Navigating the crypto idea maze, investing / Previously @Coinbase @cbventures Opinions are my own
Joined May 2016
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Every cycle we course correct for the ills of the previous one.
Last cycle, memecoins were pitched as the antidote to low float VC shenanigans. The dilution brought about by memecoins instituted a now near universal PvP mindset where holding a coin meant you were always looking over your shoulder. "Extraction" was the norm.
This cycle, we course correct the PvP mindset. Holding and believing in coins that can't be infinitely diluted will win.
Think market has rewarded “consensus” bets for the better part of the last 2 years, but from here, it’s going to pay to think outside of the box
Can never forget how quickly hope can come rushing back to crypto. While the bear market is nearly at the finish line, the path from here will be less smooth than most expect.
Believe Q4 will offer big opportunities.
Excited to back @bookwithmiso on their quest to build the best AI-native travel agent.
Have been using them for the last year and could not recommend more.
18 months ago we set out to build an AI-native travel agent in iMessage.
We booked the first trips ourselves and learned one thing fast: travel is fucking complicated. Points. Delays. 2am support. Business Lie-Flat vs Suite. A thousand edge cases.
But complicated isn't the hard part. Specific is.
Nobody wants "a flight to Tokyo." They want the 11pm nonstop, the aisle in front of the wing, the points they forgot they had, and the hotel they liked last time, without explaining any of it again.
So that's what we built.
One thread that already knows.
Some of our users have texted their way to $100K+ in bookings. Some just want out of 45C, away from the screaming kid.
We book both. The pretzels are free either way.
Live today at try.miso.com
“All the smart OGs left”
“AI is far more interesting”
“Smart contracts are unusable”
All variations of why this time is different, and it’s best to remember that it’s never different this time.
High confidence we’ve started the bottoming process, green shoots are already emerging.
There’s a reason Strategy will do everything it can to keep mNAV above 1
One integrated view of Strategy’s Bitcoin balance sheet and capital structure. The MSTR-BTC dashboard brings gross and net reserves, per-share economics, valuation, duration, floor, breakeven, hurdle, yield, and gain into a single framework. Live at Strategy.com.
Echoes of summer 2022
Bit of a goldilocks for small caps/beta as the market gets confidence BTC isn't going to break down just yet and a lot of participants feel the itch to front run Q4 demand.
Good to remember alts other than SOL and AVAX (outsized Alameda exposure) didn't make new lows relative to BTC at the bottom.
There are two distinct chapters in this Bitcoin bear market:
1. MSTR > 1 mNAV
2. MSTR <1 mNAV
We're now entering the final, second half of this bear market. The fear and/or reality of Saylor selling a much more considerable amount of BTC should lead to a much more durable bottom in Q4.
Biggest sea change in crypto markets this year is the emergence of protocols that can generate meaningful revenue that’s uncorrelated to crypto’s cycles
Max Bronstein retweeted
fun to note that new Fed Chairs are faced with a crisis within the first months of being sworn in
Miller - Dollar Collapse - 0 mo
Volcker - 20% rates - 2 mo
Greenspan - Black Monday - 2 mo
Bernanke - GFC - 18mo
Yellen - Taper Tantrum - 2 mo
Powell - Volmageddon - day 1 (lol)
The four-year cycle is dead, long live the four-year cycle
Bitcoin has won. Global consensus is that $BTC is digital capital. The four-year cycle is dead. Price is now driven by capital flows. Bank and digital credit will determine Bitcoin’s growth trajectory. The biggest risk is bad ideas driving iatrogenic protocol changes.
Max Bronstein retweeted
Great podcast from @max_bronstein -- one of the sharpest guys in crypto and has seen it all from the early days.
Tune in below.
🎙️NEW POD OUT NOW! @max_bronstein @jvb_xyz
We Cover:
➤ Massive Crypto Selloff
➤ Our Market Concerns
➤ Long-Term Value in Crypto
➤ Mamdani’s Mayoral Win
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
02:34 Crypto Meltdown
04:48 Plasma Long?
07:26 Bull Trend Still Intact?
16:01 Ads (Kraken OTC, Peaq)
17:25 Bitcoin vs Alts
21:30 DAT Concerns
26:04 Trading Charts
29:03 Crypto Big Picture
35:31 Ads (Kraken, Peaq, Katana)
37:33 Creating Internet Capital Markets
39:46 Jeeting Out of CryptoPunks
43:23 Hyperliquid Debate
46:17 Long-Term Theses in Crypto
49:56 Clippers Game
51:15 Mamdani Mayoral Win
58:59 Where Does This All Go?
01:02:05 Final Thoughts
Links below ↓