Monarch

ANOTHA ONE ON THE ALL-TIME LEADERBOARD 3rd Place ✅ 2nd Place @monarch_fast

Graph below is taker volume (NOT notional volume) for recent midweek NFL games at Kalshi/Poly (US + defi). Not a huge gap! A lot of the gap we are seeing between Kalshi and Poly/the field at the top line for sports is increasingly from combos.

BREAKING: OUTCOME'S FIRST SPORTS MARKET IS LIVE ON HYPERLIQUID. WHO WILL WIN THE ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE?

The World Cup is giving us a rare experiment in prediction markets. For a few weeks, every major venue is offering essentially the same product: who will win the World Cup. Same event, same audience, same timeline. The only real difference is where people choose to trade. So far, about $4.2 billion has traded on @Polymarket's World Cup winner market, just over $1.1 billion on @Kalshi, and roughly $329 million on @HyperliquidX's two month old HIP-4. Those numbers highlight something that is easy to overlook: launching a prediction market is becoming easier, but building liquidity is still hard. Liquidity shapes the entire trading experience. England's knockout match against Mexico generated roughly $400 million in volume on Kalshi alone. With that much participation, prices adjusted smoothly as goals, penalties, and the red card changed the outlook. The World Cup winner market tells a different story. The lack of liquidity resulted in sharp price bursts early on, very different from today as more participants entered the market. The contract stayed the same. The liquidity didn't. @Outcomexyz, one of the builders on Hyperliquid's HIP-4, says its World Cup match markets have traded with spreads as tight as 0.2¢, versus around 1¢ on other prediction market venues. Marketing, distribution, and liquidity incentives are becoming the name of the game. On Hyperliquid, @monarch_fast and @Outcomexyz launched a campaign paying traders up to $3,000 per day to keep World Cup markets active. Polymarket is offering liquidity rewards of up to $75,000 per match. @RobinhoodCrypto's new joint venture exchange traded 500 million contracts in June, while Robinhood chain is opening another distribution channel through @meridiandotxyz (formerly Ethereal), which is building on-chain prediction markets with combo bets. Different approaches, but all solving the same problem: building liquidity. The World Cup will eventually crown a champion, but it is also giving us something else: the clearest opportunity yet to compare how different prediction market ecosystems perform when competing on the exact same event, at the exact same time. As market makers, we know the real competition isn't predicting the winner. It's helping build liquid markets that people actually want to trade.

The same markets, but with better prices. Outcome's World Cup markets trade as tight as 0.2c. Other prediction markets sit at 1c. Tighter spread, with up to 5x better price on Outcome.

Extremely proud of what we have achieved on @HyperliquidX World Cup markets with @Outcomexyz distribution & @monarch_fast performance-based real-time MM reward infra On average, HL's World Cup match markets are 5x tighter than @Polymarket @Kalshi Better Reward Competitive Dynamics -> Better Liquidity -> Better Execution -> Better Flow = Flywheel We are progressing @HyperliquidX towards being the defacto prediction market reference venue Just like how all alternate RWA spot/perp platforms rely on @tradexyz , soon all alternate prediction markets will price off @HyperliquidX HIP-4 Onwards

Our friends at @monarch_fast is hiring for a quant developer! They are one of the top executing teams in crypto that I've seen. Monarch is a frontier markets company focused on building liquidity infrastructure and quant systems for nascent markets. Learn more about the role here. monarch.fast/careers

TLDR: @HyperliquidX Prediction Markets can be 1000x tighter than @Polymarket due to granular tick sizes For World Cup markets, Hyperliquid is routinely 2-5x tighter than PM/Kalshi for trades under $10k You are not bullish enough HIP-4

World Cup Rewards are evolving. Starting at 9am UTC today. Matches now score up to 12h before kickoff. No more wasted rewards on dead time. 5x multiplier during live games. Bigger rewards for trading during the action. New split of the daily rewards: 40% for quoting, 30% maker fills, and 30% for taker volume. Every trading style earns. xitter.gq/Outcomexyz/status/2064…