ManuelGonzalezTejera

They say any peace deal means Ukraine’s “capitulation” or handing the country over to Russia. Let’s look at the actual conditions and the fakes being spread about previously negotiated agreements. 1️⃣ Ukraine will have no army of its own — FAKE Every draft agreement stated that Ukraine would keep an army positioned along the line of contact. The only question was its size. Zelensky named an absolutely unrealistic maximalist figure of 800 thousand. Ukraine cannot sustain that number — there simply will not be the money to maintain it. The Russians reportedly agreed to around 250 thousand. The Ukrainian General Staff considered that a deal with Russia was possible and looked at up to 300 thousand as the realistic figure: professional soldiers who can actually serve and whom we will be able to maintain once the economy is restored. 2️⃣ Ukraine must renounce NATO — TRUE The Ukrainian negotiating team did accept neutrality in the sense of not joining NATO. Today this idea has almost died in Ukraine, yet the whole point of NATO was to protect people — it makes no sense for Ukrainians to keep dying for a hypothetically possible future membership. Let us also not forget that NATO partners themselves do not want Ukraine in the alliance. Neutrality is heavily underestimated. Remember that without being in NATO Ukraine already conducted joint exercises and received assistance from NATO countries. Is that so bad if it becomes the reason the war ends? 3️⃣ Putin will go further — UNKNOWN I have never spoken to Putin, and neither have the people who claim to know his intentions. No one knows whether he will attack again. That does not mean we should tell Ukrainians today that they must die now because of a hypothetical future attack. If Ukraine can maintain a diplomatic balance and rebuild its economy, there is a serious chance Putin will not start the next war — this one has already been painful enough for Russia as well. 4️⃣ Ukraine will lose its independence — FAKE If Ukraine now accepts realistic conditions for peace, it can preserve its independence and sovereignty. If we continue a war of attrition against Russia without the necessary resources and while borrowing for the entire war, the chances grow that we will turn into a vassal state and lose our independence. 5️⃣ Ukraine can continue the war for many more years — FAKE Ukraine has neither the human capital, nor the economic resources. We are completely dependent on the West for the continuation of the war. And the West has no appetite to keep paying for a war that has no visible end. The price of continuing will be extremely painful — militarily, economically, demographically and democratically. 6️⃣ A ceasefire means recognising the occupied territories as Russian — FAKE Three things must be distinguished: * a ceasefire along the actual front line; * postponing the final status of the occupied territories; * legal recognition of those territories as part of Russia. These are not the same. In the 2022 negotiations the questions of Crimea and Donbas remained unresolved. The Ukrainian proposal envisaged separate talks on Crimea; the status of the occupied Donbas territories was also not finally settled. Fighting can therefore be stopped without a legal renunciation of the territories. At the same time it must be said honestly: a ceasefire does not guarantee their return in the future. 7️⃣ Any peace agreement will be beneficial only to Russia — FAKE Russia may keep control over the territories it occupies, at least temporarily. That is a serious concession and it should not be hidden. Ukraine, however, can also gain concrete results: an end to the killings, preservation of the population, recovery of the economy and democracy, the return of soldiers to civilian life, the possibility of holding elections once security obstacles are removed, and the prospect of reconstruction. The question is not whether the agreement will be perfect. The question is whether it will be better for Ukraine than the alternatives that are actually available. At the same time we should remember: the agreement itself does not guarantee that the promises will be fulfilled. Its value will depend on control mechanisms, security guarantees and Ukraine’s ability to maintain successful postwar state management.