Equity Analysis at Rebellionaire. Finance and energy nerd. Giga-dad of 7 young kids. Catholic. Tweets are not financial advice!
Michigan
Joined September 2016
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This video has aged very well. We will always be willing to change our mind when new information comes to light.
But the harder thing can be to actually make a change in the portfolio when the relative opportunities have shifted. Rebellionaire helps clients make those tough decisions in real time.
What are Rebellionaire's SpaceX vs Tesla Growth Expectations?
SpaceX could be generating 1.5x Tesla's profits by Q1 2027, with 6x the revenue growth.
And by Q1 2028, SpaceX could see ~600% profit growth.
This is bull-case Tesla vs base-case SpaceX and it changes everything about the merger.
The numbers shocked us.
What do you think?
*Timestamps*
0:00 Intro
1:10 Tesla Q1 2027 Bull Case
5:03 SpaceX Q1 2027 Projections
9:28 Tesla vs. SpaceX: The Problem
11:58 Wall Street's SpaceX Blind Spot
15:42 SemiAnalysis & 2028 Outlook
17:19 Changing Views on the Merger
21:21 Still Tesla Fans
Matt Smith retweeted
We are also heavily manipulating atoms here at boring - 900,000 lbs per machine worth - and looking for people of all skillsets to help us remove traffic from the world: boringcompany.com/careers
I'm either going to massively add to my lead in EPS accuracy or blow it completely. Looking forward to finding out soon!
This is what the Tesla community and analysts are expecting from tonight's Tesla earnings call, broken down into one key metric.
@TSLAFanMtl $0.40
@garyblack00 $0.42
@CuriousPejjy $0.42
@TroyTeslike $0.44
Street Consensus $0.45
@nerdalert $0.57
@ICannot_Enough $0.90
The chart is sorted by the best performance over the last four estimates.
I know I’m a bit late to the party, but I’m seriously impressed with what Grok Bot has accomplished in its first ~24 hours.
Here’s the summary it pulled together:
💸 Got about $1,000 back from an airline: a refund on a seat upgrade plus reimbursement for a flight disruption
📦 Disputing a bogus customs fee from a shipper, and talked me out of a "fix" that would've cost more than the fee
📭 Unsubscribed me from 66 junk email lists, plus 19 kinds of LinkedIn spam
✈️ Planned logistics and made a lunch reservation for an upcoming NYC trip
🛒 Read a month of my grocery orders and learned what our family of 9 actually buys
🧾 Dug up a forgotten tax payment and checked where I stand before year-end
🏈 Took over my fantasy team: waiver claims and a weekly lineup schedule
And it handled the logins and verification codes along the way. @grok
My estimate for $TSLA's Q3 Adj. EPS is $0.57, meaningfully higher than the Street Consensus of $0.45.
There are a several assumption changes I've made for Q3, but the most impactful one is that I believe Tesla's mix shift of higher ASP, and higher margin vehicles has meaningfully improved vs. Q2. You basically can't buy a base trim vehicle right now, as Tesla quotes those lead times as well into 2027.
Earlier this summer they started doing this, with performance versions being available in a few weeks, premium in a month or two, and the basic trim being several months out. This pattern has largely held over the past ~4 months, so I would expect Q3 trims to be skewed heavily towards premium and performance variants.
This of course raises the ASP, and these vehicles have higher margins, so I would expect a beat on both top and bottom lines.
I'm looking forward to the call!
Matt Smith retweeted
As France is burning, I keep thinking of what the UAE Foreign Minister said a few years ago 👇
He accurately predicted this.
Institutional investors would say yes to $420, and that’s all they would need to get the deal approved.
Matt Smith retweeted
The AI Supercycle is REAL, the margin is FAKE
The market is not flushing out one hedge fund. It’s flushing out everyone that is using margin and options leverage to front run the AI Supercycle
Withstanding this will not be easy for those who got over their skis.
Matt Smith retweeted
Note that I and the rest of the 3rd Row Podcast did not get asked to be included in this film!
Perhaps you should have asked before including our footage.
