In it for the tech. privacy is normal. NFA! DYOR! trading @ https://xitter.cf/t.co/xYluuUzlJ5 https://xitter.cf/t.co/1cvYh66Qct (10% cashback)
Joined June 2013
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Trading bots are a topic full of misunderstandings and misconceptions. And the ones who really know about it usually do not talk about it. When I started my journey in this field 20 years ago, information was even harder to come by. So I decided to change that once I gathered enough experience myself. I already wrote about my journey into "normal" trading bots (kuegi.medium.com/) and open-sourced the bot I wrote and used for years (github.com/kuegi/kuegiBot).
Over the past few years, I moved from those bots (which try to catch market moves) to an even more obscure and rarely talked about topic: arbitrage. And again, not many talk about it, so let's change that.
One big disclaimer: I am not one of the big players. The really big ones invest significant resources into their infra to be first. Because speed is the most important currency in arbitrage trading. It strongly depends on the field, but in most areas, it will be really hard (aka nearly impossible) for a single "hobby" trader to beat them. So I focus my bots on the areas that they do not compete in. I never worked in any of those companies, but I believe I have a firm understanding of how it works. I had such bots running in niche areas where they have been highly profitable, so I know a thing or two.
Either way, my plan is to share what I know and take you along on the journey going forward. So if you are interested in this: follow along.
One more thing: I do not shill trading ideas or exchanges. There are exchanges that I use and like, and for some of them, I have partner links. I greatly appreciate it if you use them, but DYOR and take responsibility yourself. None of this is financial advice.
Kügi retweeted
We are announcing three new discoveries in mathematics, computer science, and physics about harmonic analysis, complexity theory, and quantum field theory.
openai.com/index/building-sc…
Kügi retweeted
on the NSM as-is, it begins re-distribution far too soon.
Its programmed to begin in February 2031, in Zcash's third halvening.
Bitcoin is currently in the 4th halving, and has not faced miner incentive issues with regular Proof of Work.
This leads to me to believe the soonest the NSM should kick-in is the 5th halvening, which is 2036.
Kügi retweeted
We understand your concerns about the potential risks this incident poses to our customers, and we take them seriously.
The leaked key could potentially allow an attacker to create counterfeit devices that pass our device verification process. To address this risk, we’ve taken the following measures:
Devices delivered before October 20, 2026: According to our investigation, these devices were delivered before the incident, and their authenticity can still be verified through our device verification process.
Devices received after October 20, 2026: We cannot completely rule out the possibility that devices using the old authentication key could be counterfeit, even if they pass verification. We urge customers who received devices after this date to contact us at [email protected] for assistance in verifying their device’s authenticity before using it.
Existing inventory: We’ve suspended shipments because our current inventory contains devices provisioned with the old authentication key. All 18,835 affected devices will be destroyed and will not be sold or shipped.
New orders: Preorders are now available, and devices provisioned with the new authentication key are expected to ship within 4–6 weeks.
We recognize the responsibility we have to protect our customers and the wider community. We’re taking these steps to address the risks associated with this incident and strengthen our device authentication process. We sincerely apologize for the concern this has caused.
Kügi retweeted
Shielded ZEC in the hands of billions.
That's our mission, and that's what ZODL Summit is all about.
January 19–21. Punta Cana. Apply below ↓
Kügi retweeted
OK SO I LEARNED WHAT THIS MEANS
> imagine you’re planning a dinner with 30 friends.
> One friend refuses to come if their ex is there.
> Two friends say they will only come if their crushes are also invited.
> Someone else wants to bring their dog sitter and clavicular
> everyone has some stupid condition.
> as the organizer, your job is now to find a guest list that makes everyone happy.
Sounds simple enough right?
…
No.
> There are over A BILLION possible guest lists, and every extra person DOUBLES the possibilities.
> For 25 years, scientists basically believed that certain problems like this had no real shortcut.
> As these problems get bigger, they become INSANELY harder to solve.
They called this the Exponential Time Hypothesis, or ETH.
Anyways:
> OpenAI is now claiming that it’s AI found a mathematical shortcut that proves this belief is WRONG.
“Alright Binji, but why should I care?”
Because If we discover better shortcuts, we could eventually solve problems that were previously too expensive or difficult to tackle.
But while we wait for it to be proven fully, this affects us in another major way:
AI may just have figured out something that the smartest humans in this field couldn’t solve for over 25 years. And, to put icing on the mathematical cake: two of the guys who originally came up with the theory are now helping review the Ai’s work.
Anyway, I studied econ and cog sci so don’t quote me on this, just thought I’d try to explain it since it’s making the rounds.
Kügi retweeted
An internal model at OpenAI has produced a claimed refutation of ETH! Russell Impagliazzo, Mohan Paturi, and I have been asked to help organize an open and independent examination of this claim. 1/4
I am not fully trusting this until we break the channel to the upside, but this fractal really seems to have passed.
Kügi retweeted
Lonely and Right
Keynes said picking stocks is like a newspaper beauty contest: you don't win by picking the prettiest face, you win by picking the face everyone else picks.
Ninety years on, that's still the most honest description of my job which is sad because I think I know beauty.
Now the tortoise and the hare. Everyone tells it as "slow and steady wins." That's not the story. The story is that for 90% of the race the tortoise is losing. Badly. In public. The hare is at the cocktail party. The hare's LPs are thrilled. The hare is on the list. Then the tortoise wins at the end, and we tell it to children, and we leave out that the tortoise spent the whole race feeling like a fool.
So be honest. Would you rather win 90% of the race and lose at the end, or lose 90% of the race and win? Counted in years of your one life, the hare has the better deal. That is venture capital right now. The young partner in a venture firm would rather be the hare and jump to the next firm than be lonely as the tortoise.
The consensus deal is the hare. Expensive, crowded, fun. Everyone at dinner knows the company. The marks go up, the capital piles in, and for years you feel like you're winning, right up to the moment the music stops, which is the only moment that counts. The contrarian deal is the tortoise. It pays only if you're contrarian and right, and you find out which at the end. Until then you're on no list, nobody at dinner has heard of your company, and you look slow. Early and wrong feel identical from the inside. That's the whole difficulty.
So the real trade was never consensus versus contrarian. It's finding the thing that's contrarian today and consensus in eighteen months.
Buy the tortoise, then watch it grow legs. Cheap entry, then the multiple expands when the crowd arrives, and then you're back at the cocktail party being congratulated on your foresight by the same people who thought you were lonely.
Lonely and right, then crowded and rich.
That's the business. Finding the ugly duckling that's going to become a swan - that's where the alpha is.
What's contrarian now that I think flips? Held loosely:
1. Outcomes, not tokens. Everyone is selling the enterprise intelligence by the pound. The enterprise doesn't want intelligence. It wants the claim processed, the invoice reconciled, the ticket closed. One in five companies has AI in production; one in fourteen has rebuilt the factory. Whoever sells the other thirteen a finished outcome, priced like a result and not like a utility bill, wins the decade. It looks like a services business on the way in. So did Amazon.
2. Security that gets paid for the breach that didn't happen. The attackers have agents now, so every company on earth is about to be robbed at machine speed, and the defender's product is still a dashboard. The bet is the company that stops selling the dashboard and starts selling the result: we handle it, we're on the hook. Security and insurance were always the same business. Someone is about to notice.
3. The specialist labs. Not the frontier, which is consensus at a trillion, but the labs that do one thing for one industry at a hundredth the price.
4. The boring half of the physical world. Robotics is loud. Inspection, maintenance and warehouses are quiet, and the revenue lives in the quiet part.
I may be wrong about all four. That's rather the point. If I were sure, so would everyone, and then it wouldn't be a trade. It'd be a cocktail party.
Kügi retweeted
It's really strange that so many people are trying to shout this down immediately.
It's an open system, guys. Different upgrades are proposed and talked about publicly. There's nothing wrong with talking about it.
Do better.
Kügi retweeted
Zcash's Blossom upgrade (2019) halved block time from 150 to 75 seconds ⏱️
This reduced the 500-block Sprout to Sapling pool migration interval from 20.8 to 10.4 hours.
Network Upgrade 7 (November 5th) reduces block time again from 75 to 25 seconds & disables Sprout transactions.
Sprout ZEC should migrate to Sapling before activation.
Kügi retweeted
i'm not reposting this because i want to share my opinion of whether crosslink is a good or bad idea.
i'm reposting this because i can repost it without expressing an opinion, just how the @Zcash account has done.
why is everybody acting so fragile about a proposal discussion?
Kügi retweeted
I am 100% confident that the post from the Zcash handle was innocent, framing Crosslink progress, and continued testing like many Zcash initiatives, even my own projects that account did RTs. The personal attacks seem misplaced, echoing political splits between red and blue. You are better than that.
Kügi retweeted
this post here is causing unnecessary drama
people are somewhat mad because the @Zcash account is educating the community on ongoing R&D by @ShieldedLabs (an independent zcash contributor) -- in a harmless post that clearly categorizes it as "proposed"
some more context ⬇️
crosslink is a proposed hybrid pow/pos upgrade for zcash. nothing is decided. both research, development and community discussions are still ongoing.
it keeps mining for block production and adds a parallel finality gadget so confirmed blocks become irreversible in practice.
shielded labs is the independent swiss organization building it. founded in late 2022 by @aquietinvestor as a donation-funded group outside the development fund and block rewards. @zooko is CPO there. the team has former ECC and equilibrium people plus other protocol engineers. their whole point is to add independent capacity so Zcash is less dependent on any single US-based entity.
that's great for decentralization!
they published the crosslink roadmap in march 2025 and have been shipping prototype milestones since then (placeholders, disconnected BFT, PoW respecting finality, staking semantics). by early 2026 the prototype phase was done and they moved into incentivized feature nets and productionization. so roughly a year and a half of public implementation work on top of earlier design discussion.
it matters because pure pow tends to centralize over time. bitcoin started with many miners of similar size and now two mining pools produce more than half the blocks. that's an inevitable outcome for the game theories behind BTC pow. i've written extensively about that (and others have too).
larger operators get more rewards, buy more specialized hardware, and smaller ones get priced out by difficulty and energy costs. capital is tied to equipment that can be pointed at other chains or sold, so the network stake is weak.
in a hybrid setup the pos side puts value at stake that is cumulative and locked to the network itself. an attacker has to compromise both layers. staking stays inside the shielded pool with batching and other privacy measures so individual positions are harder to fingerprint.
finality also makes deposits, bridges, and everyday payments more predictable without waiting on probabilistic confirmations. transactions become faster and more aligned to real-world payment expectations.
it does not replace PoW. it adds a complementary security model and better long-term sustainability as issuance declines, while expanding who can participate beyond a few large miners. that addresses the empirical centralization path pure proof-of-work has shown, without throwing away the base layer $ZEC already has.
i support the direction. independent teams building in public and having their year-and-a-half work being recognized by a simple and harmless post that is now being weaponized by governance adversaries.
Kügi retweeted
Proud to work at Shielded Labs. We never stop defending Zcash’s security.
I’m confused by the outrage from certain people around Crosslink. At this point, it’s an R&D effort. There’s no activation proposal or ZIPs, and it isn’t on the mainnet roadmap. It’s a prototype design that we’re testing and iterating on.
Research and experimentation are good for Zcash. Permissionless innovation means people can explore ideas without first securing everyone’s agreement, and the Zcash community should encourage that. Good-faith debate is how Zcash improves, and we welcome scrutiny of Crosslink’s design, assumptions, and tradeoffs.
We’re working on Crosslink because we think stronger protection against reorg and rollback attacks may be a necessary security upgrade for Zcash at some point. AI or other forces could eventually challenge the security assumptions behind PoW, and our thesis is that a hybrid model may offer stronger security than either pure PoW or pure PoS.
Shielded Labs’ mission is to protect the long-term security of Zcash. It’s a common theme across all our projects, including Crosslink, the Network Sustainability Mechanism (NSM), and Epoch. We also demonstrated that commitment by bringing on Taylor Hornby as a security researcher to use AI tools to identify potential vulnerabilities, which uncovered the Orchard counterfeiting bug. We want to address potential risks before they become urgent, and recent events have shown the value of being forward-looking.
The burden of proof is on us. If we want Crosslink included in a future network upgrade, it’s our responsibility to demonstrate consensus. But that’s still a long way off. For now, we’re focused on improving the design, incorporating user feedback, and working toward a production-ready implementation for the community and coinholders to evaluate.
There’s still a lot of work to do before we’d propose Crosslink for mainnet, and we plan to run it on testnet for an extended period of time. If you disagree with Crosslink, challenge the design and help us understand what we’re missing. We all want Zcash to succeed. Let’s focus on strengthening and protecting Zcash as a whole by giving research and experimentation room to happen.
If you're interested in learning more about Crosslink or participating in the incentivized testnet, feel free to DM me.
