Michael Muller

Looking at the net partisan margin shift of votes cast so far to the same point in 2024 in party registration states, Dems are outpacing '24 in every single state. And Kansas looks... very good (yes, that reads +33.8 Dem).

I've been harping on the need for Dems to invest in partisan voter reg for a while. Here's an example of why I think it's important, looking at the early vote in ME. Looking at turnout as a % of registration, Dems are outperforming GOPs by a lot, as well as their '22 benchmark.

Comparing turnout as a percent of registration by party '26 to '22 at the same point (21 days out) in the 12 states with party registration and a critical mass of votes cast, Dems are outperforming GOPs in 10 of 12.

23 days out from election day, the most notable trend emerging from the early vote is large turnout increases among voters of color relative to the same point in time in both 2022 and 2024. In fact, in every state reporting thus far the white vote share is lower than '22/'24.

I wrote up our findings on the astounding early turnout among Hispanic voters here - tombonier.substack.com/p/ear…

Our team @TargetSmart made a huge announcement today, as they released a new national voter file with double digit increases in data coverage for Black, Latino, and young voters. These hard to reach voters were decisive in 2024, and now more of them are reachable than ever.