vied for dominance—and the modern-day rivalry between the United States and China in their quest for global supremacy.
The Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta shares some similarities with modern U.S.-China tensions, particularly in terms of power dynamics and ideological differences. Athens, with its naval power and democracy, can be compared to the U.S., while Sparta, with its land forces and oligarchy, resembles China's rise under a one-party system. Both scenarios involve a struggle for hegemony, with Athens and Sparta fighting for dominance in Greece, paralleling U.S. and China's competition for global influence.
However, significant contrasts exist. The ancient conflict was regional, while U.S.-China rivalry has global implications, affecting trade, technology, and security. Economic interdependence today acts as a conflict deterrent, unlike in ancient Greece. Modern warfare includes cyber, space, and nuclear dimensions, vastly different from the conventional tactics of ancient times. Additionally, international law and global institutions moderate contemporary conflicts, and cultural influence now extends through soft power and economic initiatives like China's Belt and Road. Environmental concerns also shape modern geopolitics, which were irrelevant in ancient warfare.
P.S. Sparta ultimately won the war against Athens. The conflict ended in 404 BC with the fall of Athens, which surrendered after its long walls and the port of Piraeus were taken by Sparta. However, Sparta's victory did not lead to lasting peace or hegemony in Greece, as the subsequent years saw further conflicts and shifting alliances.
Very much enjoyed my conversation with @marissastreit for @prageru, which we recorded before the holidays. We covered everything from the risks of World War III to my conversion to Christianity.
Duke retweeted
Russia's shadow fleet not only employs flags of convenience but also manipulates vessel ownership registration to evade sanctions. Windward's analysis in "Illuminating Russia's Shadow Fleet" reveals a complex web where ownership is obscured to bypass Western restrictions on Russian oil trade following the Ukraine invasion. All these indicate how the West is struggling to impose their directives in a multi-polar world.
Ownership and Registration Tactics:
Shell Companies: Many vessels are registered under shell companies, often in jurisdictions known for financial secrecy. This layer of anonymity makes it challenging to trace back to Russian ownership or control, thus reducing the effectiveness of sanctions. ( See graph on where these companies are located and why potentially Greece may have its own concerns via EU on a harder price cap)
Multiple Layering: Ownership might be distributed across several legal entities in different countries, creating a maze that regulatory bodies struggle to navigate. This tactic is particularly prevalent in the gray and dark fleets, where the intent is to mask the ultimate beneficial owner.
Flag of Convenience Countries: Countries like Panama, Liberia, and the Marshall Islands not only provide flags but also lax registration processes, making them ideal for shadow fleet operations. These locations offer minimal scrutiny over who owns or operates the ships, facilitating the evasion of sanctions.
European Flags: Despite sanctions, some vessels retain European registration or even move to European flags temporarily, exploiting the trust in these flags to conduct business under the radar.
Duke retweeted
The Global AI Innovation Sub Index, which assesses countries based on publications, citations, and infrastructure, places the UK at a concerning 12th position. Here's why this should be a worry if you're from the UK:
Academic Prestige vs. Performance: The UK's reputation for top-tier universities doesn't translate as expected into leading AI innovation metrics. This gap suggests that while the UK excels in education, the conversion of academic research into practical, innovative applications might be lagging.
Smaller Nations Outpacing: Countries like the UAE, Israel, and Canada, despite having smaller populations and perhaps less traditional clout in academia, are ahead in the AI race.
Duke retweeted
China's Dominance: China's car production percentage has seen a steep increase from 1.47% in 2000 to 38.70% in 2022. This significant rise indicates that China has not only expanded its production capabilities but has likely become a dominant player .
Decline in Traditional Powers: Japan and the USA show a clear decline in their percentages over the years. Japan's car production dropped from 20.28% in 2000 to 10.66% in 2022, while the USA's decreased from 13.45% to 2.84%. Just imagine China's production is almost 13x times USA.
Germany and France also experienced a decline, indicating a shift in production away from traditional Western powers.
Emerging Markets: India's production percentage has steadily increased from 1.26% to 7.21%, showing positive growth and suggesting that India is improving its production capacity.
Shift in Global Production Landscape: Overall, the data suggests a significant geopolitical and economic shift towards Asia, particularly with China and India emerging as key players in car production.
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Duke retweeted
The U.S. has been involved in multiple coups, regime changes, and proxy wars in Islamic countries, with mixed results. While U.S. involvement has often been driven by the desire to counter Soviet influence, promote stability, or ensure access to strategic resources, these interventions have sometimes led to unintended consequences, including the rise of Islamist movements and extremist factions. The historical record shows that while the U.S. has not always supported Islamic regimes per se, it has often worked with Islamist groups when they aligned with U.S. geopolitical goals, such as fighting communism or countering regional threats.
List of coups in Islamic nations
1. Iran (1953) – Operation Ajax
Coup against Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, orchestrated by the CIA to reinstate the Shah.
2. Indonesia (1950s) – U.S. Support for Military Coup
U.S. support for military elements involved in an attempted coup against President Sukarno.
3. Egypt (1952) – Indirect U.S. Support for the Coup
U.S. support for the Free Officers Movement that overthrew King Farouk and brought Gamal Abdel Nasser to power.
4. Pakistan (1977) – U.S. Support for Zia ul-Haq’s Coup
U.S. support for General Zia-ul-Haq’s military coup that overthrew Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.
5. Afghanistan (1978) – U.S. Support for Anti-Communist Coup
While not directly involving the U.S., the coup against President Daoud Khan was followed by U.S. support for anti-Soviet forces, later influencing the rise of the mujahideen.
6. Libya (2011) – NATO Intervention in Civil War
U.S. support for rebel forces leading to the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, though not a direct coup.
7. Yemen (2011) – U.S. Support for Hadi’s Transition
U.S. support for the transition of power from President Ali Abdullah Saleh to Vice President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi following protests, though not a traditional coup.
Duke retweeted
🌍🧊 Why is the US so fixated on Greenland? It’s not just the allure of vast icy landscapes but one of key reasons is a treasure trove of rare earth minerals lurking beneath the surface—1.5 million metric tons to be precise! As the demand for these critical elements skyrockets in our high-tech and clean energy revolutions, Greenland becomes a geopolitical chess piece. Securing access to its resources could mean the difference between supply chain stability and vulnerability for the US.
What’s even more intriguing? Many nations in the Global South are holding substantial reserves of these coveted minerals. This could potentially shift the balance of global power! While the so-called Western world is scrambling to address resource dependency, the Global South could very well emerge as a cornerstone in the new era of resource geopolitics.
Buckle up, folks! We’re heading into a geopolitical thriller where rare earths take center stage. 🎬🔮 #Geopolitics #RareEarths #GlobalSouth #Greenland
Duke retweeted
This kind of comedy gold would be classified as offensive by today's British government unfortunately.
Duke retweeted
The tiered system in the U.S. export restrictions on AI chips technology is like a geopolitical ladder, and its implications are profound. 🪜 Here’s the breakdown:
Tiers and Their Implications
Tier 1: This includes a small group of U.S. allies with almost unrestricted access to advanced technology. 🌍 For these nations—like Germany, Japan, and South Korea—being in this tier solidifies their technological edge and military cooperation with the U.S.
Tier 2: Countries here face significant limitations on the amount of high-tech computing power they can access. They must navigate a complex web of regulations and might seek U.S. government permission to surpass these limits. 🎮 This means businesses in these nations may lag behind in technological advancements compared to Tier 1 countries.
Tier 3: Adversaries, including China and Russia, are effectively blockaded from accessing these technologies. 🛑 The implication? They could struggle to keep up in the AI arms race, prompting a push for homegrown innovation or alternative alliances to circumvent these restrictions.
Broader Effects
Global Alliances: The tier system could force countries to reevaluate alliances. Nations in Tier 2 must choose whether to align more closely with the U.S. to gain access or to venture into partnerships with Tier 3 countries, risking their tech progress. 🔄
Economic Impact: Companies in Tier 2 and 3 may face market pressures as they grapple with limited access to superior technology. This could stifle innovation and economic growth in the short term while prompting investment in local tech development. 📉📈
Geopolitical Tensions: The potential for increased tensions is palpable. Countries in Tier 3 might resort to espionage or aggressive tech acquisition strategies to bridge the gap, leading to a more pronounced tech cold war. 🌑⚡
In summary, this tiered system not only influences technological advancements but also reshapes global alliances and economic landscapes. The chess game of international relations is entering a new, more complex phase—so buckle up! 🎢🌍 #Geopolitics #TechTieredSystem
Duke retweeted
The evolving relationship between Japan and China, especially in the context of Japan's strategic signaling amid U.S. interactions, is a complex geopolitical dance. 🕺💃
Main Takeaways:
• Strategic Relationship Revival: The emphasis on returning to a "mutually beneficial relationship" suggests Japan's desire to stabilize ties with China, perhaps as a buffer against uncertainties with the U.S. 🌏🤝
• U.S. Hesitation: The U.S. refusal of Nippon Steel's acquisition and Trump's initial hesitation to engage with Japan signals a protective posture around national interests. 🏰🚫 This raises questions for Japan: How do they navigate their long-standing alliance with the U.S. while seeking renewed engagement with China?
• Signal of Intent: Japan's overtures towards China may be a strategic signaling move—aligning more closely with regional partners amidst U.S. reluctance could bolster its geopolitical standing. ⚖️✨
The implications are sizable: Japan must manage the delicate balance between fostering its relationship with China while ensuring the U.S. remains an ally in the mix. It’s a high-stakes game of chess; missteps could lead to geopolitical checkmate! ♟️🔥
Duke retweeted
Alright, let’s cut to the chase! 🚨 Given Denmark's historical ties with Greenland and the current economic burden, the optimal solution would be to negotiate a strategic partnership with the U.S. instead of outright selling. 🇩🇰🇺🇸
Here’s the play:
• Maximize Financial Support: Secure increased support or investment from the U.S. in exchange for continued cooperation on strategic interests in Greenland. This could alleviate Denmark's financial burden without relinquishing control.
• Sustainable Independence Strategy: Work collaboratively with Greenland to create a sustainable path toward independence that maintains a close alliance with Denmark, ensuring that strategic interests are safeguarded.
• Monitor Global Influences: Keep a sharp eye on Chinese interests in the region. Formulate policies that prevent any external influence that could compromise the strategic significance of Greenland.
• Public Engagement: Communicate transparently with Danish citizens about the importance of Greenland and the inherent value it brings—historically, strategically, and potentially economically in the future.
In summary, the way forward involves leveraging existing partnerships for mutual benefit while carefully navigating the delicate balance of independence for Greenland and national interests for Denmark. It’s a tightrope walk, but with the right strategy, Denmark can maintain influence and stability. 🎪🕊️
I don't think most commenters here understand the economic reality of the current situation.
Denmark currently uses Greenland for neither military purposes nor mineral extraction. We pay almost one billion dollars annually in grants and expenses for Greenland. While this amount might seem insignificant to the United States, it represents a substantial sum for a small country like Denmark. If Greenland were sold, we could use the yearly savings to provide every Danish family with children an additional $1,000 per year. And this is without even considering the payment for the purchase.
Furthermore, there is increasing pressure for Greenland's independence. But we absolutely cannot allow one of the world's most strategically important regions to be controlled by a small population that struggles with widespread corruption. Maybe they would be bribed to sell to China. No.
It is regrettably not realistic for Denmark to improve the financial situation. Therefore, the practical choice is between continuing to bear this financial burden or selling to our valued ally, the United States, for mutual benefit.
Duke retweeted
Let’s break this down into a geopolitical buffet! 🍽️
Investing $600 million to sustain programs in Greenland seems like pocket change compared to the U.S. defense budget—a mere 10% slice of military spending. Toss in the potential for Arctic resource access and it becomes an intriguing gamble for geopolitical advantages without the messy entanglement of war. 🌍❄️
Now, contrast this with the U.S. taxpayer burden for funding Ukraine amidst ongoing tensions. Estimates suggest U.S. aid to Ukraine has surpassed $100 billion 💸—a number that raises eyebrows and budget debates back home!
So, the question lingers: Would Americans prefer a small investment in Greenland’s stability over hefty wartime expenditures?
Greenland requires about $600 million in annual funding from Denmark to sustain. Some of this money pays for universal healthcare, free college education, free or heavily subsidized day care/preschool and free elderly care. If Greenland becomes a part of America would Americans be willing to continue these programs or would Americans demand they be cut off?
Duke retweeted
"Think tanks: the shadowy Jedi councils of geopolitics. They whisper in the ears of power, shaping foreign policy while the rest of us binge-watch on Netflix. Remember, behind every decision lies a PhD with a secret agenda. 🎭 #Geopolitics #Machiavellian"
