Sharing contrarian perspectives for retail investors | Building MacroBiscuit | Writing a book | United Kingdom
London, England
Joined March 2020
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Everyone on X is suddenly a geopolitical expert the last few days.
I’m sticking to what I know - watching for market divergences and staying disciplined through volatility.
Leave the war analysis to people who actually understand this stuff.
Iran headlines are dominating everything. I'm watching, not trading right now.
Geopolitical shocks tend to create short-term divergences between price and fundamentals. That's when opportunities appear, not in the initial panic.
Quite taken by the negative Bitcoin sentiment at the moment.
One thought - the BTC/Gold ratio is back near late-2022 lows.
Last time it hit these levels, it reversed aggressively. Does it break lower or flip again?
Watching this closely.
One of my favourite contrarian filters comes from @RealRickRule: "Look for things people hate but can't live without."
The best setups are unloved, essential, and ignored while everyone chases what's exciting.
Necessity on sale beats excitement at a premium.
Silver crashed from highs. Miners fell less.
The SILJ/Silver ratio is near historic lows.👇
If silver stabilises around $75, miners become the asymmetric play.
They absorbed the downside. They'll leverage the recovery.
This ratio won't stay depressed forever.
The hardest part of contrarian investing isn't finding what everyone hates.
It's waiting while everyone's still comfortable hating it.
Most give up before the crowd does.
Patience > timing.
I'm Ben. Built MacroBiscuit, now writing a book on contrarian investing. This account is my public workshop - to share frameworks for finding unloved opportunities, case studies from market history, and tools for retail investors. Not predictions. Process.
UK monthly GDP beat estimates coming in at +0.3% vs. last month or 1.4% for the last 12 months.
However, zooming out, remains to be seen if this is the start of an upward trend or just a blip.
#UKGDP
Seen a lot of posts today celebrating the rate cuts in the UK.
Worth remembering - rate cuts aren’t a win condition.
In most cycles, cuts come when growth is already rolling over.
They’re a response to risk - not proof of success.
BoE cuts rates to 3.75% 🔻
A narrow 5–4 vote at the MPC.
–0.25pp since last month
–1.00pp over the year
The easing cycle is well underway - but division remains.
Full historic rate chart here👇
macrobiscuit.com/series/bank…
#BoE #UKRates #UKEconomy
Just finished Broken Money by @LynAldenContact.
Brilliant read - highly recommend. It is very comprehensive (so not the quickest of reads) but does a great job breaking down the shortcomings of our current monetary system.
Well done Lyn - a triumph!
I sense it’s a good time to be in the specialist tax advice business…
#AngelaRayner
RT @EdKrassen: BREAKING: William Buffett moments ago at the 2025 Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting just came out against Trump'…
Ben | Contrarian Investing retweeted
Latest MAGA mental gymnastics is accusing Powell of making policy decisions based solely on not liking Trump
They just need a scapegoat
Fact of the matter is Fed follows the 2y, they’ve done this for decades, they did it during Trump 1.0, Biden, and they’ll do it for Trump 2.0
Junior ain’t buying a word of what the old man is saying…
#PeteHegseth
My mum always told me "good manners cost nothing"...
Turns out she was wrong.
This quoted post is unavailable.
Ben | Contrarian Investing retweeted
If the US enters a recession, long-term interest rates are likely to go down, and it would be cheaper for the US government to refinance existing government debt.
However, the chart below shows that the interest payments saved if interest rates decline by two percentage points would be more than offset by the deterioration in government finances associated with a recession.
Specifically, if interest rates decline by two percentage points, the US government would save around $500 billion in annual interest payments. But if the US enters a recession, the government will have lower tax collections and pay more in unemployment benefits, and the historical deepening of the budget deficit during recessions of around 4% of GDP would correspond to an additional $1.3 trillion erosion of US government finances measured in 2025 dollars.
The bottom line is that it is not possible to improve the budget deficit by creating a recession because during a recession government finances would deteriorate by double the amount saved in interest payments. -Apollo
