Neel

#Bitcoin midterm election pattern. Data says the November panic during midterm elections has been the best opportunity to pick $BTC before the next parabolic move. Some indicators also show Bitcoin may have already formed a bottom near $58,000 in June and has not dropped as hard as previous midterm cycles. But no one can measure the size of any remaining panic. What matters is that if you buy the weakness with a 2–3 year view, Bitcoin has historically delivered strong returns after these periods.

The funny part is that CPI (MoM) came in at 0.4%, lower than the previous 0.6% 😂 But market react on forecast 0.3%.. Buy the dip..

Instant reaction: S&P 500 -0.73% Nasdaq 100 -1.35% Russell -0.71% $BTC dropped below $74,000 $ETH below $2100

October CPI MoM came in at 0.4%, above the 0.3% forecast. Core CPI MoM printed 0.3%, also higher than the 0.2% expected. The reason YoY numbers are missing is because of last year’s government shutdown. BLS is not publishing the year-over-year figures this time. The hotter monthly print is mostly from October’s oil spike (from ~$90 to ~$105). Oil has since dropped back toward $86, so the next few readings should look softer. Market may stay volatile in the short term on this number.

#CPI: This month’s CPI is forecast at 3.9%, higher than the previous reading of 3.7%. The main reason is that oil prices rose sharply in October, climbing from around $90 to nearly $105. As a result, this CPI print is likely to come in elevated. However, after 3 November, oil prices fell from $105 to around $86. This should lead to softer inflation readings in the coming months. The market may show short-term volatility depending on the outcome. But this number will not impact too much as OIL Trading below $86

SpaceX plans $24 billion gas power plant, data center project in Texas : Reuters Are You surprised??? I am not. This is how market run, demand will back in market.

🚀 Anthropic is officially aiming to IPO next week! : WSJ Key details to watch: - The Ticker: Trading as ANT on the Nasdaq. - The Valuation Debate: Initial whispers targeted a massive $1.5T to $2T valuation, but recent AI market volatility has bankers (Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) and investors debating a lower entry point. - What's Next: Keep an eye out for the upcoming regulatory filing, which will lock in the exact share price range and offering size.

$1.8 Trillion added in US market today S&P 500 +2.35 NAsdaq +2.74% DOW +2.25% Russell +3.16% Memory stocks bounce after last week panic sale. $MU +6.24% $SNDK +6.16% $AMD +13.2% $INTC +5.49% $WDC +9.86% $STX +10% $CRWV +5.56% $SOXX +7.52%

HEGSETH IMPEACHMENT ARTICLES INTRODUCED IN HOUSE : BBG OIL DROPPED BELOW $86, DOWN 5% TODAY

$NVDA Is it another opportunity.. I am fina till $NVDA hold $164 and taking all as opportunity..

This is huge.. my eye on $COIN

$AVAX NYSE to Settle Tokenized Stocks on Avalanche Blockchain $AVAX up 10% on news. But its one of our fav token for accumulation between $6 to $9 for 2-3 year view. #DYOR

BACK TO BACK GOOD ECONOMY NUMBER After strong job report, Michigan data shows better sentiment and lower inflation expectations. - Consumer Sentiment: 51.0 vs 48.1 expected - Consumer Expectations: 50.9 vs 49.5 expected - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 4.3% (down from 4.7%) - 5-Year Inflation Expectations: 3.4% vs 3.5% expected Consumers are feeling a bit better and short-term inflation expectations cooled. This is supportive for risk assets, especially with oil already down and jobs data still solid. Markets like lower inflation expectations and stable growth. Rest. #DYOR Follow @NeelMacro

Relief bounce in chip and memory stocks $NVDA +5.67% $MU +6% $SNDK +10% $INTC +10% $CRWV +6% $DELL +9% $SPCX +5.73%

🚨US jobs data came in much stronger than expected. - Nonfarm Payrolls: 165K vs 65K expected - Unemployment Rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% expected - Average Hourly Earnings: +0.4% vs +0.3% expected - Private Payrolls: 159K vs 64K expected The labor market is still holding up. Job growth beat forecasts by a wide margin and unemployment ticked lower. Wage growth is a bit hot, but nothing extreme. For markets, this is a positive print. Strong jobs reduce recession fears. With oil already down sharply after the midterms, the combination is better for equities and crypto than a weak report would have been. The only caution is that hotter wages can keep the Fed from turning too dovish. But the market is more focused on growth right now than on one rate cut. Rest. #DYOR Follow @NeelMacro

🚨YESTERDAY’S PANIC - MY HONEST TAKE. There’s a really interesting theory that the market doesn’t talk about much. I think you probably already know it, but most people don’t look at it that way. Still, let me share it with you. The market is mostly run by two parties. I believe the market is built to go up, and the two parties are Politicians and Corporates. Everyone knows this. Right now in the US, there was one AI lobby that was pumping the entire market hard. They were pumping it properly, and Trump was fully supporting it. Money was flowing in from all over the world through the capex model. Then the midterms happened, and a third party entered. When a third party comes in, what happens is that the AI lobby doesn’t just ignore them. They will also try to bring that party into their confidence. A minister from that side starts making noise, saying they’ll ban advanced AI or won’t let anything happen. Americans won’t actually do it — it’s just a threat. They’re basically telling the AI lobby, “We’re also here now, so bring us into your confidence too.” Everyone wants their share in the market. So the AI lobby will now talk to them, hold meetings, and work things out behind the scenes. That part never comes out in the open. Once they become partners, the corporate lobby does what it always does. If you look at history, it doesn’t matter which political party comes to power — Republican or Democrat. After every midterm election, in the last 50 years of data, the market has given positive returns in the next 6 months. 21 out of 21 times. (xitter.gq/NeelMacro/status/21146…) That’s why these corrections happen around midterms. The market creates fear, then converts into positive returns six months later. It’s simple. The Democrats are now saying, “We’re also in the game. You can’t just bypass us like you did for the last two years.” Talks will happen, the market will rebuild support, and it will recover. If you look at fundamentals, what has actually changed? Nothing. In 2022, the market fell 36% mainly because the Fed raised rates from 0% to 5%. Nothing like that has happened this time. Rates are still the same. At most, a 25 basis point hike in December — everyone already knows that. No surprise. No big change in data either. Only the midterm election changed. So this is a normal correction. Think of it like when Trump came in and put tariffs. Market fell roughly 26% from TAH in April 2025. Then on the 9th April he said he was postponing the tariffs for 6 months, and the market did a straight U-turn and made new all-time highs. Same thing is happening now. Nasdaq 100 is down about 16% from all-time highs. In a bull run, 15–25% pullbacks are normal. From there, we usually get a recovery. As for crypto, I think this is actually good. Bitcoin is testing support. If you remember 2023, Bitcoin tested $25,000 for six months and then went straight to $126,000. Same idea here. Bitcoin is fine. It can test $75,000 multiple times, even check WMA 200 at $67,000 too. The support it builds over the next few months will show its return in 2028, when the market breaks out properly. We saw it go from $57k straight to $88k without giving people a chance to buy. Now it’s back near $75k, checking support. The market will watch how it holds for the next few weeks or months, then bounce. That bounce will be healthier. This is just how the market works. Short-term traders will get stuck. If you take a 2-year view, the money becomes easier. There are many good project apart from $BTC — $UNI, $NEAR, $LDO, $INJ, $LINK, $AERO, $CRV, $AVEX, and several other solid protocols. Keep accumulating in those, plus $ETH , $Sol, and $Sui. This is a 2–3 year market view, and I think crypto will give good returns. One more reason is that people who sold gold still have cash sitting on the side. That money is waiting. Look at the Indian market — perfect example. For two years it gave almost no returns, and then in two week Nifty jump 10% while world market crahs hard. I think similar money can come into crypto. Right now we’re seeing weakness, but if you look at the monthly chart, it looks fine. I’m not worried. The market will do what it always does. Keep Simple three strategy. - Accumulation - Distribution - Rotation.

Nasdaq major correction in last 3 years...

$MU -13% $SNDK -17% $WDC -14% $SKHY -11% $CRWV -11% $NVDA -7%

BREAKING: MASSIVE RALLY IN INDIAN MARKET. #Sensex is 1600 point up, above up 2.15% and Nifty is up 1.97%. Reasons: 1. Oil crashed hard. WTI fell from above $100 to below $90. India imports most of its oil, so lower prices ease inflation and support the rupee. 2. US midterms. Democrats won both chambers. Markets are pricing in less risk of sudden tariff hikes and trade shocks. 3. FIIs are turning buyers again after months of selling. Falling oil and hopes of possible tax relief on capital gains are helping sentiment. 4. Strong earnings and festive demand are adding to the upside. This is not financial advice. Rest. #DYOR

Trump : "Stock Market just hit another Record High?