overjumped

Bump..🙈🤮 Inevitable CR @ $LTR; writing was on the wall, only potential short-term savior was lith price

Still liking North Sea cohort.. $HBR.l Harbour trades a smidge under £3/sh (£4.5b / US$6.0b) * 2026 guide to 30% FCF yield and 13% SH return, assumptions allow for upside surprise here.. * Indebted yes (~50/50), but producing and flowing cash.. with no ambiguity about where it's headed (financiers, debt & equity) * Large 500kboe/d production base, w. ~70% going to the energy-challenged europoors * Buying back shares daily.. able to buy directly from BASF, reducing overhang

Still liking North Sea cohort.. $HBR.l Harbour trades a smidge under £3/sh (£4.5b / US$6.0b) * 2026 guide to 30% FCF yield and 13% SH return, assumptions allow for upside surprise here.. * Indebted yes (~50/50), but producing and flowing cash.. with no ambiguity about where it's headed (financiers, debt & equity) * Large 500kboe/d production base, w. ~70% going to the energy-challenged europoors * Buying back shares daily.. able to buy directly from BASF, reducing overhang

Journeying across the Atlantic.. and North Sea oil & gas producers aren't getting much love either. At $90/bbl Brent: $EQNR: ~760mmboe (2081mboe/d) at ~$60/boe cash operating margin * Implies ~$45b EBITDA at $90b MC / $110m EV $AKRBP.ol: ~140mmboe (385mboe/d) at ~$75/boe cash operating margin * Implies ~$10b EBITDA at $22b MC / $28b EV $VAR.ol: ~146mmboe (400mboe/d) at ~$70/boe cash operating margin * Implies ~$10b EBITDA at $11b MC / $16b EV $HBR.l: ~180mmboe (490mboe/d) at ~$50/boe cash operating margin * Implies ~$9b EBITDA at $6b MC / $13b EV Yes, each will lose a chunk of this converting to FCF... with varying degrees of capex, decommissioning costs, tax... but this is trimming fat off a healthy starting margin.

Some recent analysis on select retailers across AU/NZ, for anyone who is curious. Been buying $WHS.nz, but difficult to invest in NZX companies as a non-resi.. so haven't really spoken much about this here (did do a s/s write-up if curious). They report tomorrow, which is why I made this... rather than wasting away on my hard drive, figured it may be helpful or of interest to others also 🫡🫡 $KMD.ax / $JBH.ax / $KGN.ax / $HVN.ax / $SUL.ax / $CCX.ax / $MYR.ax / $PMV.ax / $ADH.ax

$MEK.ax / Long-form piece I wrote on Meeka in early-August, following the thread below, but didn't get to post before some things came up.. overjumped.substack.com/p/me… Wanted to elaborate without the confines of character limits. Ended up writing far too many words for something I don't own… such is life of a DD nerd I guess. This is very high-risk, but I can see a pathway to: * In FY27, averaging ~A$250/t margins on ~600ktpa ($150m) * In FY28, averaging ~A$350/t margins on ~600ktpa ($210m) BUT, this relies on: * Ramping up Turnberry without a hitch * Reaching required mining rates at Andy Well w/o sacrificing grade * Controlling mining costs within a reasonable range There's been some developments since I originally wrote this.. gold px, share px, Mt Holland acq. As a result, I was deliberating whether to still post this or not... I figure it may be useful to some of you, so have at it folks 💙

$MOON $ELMT $EQR Blue Moon, Elmet, and EQ Resources team up on $150-175M Springer Tungsten Complex deal in Nevada — Elmet putting in ~$150M total, plus $25M standby with EQ — New JV owns the APT plant, Elmet 70%, Blue Moon 20%, EQ 10% — Elmet also getting a board seat at Blue Moon — Mine/mill targeting Q4 2027 restart, APT plant 2H 2028 — Part of the $450M DoW tungsten initiative announced same day Whole tungsten supply chain getting rebuilt domestically piece by piece Not financial advice.