@MicrosoftAI Futures Lead | THE COMING WAVE, HUMAN FRONTIERS, CURATION, THE CONTENT MACHINE | ex @canelo_co @DeepMind | Ideas, books, technology

Oxfordshire
Joined February 2008
Michael Bhaskar retweeted
How is this a real article in a serious newspaper?
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Michael Bhaskar retweeted
Many of you don't understand how serious this is, so let me break it down. In computer science there is a famous kind of puzzle called 3-SAT. You are given a long list of yes-or-no switches and a set of rules about how they must be arranged, and you have to find a combination that satisfies every rule. The obvious way to solve it is to try every combination, but each new switch doubles the number of possibilities, so a puzzle with a few hundred switches would take longer than the age of the universe to brute force. For decades, the smartest people in the field found clever tricks that made this a little faster, but every trick still hit the same wall: the time required kept exploding as the puzzle grew. About 25 years ago, two computer scientists, Russell Impagliazzo and Ramamohan Paturi, working with Francis Zane, turned that wall into a formal idea. They proposed the Exponential Time Hypothesis, which says this explosion is not a failure of human cleverness but a law of nature. No algorithm, however brilliant, will ever solve 3-SAT without the time blowing up exponentially. Nobody could prove it, but almost everyone believed it, and it became one of the foundations of modern computer science. Researchers used it as a measuring stick. If you could show that solving some other problem quickly would also crack 3-SAT quickly, you had shown that problem was hopelessly hard too. Hundreds of papers, across scheduling, graphs, logic and much more, rest on this one assumption. Now an internal AI model at OpenAI claims to have broken it. It says it found an algorithm that solves these puzzles meaningfully faster than the hypothesis allows, and it has checked the proof in a computer verification system called Lean. And here is the remarkable part: the very people who proposed the hypothesis, Impagliazzo and Paturi, along with MIT's Ryan Williams, are now leading the public review of whether a machine has disproved their own idea. So what happens next? If the disproof holds, a large part of theoretical computer science has to be revisited. Every result that said "this problem cannot be solved faster, assuming ETH" loses its foundation, and researchers will have to work out which of those walls were real and which were simply where we stopped looking. It does not mean everything becomes easy. The new algorithm is still slow in absolute terms and this is not the famous P versus NP problem being solved. But it means our map of what is possible was wrong in a place we were very confident about, and it was an AI that redrew it. If the disproof fails, the hypothesis survives and the field breathes out, but we will still have watched an AI produce serious, checkable work on one of the deepest questions in the discipline, closely enough that the founders of the idea had to take it seriously. Either way, something has shifted.
An internal model at OpenAI has produced a claimed refutation of ETH! Russell Impagliazzo, Mohan Paturi, and I have been asked to help organize an open and independent examination of this claim. 1/4
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A nightmare for anyone who cares about books and writing. And also... Books still not the way to get rich alas.
Things people think will make them rich: • Buying stocks. • Getting a high-paying job. • Saving 20% of their salary. Things that actually make you rich:
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Not good enough.
Replying to @hinapansari
yes. it was always going to be this way. we tried to warn the world.
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Michael Bhaskar retweeted
As I said before, not using AI in medicine is clear malpractice now. About 800,000 Americans die or become permanently disabled from misdiagnoses each year. AI four times better would already save hundreds of thousands of lives now, eventually all. Then, multiply this worldwide!
Microsoft says its AI tool is better than doctors at diagnosing conditions. The company claims to have developed an AI-powered tool it says can diagnose conditions up to four times more accurately than human doctors theverge.com/ai-artificial-i…
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This is incredible work from the team. A hint of what humanist superintelligence means in practice...
Our MAI Diagnostic system is now 1.7x more accurate than physicians in the ED, even when they have access to the web to look things up. It's also lower cost & does fewer medical tests to get to its diagnosis. Published in the journal Science today...
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It's a genuinely phenomenal and prescient piece of work. Remember him giving a presentation of early versions of the ideas at DeepMind in 2018 and even then it was different and felt true.
Too few people have really engaged with this masterpiece. Drexler was too early! owainevans.github.io/pdfs/Re…
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Spot on. Calling AI a "normal technology" is fundamentally wrong but the impulse behind it - that AI is still subject to some dynamics of previous waves of technology - was not.
🌶️ take: We don’t need to come up with very bad metaphors to counter a very underspecified metaphor. I really dislike the metaphor of AI as “normal” technology. And I tell my students how this metaphor came about and what rhetorical function it serves. But AI is not normal technology.
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Michael Bhaskar retweeted
Appalled to realise that Iain Banks used an LLM to write The Player of Games
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The consciousness discussion around AI has absolutely exploded. It’s a huge, difficult, uncertain, with pitfalls on all sides. Colleagues Philipp Schoenegger, Ben Bariach, @mustafasuleyman and I looked at some of the risks of what we call seemingly conscious AI. Full (1/9)
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outputs during preference training. - People may tolerate unsafe behaviors like resisting shutdown or monitoring because they feel the system deserves moral consideration. Purely technical fixes probably won’t be enough. This is a gut level reaction. Read the full paper (8/9)
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Michael Bhaskar retweeted
1/ We discovered something totally unexpected about the neural structure of consciousness that overturns decades of thinking on its biological basis and brings us significantly closer to the recipe for generating conscious awareness. New preprint: biorxiv.org/content/10.64898… (led by @HesseJanis, with @FrankLanfranchi, @_conor_mcgrory, @Yuelin_Shi, and @EngelTatiana)
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Agree
AI ppl loooove to pretend they hold tons secret knowledge. Everyone has Seen Things, and have been trusted with the Esoteric Knowledge. It's also cringe if you don't partake because it implies you're not in the Inner Circle. In reality most people are kinda confused, working it all out ad hoc, relying on the same rumours, and so on - but the status games are hard to resist!
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