btc π π buy low, sell high. be patient. no fomo. no greed. sow and reap your harvest.
Sydney, Australia
Joined January 2021
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Ousep Marchayan retweeted
the ai trade wonβt bottom until market participants finally learn *not* to value companies based on fwd pe.
a fwd pe of 40 is not necessarily expensive if earnings grow durably over decades. a fwd pe of 4 is not cheap if earnings last 18mo then go down 90%.
a companyβs value is the net present value of *all* future cash flow, not the net present value of *next yearβs* cash flow.
Ousep Marchayan retweeted
i donβt think anyone can confidently say that ai stonks are currently expensive, cheap, or fairly priced. that requires a crystal ball in future ai breakthroughs, the supply chain, credit markets, politics, and macro. and such a person simply does not exist.
however, charts, investor psychology, and positioning suggest that the ai trade was almost certainly a big bubble. and when bubbles burst, they will always overshoot.
so, what would give me the confidence to buy ai stonks in size is not βfundamentalsβ, thatβs just too hard. itβs when charts look like they are finally going thru a lengthy bottoming process, investor psyche is utterly and thoroughly damaged, and ai is dismissed as a worthless fad on cnbc.
still the most important technology of the decade but patience will be rewarded.
Ousep Marchayan retweeted
ASX is delirious. take the opportunity to get out while you can. country is a fucking shit show. big correction coming. no cunt does anything anymore. full of takers, not makers.
Ousep Marchayan retweeted
democrats want to regulate ai. @AskVenice sells the ai they can't regulate. that's the whole trade.
Ousep Marchayan retweeted
The casinoification of the market is the biggest opportunity for you, the individual investor
More than ever we are driven by short term traders whether it's retail, pods or desks just trying to show a positive quarter / immediate profit.
No one has the stomach for volatility or a lengthy time horizon which is why everyone is glued to the screen watching midterm results roll in
Broaden your time horizons and you can win
Ousep Marchayan retweeted
If you really believe in some of this stuff, i.e. Intel, Neoclouds, DRAM makers, etc, you need to be a buyer here.
When I was taking shorts I listened to people make the bull case nearly double from here on some names. As long as nothing changed this is a gift right?
Ousep Marchayan retweeted
Insanely bullish on a team who knows that dealing right away with critical questions from smart people on CT is extremely good marketing
Variational
Ousep Marchayan retweeted
Full round-trip:
1) When you are young, you want to trade time for experience.
2) When you are middle-aged, you want to trade experience for money.
3) When you are old, you want to trade money for time.
Ousep Marchayan retweeted
it's insanely simple
1] AI hacks the things
2] AI fries ppls brains to the pt they can't even watch Netflix
3] productivity is going to drop, not increase
4] trillions are already invested. it'd be too big to fail except
5] Trump is old, started a war.
it's starting now
Ousep Marchayan retweeted
binance hack, Nasdaq getting slaughtered. BTC barely flinched and half the alts on my list are up decently.
smells bullish to me
Ousep Marchayan retweeted
What a fucking time to be alive lads
Protect your capital, survive through all that doom and place your bets
History is happening now, itβs those moments you remember forever, do you want to remember them as a sidelined watcher or do you want to fight for your bloodline and change itβs path forever
Fuck your portfolio ATH, fuck the doubts, the time is right now forget everything else and dont step away from the screens, everyone is scared so step up fight and change your life