AI, Big Data and Elections @fladatacom, @freshtakefla and https://xitter.cf/t.co/MIeRWCqev6. Dev and Adjunct @UF. Hiker of Long Trails. Past @TB_Times, @datapath, @USMC
St Petersburg, FL
Joined June 2019
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Brandon Meyer retweeted
Republicans have yet to make meaningful progress reversing early Democratic advantages in South Florida and the I-4 corridor relying mainly on Southwest Florida to offset losses elsewhere in the state. Ex: The GOP currently holds a 33-ballot lead in a reliably red Polk County.
Democrats, through strong evening and morning turnout, have managed to claw back a substantial portion of yesterday’s losses reducing what was a 19,000-ballot GOP lead to just over 10,000.
Dashboard: freshtake.vote/2026G
Republicans have yet to make meaningful progress reversing early Democratic advantages in South Florida and the I-4 corridor relying mainly on Southwest Florida to offset losses elsewhere in the state. Ex: The GOP currently holds a 33-ballot lead in a reliably red Polk County.
I would love to implement these features, but voter-level VBM return data is restricted to candidates, parties and committees. Early turnout data is unrestricted, however, without VBM data, it would provide an incomplete picture. If you follow me, you should read this article.
My take, in a letter to @ASDem, on how I am thinking about Florida with one week to go.
On my substack: open.substack.com/pub/manoff…
It was a good day for Florida Republicans. The GOP moved ahead for the first time at 11:25 turning a 9,000-ballot deficit into a 14,000-ballot lead. Overall turnout is R+0.5. Dem turnout is 30% vs Reps' 22%. The red ramp appears to have begun.
Dashboard: freshtake.vote/2026G
On the eve of the start of in-person early voting, Democrats led Republicans by 51,000 ballots. Despite a 1.5 million voter advantage, it took Republicans eight days to even the playing field. When people ask me how the GOP is performing, that’s my answer.
Nice catch by @leonardkl in this morning’s Florida Playbook. politico.com/newsletters/flo…
Polls are open. If you would like to track daily statewide counts in real time, we have a page for that. freshtake.vote/2026G/dailyre…
Even without mail ballots being delivered by the postal service, Democrats today managed to increase their margin over Republicans to 8,000 ballots. Both parties now exceed 1.1 million in turnout. 1 in 5 eligible voters have now cast a ballot.
Dashboard: freshtake.vote/2026G
I think this is a better way to visualize ballots cast at a county level. I'm open to suggestions. freshtake.vote/2026G/who.php
We're off to a slow start today. Republicans yesterday came within 630 votes of taking the turnout lead for the first time this election. Increased turnout late last night and early this morning have given Democrats a renewed buffer of about 3,600 ballots. freshtake.vote/2026G
Good and fair analysis of the current state of the Florida election. tampabay.com/news/florida-po…
With polling sites closing up for the day (times vary) it looks like Florida Republicans will need another day or two to take the turnout lead. It’s razor thin. Visit our live tracker here for the latest data: freshtake.vote/2026G/index.p…
