Politics + Government at @WashingtonPost | Pats fan. Eagle Scout. Beer pong aficionado. | signal: NickBaumann.97 | Usual disclaimers
Washington, DC
Joined December 2008
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Nick Baumann retweeted
“man i wish haley stevens would use her position to unite dems around AES!”
*monkey’s paw curls*
Nick Baumann retweeted
Stevens also told Nancy Pelosi the same thing about going to church, per person familiar
Haley Stevens told a longtime friend Saturday evening that she planned to attend a church service the next day w/ Abdul El-Sayed. She even texted the friend, a senior Democrat, the church’s address.
More here w/ @ktumulty, @lizcgoodwin & @ErinatThePost: washingtonpost.com/politics/…
Nick Baumann retweeted
NEW
Former Michigan Governor Jim Blanchard — a longtime friend and supporter of Haley Stevens — says he was having dinner on Friday with Stevens and her fiancé, and that Stevens was excited to attend the church service with Jim Clyburn and Abdul El-Sayed.
Blanchard said that Stevens’ fiancé, Jason Turkish, began chiding her at the dinner.
“He was working her over. The way he was saying it was, ‘Everyone is disappointed in you, they did everything they could to help you and then immediately after you lose the primary, you endorsed him.’”
“He was all distraught,” he said.
“He was all strung out about Abdul. I let her know, he’s not a good influence.”
Blanchard remained in touch with Stevens throughout the weekend and expected her to attend the church service. He only found out from the news that she was at the service with Rogers and endorsing him.
“Something snapped in her. And it snapped in 24 hours,” Blanchard told Zach Gorchow of State Affairs.
“And I don’t know what.”
Blanchard, clearly pained by the situation, said several times, “This is not the Haley I know.”
He lamented Turkish’s “terrible political judgment.”
Full Story: bit.ly/3UV80b7
Nick Baumann retweeted
NEWS: Roger Marshall goes rogue.
The inside story of how an embattled Kansas Republican wanted an ad to push back on medical debt attacks, was told no by his team, made one anyway without knowledge of some advisers and got it out into the world.
nytimes.com/2026/11/01/us/el…
Nick Baumann retweeted
Rep. Haley Stevens has lost access to VAN, Michigan Democrats' voter database, sources tell The Detroit News.
Her photo has also been removed from the party's website.
Nick Baumann retweeted
Daniel Radcliffe and Tracy Morgan recreate the scene between Nathan Fielder and Elizabeth Holmes for ‘The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins.’
Nick Baumann retweeted
As you'll see, I'm not dismissive of the impact of this, but one thing I'd note is that Michigan has among the fewest undecideds of any Senate race.
Nick Baumann retweeted
This is the operative frame for viewing tomorrow's Senate results--given the terrain, just an incredibly fine line between a goal line stand and a blowout, with less turf than usual in between.
Nick Baumann retweeted
It's amazing that this is literally the first Democratic politician I've ever seen do this.
I walked the Trump rally line to listen, not make assumptions. I talked with voters, asked questions and heard what matters to them.
When I'm elected, I'll represent all 82 counties and every Mississippian, no matter who they voted for. That's what being your senator means. #MississippiMatters
Nick Baumann retweeted
When the AP called the House in the last 4 cycles:
2018: Wednesday at 3am ET
2020: 7 days after Election Day
2022: 8 days after Election Day
2024: 8 days after Election Day
Nick Baumann retweeted
Buccaneers beat Atlanta 16-0 without completing a pass.
They are the first NFL team since the 1974 Buffalo Bills to win a game without completing a pass.
Nick Baumann retweeted
The only thing I'd add is that a rejection of Republicans doesn't necessarily entail D+11 and seven Senate seats. That would be a mega-tsunami the likes of which we haven't seen in decades.
Here’s how to maintain a zen state as you process everything that comes across your transom between now and Tuesday:
1. It will be the least surprising thing in the world if the polls are wrong and Democrats have a disappointing night.
2. That said, all of the actual evidence points to a very good night for Dems. There is basically no hard evidence that favors Rs—and Republicans are clearly seeing the same thing as evidenced by their spending patterns and the vibes emanating from GOP campaigns and committees.
3. The electoral data lines up with other data, portraying a coherent story of the electorate. When you see a surprisingly good poll result for Democrats and you wonder “how could this be?,” all you have to do is look at the economic indicators.
4. All caveats about analyzing the early vote apply, but one conclusion we can draw is that Republicans will need extremely strong turnout on election day to hold down their losses. It could happen—see #1. But per #2, you’d be hard pressed to find any hard evidence that there’s some pent up enthusiasm among GOP voters waiting to be unleashed on Tuesday.
5. Repeat #1
Repeat these five steps like a mantra every time you’re trying to process some new tidbit and you’ll be in a state of peace—at least until the results start rolling in.
Nick Baumann retweeted
As I explain in this piece, Stevens staff was there at the Clyburn event waiting for her to arrive when they found out she'd shown up at the Rogers event.
As I report here ...
- Stevens told numerous high profile Dems last night she was voting for AES
- staff was literally waiting at the unity rally thinking she was about to arrive
- even key Dems who are similarly skeptical of AES are baffled and aghast
talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog…
Nick Baumann retweeted
I know @HaleyforMI way better than most people on X. She and I came into Congress together in 2018. She was co-Prez of our freshman class. She was incredibly kind to me when my late partner died; she organized a big group of our class to come to the House floor to support me when I spoke about his suicide. We were roommates in 2023, after my wonderful first roomie lost her election; both my adult kids know Haley well and are on a texting basis with her. We’ve socialized and we have good friends in common. While she and I differ on one impt issue, specifically Israel and AIPAC support, I’ve never publicly challenged her on those things, because I felt that her good points outweighed the issues I disagreed with her on. Today, that changes. 👇
Haley’s endorsement of Rogers in the MI senate race is appalling. Not because he’s a Republican, but because what he stands for is what she, and I, and our caucus has fought so hard against. Rogers is a 100% anti-choice politician. He is a Trump loyalist. He’s shown his Islamophobia in his many remarks against @AbdulElSayed, and with this endorsement, Haley has shown that she agrees with his positions. I’m shocked by Haley’s endorsement. I’m terribly sad and disappointed. I’m furious and will be more so if we lose the MI senate race. So many people in the Democratic Party have shown so much support to Haley over the years, and she has betrayed them all. If this is because of her new relationship (about which many of us were so happy for her after she lost the primary), all I can say is that any woman who abandons her friends when a new guy comes along is no friend at all. The fallout for Haley won’t just be in Dem politics; she will be a pariah among her friends in the Democratic caucus in Congress. Only she will be able to decide whether it was worth it.
Nick Baumann retweeted
By my count, there are 9 Senate races within 4 points in polling averages. That means there’s a very small distance between an amazing night for Democrats and a crushing disappointment for them. Calibrate your expectations accordingly.
