MichaelRapaport

For those waking up: Both Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot declared victory last night. But with more than 76% of ballots counted, neither has a clear path to becoming prime minister. Here’s where things stand: ➡️ Netanyahu’s bloc: 54 seats. His Likud party is the largest in the Knesset, and his political allies are now just seven seats short of the 61 needed for a majority. ➡️ Eisenkot’s bloc: 47 seats. The parties seeking to replace Netanyahu have fewer seats collectively, making their path to forming a government more complicated. ➡️ Arab-led parties: 19 seats. Their strong showing could make them pivotal to the outcome. Several leaders in the anti-Netanyahu camp vowed during the campaign that they would not form a government with Arab-led parties. But that was then and I’ve been told politicians sometimes break promises. There is another possibility: a minority government that takes office with the support of some parties and the abstention of others. That would also require difficult political compromises. Netanyahu has his own challenge. Even with the largest party and the larger established bloc, he still needs additional support to form a government.

Israel's first exit polls are in. According to News 12: ➡️ Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu: 24 seats ➡️ Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot: 22 seats ➡️ Beyachad, led by Naftali Bennett: 12 seats ➡️ Joint List, an alliance of Arab-led parties: 11 seats ➡️ The Democrats, led by Yair Golan: 9 seats ➡️ Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman: 9 seats Israeli Government Formation 101: Class is now in session. Israel's parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats. To form a government, a party leader needs to assemble a coalition with the support of at least 61 members. Take note (it's on the exam): the leader of the party that wins the most seats doesn't automatically become prime minister. What matters is who can persuade enough other parties to join them and build a governing majority to get to 61 seats. The political bargaining begins now. Party leaders will negotiate alliances, policy priorities, and cabinet positions to determine who can form the next government.

Israel Election Explainer: Winning the most seats doesn't mean winning the election. And tonight's exit polls show us exactly why. Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud is projected to be the largest party in the Knesset. But when you add up the seats won by parties that are willing to govern together, the picture gets much more complicated. Here's the breakdown (61 seats is the magic number to form a government): ➡️ Netanyahu's bloc: ~50 seats. These are parties generally aligned with Netanyahu and considered potential partners in his government. ➡️ The anti-Netanyahu bloc: ~53 seats. These are parties opposed to another Netanyahu government, although they don't necessarily agree on who should lead the country or what policies to pursue. ➡️ Arab-led parties (take that "apartheid"): 17 seats. These parties also oppose Netanyahu but are counted separately because they are not part of the main Zionist opposition bloc. Remember, 61 seats are needed to command a majority in Israel's 120-seat parliament. Neither of the two main blocs has enough seats to govern on its own. So what happens next? Once the official results are in, Israel's president consults with the elected parties and decides which member of parliament has the best chance of forming a government. That person gets the first opportunity to assemble a coalition. Netanyahu may get the first chance because Likud is projected to be the largest party, but that is not automatic. The president must consider who can actually assemble a majority. Then come the negotiations. Party leaders will bargain over who joins the government, what policies it pursues, and who gets which cabinet positions. And here's the twist: it's entirely possible that neither side will succeed and Israelis will hold another election.