SA unemployment rate rose slightly to 33.7% in Q3 2026. Although the economy added 101 000 jobs in Q3, over the past year the level of employment fell by 215 000 people. There was also a large increase in discouraged workers. There are now 8.578 million people unemployed in SA
Strong US labour market report for October with a gain of 165 000 jobs, upward revision to prior numbers, and unemployment rate down to 4.1% despite an increase in participation. But wage growth higher than expected but still okay at 3.1%. Will raise concerns about higher rates
South Africa will be removed from the AGOA agreement with effect from 1 Jan 2027. A range of reason given by the US, but mainly SA is engaging in practises inconsistent with AGOA agreement. SA is the largest beneficiary of AGOA. Platinum exports should continue to be duty free.
SA GDP benchmarked and rebased by Stats SA. New base year is 2022, and with the inclusion of new information the economy is 4.9% bigger in base year. Areas of activity included or expanded include illegal mining, household solar, e-hailing, online gambling and online prostitution
US rates kept unchanged. Two of the FOMC members voted to increase rates by 25bps. Did the proximity of the US mid-term election have an impact on the decision given recent upward surprise to US inflation and the sustained high oil price. A rate hike of 25bps is expected in Dec.
kevin lings retweeted
From the @FT: "Cracks are appearing in America’s debt-laden $10tn AI infrastructure boom as project delays, public backlash and shaky investor confidence bring a reckoning for the data centre build-out underpinning the US economy."
IMO, what makes all these issues even more interesting is that no matter how they evolve, there are significant economic, financial, social, and geopolitical implications
#economy #markets #tech #ai
kevin lings retweeted
Tesla just drove the new Roadster upside down on a half-pipe using massive fan suction, then fired SpaceX cold-gas thrusters to flip it mid-air and stick the landing.
Gravity never stood a chance.
Brent oil price close to $110/bl. None of global supply initiatives appear to helping including the release of oil inventories. In SA there is another under recovery on SA petrol and diesel price, suggesting a further price hike in November. SA inflation heading to well over 5%
kevin lings retweeted
South Africa is heading in the right direction for its first credit-rating upgrade by Moody’s Ratings since 2009 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
kevin lings retweeted
The most likely long-term outcome of the AI boom will be massive capital destruction in the US, with market share going to cheaper open-source Chinese models, according to Jefferies. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
kevin lings retweeted
To justify today's AI capex, we'll have to spend 9% of GDP on AI services, a study finds. Is it plausible we'll spend as much on AI as on food? Twice as much as on energy? The law of diminishing returns would like a word. My column: wsj.com/tech/ai/will-america…
kevin lings retweeted
Yields on 10-year Treasuries are the highest since 2002 versus a comparable metric on the S&P 500 - the earnings yield. At a certain point, bonds will present a compelling investment proposition vs risk assets, but many investors say not yet since growth is still strong.
kevin lings retweeted
This is not the first trading session where sovereign bond yields and oil prices have decoupled. In fact, it is happening with greater frequency—a reminder that:
• The protracted surge in yields is driven by forces far beyond energy markets; and
• It is increasingly only a matter of time before borrowing costs for households and corporates face the additional headwind of even wider credit spreads.
#economy #markets
SA formal sector employment fell by 14 000 jobs during Q2 2026 and by 95 000 over past year. The job losses have been broad within private sector although mining employment has been stable over past year and construction appears to have stopped cutting jobs in the past quarter.
kevin lings retweeted
GS: We estimate that hyperscaler capex is driving roughly half of S&P 500 earnings growth this year.
As hyperscaler capex growth slows and depreciation expenses rise, the impact of AI investment spending on S&P 500 earnings growth will begin to fade and eventually become a drag.
SA Reserve Bank increased interest rates by 25bps as expected. Although the growth rate has been revised down, there are clear upside risks to SA inflation mainly as a result of the higher fuel price. At the same time an increasing number of countries are also raising rates.