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Replying to @FundaAI
@FundaAI is closing in on @citrini on the MarketStack Index after James Bulltard pulled ahead of them earlier this week.
At this rate, the top 3 MarketStack Index authors, all with 17k subscribers each, will have a combined distribution 19x smaller than the top 3 Bestsellers (Citrini/Burry/Doomberg) who together have almost 1 million subscribers.
Meet @YuDing32583, our co-founder and cybersecurity analyst. He offers a response to the @AnthropicAI warning about the coming surge in security work and explains who stands to win.
MarketStack retweeted
VulnZero (Zero Vulnerabilities) is the idea that AI scaling laws will eventually bring Mythos-class vulnerability detection and remediation to small, inexpensive models, making automated security checks a standard part of software development.
Replying to @RothRottweiler
vulnzero. the scaling laws will have driven cyber mythos-class capabilities into small, cheap models and all software dev everywhere will be using models for fractions of pennies on the dollar to stop shipping security bugs permanently.
I contend that there was initially an overreaction to the @citrini “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” article, mostly to the headline claims and often by people that didn’t even carefully read the article. It was followed by an under-reaction as most dismissed it as a sci-fi story not to be taken seriously and quickly moved on.
Nearly 8 months later, with the benefit of some hindsight and out-of-sample evidence, I recommend everyone to re-read the article (kudos to @citricap and @alapshah1 for making it free). I think this will turn out to be one of the most prescient pieces of economic writing in the post-COVID era.
MarketStack retweeted
The greatest danger in a world changing this fast is not taking risk****
The entirety of the modern world has created an environment where people feel safe, comfortable, and complacent
Government benefits have incentivized people to stop taking risks and support socialism
Now AI has come on stage and punishes everyone who doesn't take risks. AI is going to ensure that the distribution of profits goes to risk takers, and everyone who actively decides to be passive will be devalued in real terms.
MarketStack retweeted
Thursday's 10-year Treasury yield decline of 0.193 percentage point (to 4.952%) is the largest single day yield decline since March 10, 2023, which is the day Silicon Valley Bank failed.
MarketStack retweeted
Replying to @conksresearch
“Here it is the France’s CDS so you can realize how bad it is”
MarketStack retweeted
Europe has actively decided to back itself into a corner in trade
Migration is amplifying social volatility and cultural unrest
Debt service costs are skyrocketing as rates rise
This global forces will become more apparent in the US as we progress through midterms and the next presidential election
The entire world is operating off interest rates risk and cross-border flow risk from currencies. Most people dont even have a clue what these factors are because theyre so focused on the next data print or earnings release.
MarketStack retweeted
I’ve seen this quite a bit as well. One of the easiest ways to identify someone who lacks real market experience is to listen to the narratives they construct around the market-making community.
It’s a huge red flag whenever someone speaks about market makers as though they’re some divine hand from the sky that sees all, knows all, and controls every movement in the market.
More often than not, these narratives serve as convenient scapegoats for price action that someone doesn’t fully understand. And when you actually tap the Street, examine positioning, or dig into the underlying data to validate those claims, they frequently fall apart.
The irony is that market makers are often just as constrained by inventory, risk limits, adverse selection, and imperfect information as everyone else. They are not omniscient, nor are they some coordinated entity operating with a singular objective.
Ultimately the “market makers are pinning the gamma bro” type of arguments are similar to the statements you hear from a fish blaming the dealer at the casino for “bad luck” on a few hands.
ken griffin, founder of the $77 bn hedge fund firm citadel, has little patience for blaming every losing trade on hedge fund deleveraging.
he says people love that explanation because it removes their own accountability.
his first questions are about the prices changing, the information his team lacks, and what other investors may have worked out.
only after exhausting those paths does he want to discuss who might be forced to sell.
his concern with reaching for that explanation too quickly:
“I actually stop learning.”
MarketStack retweeted
New Interest Rate Regime Model - Volatility is building
capitalflowsresearch.com/p/n…
MarketStack retweeted
These headlines are only going to continue in France
They will materialize in a different wrapper in the rest of the Eurozone and eventually the United States
This is the macro endgame everyone misunderstands, where fiscal deficits and "money printing" are actually negative for stocks and bonds
🇫🇷 FRANCE'S BORROWING COSTS HIT 24-YEAR HIGH AS DEBT FEARS MOUNT
France's 10-year government bond yield briefly topped 5% for the first time since 2002.
Violent protests, widening fiscal concerns and political gridlock are fueling a selloff in French debt.
PGIM warns of a “perfect storm” as investors question France's ability to rein in deficits.
The key risk: Rising borrowing costs could deepen France's fiscal crisis and revive eurozone debt concerns.
MarketStack retweeted
New lows in OATs
France is going to continue to collapse until a bailout occurs. After this happens, the Euro is going to start getting cooked even more, and it will start amplifying the risks in the entire Eurozone. There is no printing your way out of this
None of this ends well for Europe
Your AI is blind xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1YGNrbMDB…
MarketStack retweeted
Ed Zitron, a newsletter guy who's been calling the AI top for years, just had an absolute crash out 😂
"Jensen Huang is a piece of shit. Every hyperscaler CEO is too."
He even apologized to his readers for having been too polite before.
This is what being wrong on AI that long does to a man.
What's next, Ed? Jensen did 9/11? 🤣
MarketStack retweeted
I continue to bid ES on pull backs
intraday we are seeing selling pressure get bought aggressively through the Globex session and interest rate risk is decreasing
As we look at the market right now, there is a significant degree of positioning that is paying too much of a premium to hedge their downside risk.
When we move through event catalysts or macro risk increases, traders put on short term hedges and push premiums to an extreme. When risks don't materialize, these hedges need to be unwound which results in moving the price in the opposite direction traders are hedging.
Short vol traders already doubled down on their exposure last week on the VIX spike and index hedges are showing less and less help in managing these underlying rotations and dispersions in equity markets.
See the note here on this: open.substack.com/chat/posts…
Recent report explaining the macro risks here: capitalflowsresearch.com/p/g…
MarketStack retweeted
First time ever Elon has ever replied to me. Peace in our time. 😂
Replying to @firstadopter
Only if they can get their compute online and reliable, which is extremely difficult to do at scale


























