Former sportswriter and stats geek (not nerd) for @washingtonpost. I got science for any occasion. Postulating theorems, formulating equations.
Joined May 2008
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Hot Seat, Cold Math: Which NFL coaches are in trouble after Week 2? The probability every NFL head coach will be replaced before next season. Commanders Dan Quinn is not as high as you would think. At least not yet. fancystats.substack.com/p/ho…
🤖 Made with AI
Neil Greenberg retweeted
Of the 43 best-of-7 series where one team started 3-0
In Game 4: the team that started 3-0 won 33 and lost 10 (.767 win%)
In Games 5 through 7: the team that started 3-0 won 26 and lost 32 (.448 win%)
In all: 59-42, .584
We have a wild momentum / reverse-momentum at play
Neil Greenberg retweeted
Want to know a huge reason why the Wizards look good thus far? Their bench.
Here's how they rank among all bench units:
FG%: 1st (52.9)
AST-to-TO: 2nd (1.96)
3PT%: 6th (37.8)
Plus-minus: 7th (+3.8)
Scoring: 9th (40.7ppg)
This unit was DEAD LAST in +/- last year (-4.8).
Lose-lose game for the Commanders this week.
If they win it is discounted because 2-5 PHI lost five straight
If they lose they are 1-5-1 and we're still talking about firing Quinn
Cooper Kupp's 2021 season with the 12-5 Rams is widely considered one of the greatest individual wide receiver seasons in NFL history and he got 2% of the MVP vote, finished distant third.
Neil Greenberg retweeted
On this date in 1986, Bill Buckner recorded one of the most infamous errors in MLB history. 🫣
The Mets would go on to defeat Boston in Game 7 to win the World Series and the curse of the Bambino continued until 2004 for the Red Sox.
The Capitals have done a wonderful job preparing for the post-Ovechkin era.
Per @NHLPR, Tuch (10 GP) is the fastest Capitals player to record their first three multi-goal games with the franchise, besting Alex Ovechkin (11 GP in 2005-06).
Neil Greenberg retweeted
I wouldn't necessarily call it variance, but this tracks to the data I've pulled.
A team that is up 20 at the half underperforms by about 5 points in the 2nd half.
Joe Mazzulla says the Celtics analytics staff studied situations where teams led by at least 20 over the last decade.
He says that when you’re up by 20 in today’s game, not only is growing that to 30 not a realistic expectation, but due to variance, you’re really up by 15.
It will most likely shrink to 6 or 7. It comes down to how you then handle that situation.
Neil Greenberg retweeted
Stats & Scheme topic this week: Blitzing is Back:
- Defenses are blitzing more previous seasons
- Blitzing is the most effective it’s been in 5 seasons
- More defenses are playing two high + zone behind their blitzes
- Blitzes on 3rd & 7+ have been *very effective* this season
- DB + LB blitzes have been lethal for opposing offenses
Neil Greenberg retweeted
Joe Mazzulla says the Celtics analytics staff studied situations where teams led by at least 20 over the last decade.
He says that when you’re up by 20 in today’s game, not only is growing that to 30 not a realistic expectation, but due to variance, you’re really up by 15.
It will most likely shrink to 6 or 7. It comes down to how you then handle that situation.
Neil Greenberg retweeted
In what is likely to be the very first all-indoor World Series, and at two parks that have had some notable roof controversies, I am very glad to see @AdamMcCalvy & @adamdberry teamed up to explain the most important x-factor of the 2026 World Series:
mlb.com/news/ground-rules-fo…
Neil Greenberg retweeted
The World Series starts today. The AL's best team vs the NL's best team. Two fanbases that have never won before. The style of play everyone claims they are desperate to see. This is going to rock.
He explained the timing of bringing in Steve Wilks to help with defensive game planning. You’ll have to listen to hear what he said about getting similar help for the offense. (That’s a tease)
Neil Greenberg retweeted
I love this visual for how coaches think about uncertainty
Neil Greenberg retweeted
Jacob Misiorowski was asked what Pokémon energy he was bringing to #WorldSeries Game 1:
"Definitely the flame energy. What's Charizard's signature move? Fireball. Bring some fireball. I'm going to be ready."
ALT On the left side on the graphic, blue text reads “Milwaukee Brewers” in blue font against a beige background. The rest of the graphic has a dark blue background. A large heading reads “Miz” with a subheading, “Gotta strike ‘em all out!” There is a large cutout of Jacob Misiorowski pumping his fist and yelling in excitement. He wears a cream-colored Brewers uniform and blue cap.
