Many really good traders are also excellent writers and quick-witted. Is it just a pattern recognition thing or something else?
The people gravedancing hype are loud and gleeful. Could see them having fun for the next few weeks of underperformance as late buyers eat shit and non-sellers round trip but ultimately hype will trade at new aths and the folks chirping today will pretend they bought in 2 yrs.
Trump presidency prob ends w markets at ath. Could feel very over in mid-late 2026 but good bid opp at that time imo (esp in stocks).
Many crypto ppl already down huge and could be goblin + ghost town for next yr. I still think it’s a lucrative space for wise speculators.
There are lots of guys in finance who didn’t participate in crypto upside at all but still believe they would have made it big if only they’d been around in the 80s
Have taken a lot off the table for permanent omega life upgrades, and treating my remaining crypto balance as a “prestige mode” portfolio. Basically just btc and hype at this point.
I am too “fat” and complacent. Missed aster, xpl, and zec.
“Am I fumbling the bag or prudently preserving capital?” Maybe both.
Internal turmoil comes from being fatigued and unhealthy. Years of this have made me addicted to turbulence. Working on getting back in shape.
I used to be kinda meh on prediction mkts but ppl way smarter than me started valuing them in the billions
It seems that “betting” is the engine, but not the main revenue opportunity itself
If you had a magical realtime feed of probabilities for everything, you could build an attention superapp around it (news, advertising, entertainment, etc). Betting is an audience magnet/capture but the price feed is a product in and of itself.
Through this lens the 10/11 figure values make more sense. Thinking only in terms of the potential fee opportunity from bets is missing the forest. Unfortunately there are limited ways to get exposure rn unless you have access to secondaries etc.
Valve was fine w/ the gambling ecosystem built around their skins, but had no issue rugging holders.
Imo people are fatigued with the greed of IP originators in gaming. As speculation increases, companies will need to make traders/holders feel prioritized or they will bleed market share to those that do.
The “anti-speculation” attitude in gaming is understandable (many are sick of over-financialization), but companies will either need to build games with zero speculation or they need to treat speculators with respect. Benefitting from speculators while treating them like shit is unsustainable.
Part of me feels like the market is topped for a bit, but the other part wonders if it’s like 2013 “new normal” post gfc.
“People looking for reasons to be bearish while assets march up forever.”
Positioned to be ok in either scenario, thus guaranteeing I’ll be in pain in 100% of outcomes xD.
IMO “famous counter signals” keep yapping long after their hypothetical copy-trade portfolio would have hit zero. Eventually they are just noise.