$ADBE closed at 290 yesterday, i got it right before the open at 275 ish.
i received some dm to ask if i was still holding. guys, of course i am holding on it, read the post, the thesis is mid term at least, and i am looking for a +100% at least on this one so i won't start thinking about exiting the position before we get to 500/share
going long $ADBE mid term horizon.
not a trade -> a thesis.
the stock sits around 276. that is roughly 34% below its 200 WMA. for a business like this it almost never happens.
so i looked at what broke.
last quarter revenue was 6.62b, up 12.7%. eps beat. net margin near 30%. return on equity 65%. they raised full year guidance.
nothing in the numbers is broken.
what broke is the story. the market decided ai kills creative software. canva, figma, image models, pick your reason. morgan stanley cut it to underweight this month.
and the funds left. last quarter more of them cut than added. fisher dumped almost the whole position. norges trimmed. the people who wanted out are already out.
that is the setup i like. good numbers, bad narrative, empty positioning.
adobe is a cash machine. massive free cash flow. they buy back stock every quarter. share count keeps going down. you get paid to wait.
at low teens forward earnings you are not paying for growth. you are paying for the company to still exist in five years. i think it will.
the moat is not the ui. anyone can ship a nice ui now. the moat is the file formats, the plugins, the team workflows, the twenty year old muscle memory of every creative pro on earth. that stuff moves slow.
management is changing too. new cfo. i want to see what they do with pricing.
the risk is simple and i take it seriously. if firefly does not land and they keep giving tools away for free, cheap gets cheaper. that is the bear case and it is not stupid.
earnings on september 10. options price around a 10% move.
i am sized for that. not all in.
well, i was not expecting to be right that fast, what a good timing again
going long $ADBE mid term horizon.
not a trade -> a thesis.
the stock sits around 276. that is roughly 34% below its 200 WMA. for a business like this it almost never happens.
so i looked at what broke.
last quarter revenue was 6.62b, up 12.7%. eps beat. net margin near 30%. return on equity 65%. they raised full year guidance.
nothing in the numbers is broken.
what broke is the story. the market decided ai kills creative software. canva, figma, image models, pick your reason. morgan stanley cut it to underweight this month.
and the funds left. last quarter more of them cut than added. fisher dumped almost the whole position. norges trimmed. the people who wanted out are already out.
that is the setup i like. good numbers, bad narrative, empty positioning.
adobe is a cash machine. massive free cash flow. they buy back stock every quarter. share count keeps going down. you get paid to wait.
at low teens forward earnings you are not paying for growth. you are paying for the company to still exist in five years. i think it will.
the moat is not the ui. anyone can ship a nice ui now. the moat is the file formats, the plugins, the team workflows, the twenty year old muscle memory of every creative pro on earth. that stuff moves slow.
management is changing too. new cfo. i want to see what they do with pricing.
the risk is simple and i take it seriously. if firefly does not land and they keep giving tools away for free, cheap gets cheaper. that is the bear case and it is not stupid.
earnings on september 10. options price around a 10% move.
i am sized for that. not all in.
going long $ADBE mid term horizon.
not a trade -> a thesis.
the stock sits around 276. that is roughly 34% below its 200 WMA. for a business like this it almost never happens.
so i looked at what broke.
last quarter revenue was 6.62b, up 12.7%. eps beat. net margin near 30%. return on equity 65%. they raised full year guidance.
nothing in the numbers is broken.
what broke is the story. the market decided ai kills creative software. canva, figma, image models, pick your reason. morgan stanley cut it to underweight this month.
and the funds left. last quarter more of them cut than added. fisher dumped almost the whole position. norges trimmed. the people who wanted out are already out.
that is the setup i like. good numbers, bad narrative, empty positioning.
adobe is a cash machine. massive free cash flow. they buy back stock every quarter. share count keeps going down. you get paid to wait.
at low teens forward earnings you are not paying for growth. you are paying for the company to still exist in five years. i think it will.
the moat is not the ui. anyone can ship a nice ui now. the moat is the file formats, the plugins, the team workflows, the twenty year old muscle memory of every creative pro on earth. that stuff moves slow.
management is changing too. new cfo. i want to see what they do with pricing.
the risk is simple and i take it seriously. if firefly does not land and they keep giving tools away for free, cheap gets cheaper. that is the bear case and it is not stupid.
earnings on september 10. options price around a 10% move.
i am sized for that. not all in.
alibaba $BABA just banned its own staff from using claude code.
from july 10, BABA employees can't touch anthropic's coding tool at work, over what alibaba calls embedded backdoor risks. they're told to use qoder, alibaba's own tool instead.
the backstory: last month anthropic accused alibaba's qwen team of copying claude, calling it the biggest attack of its kind. now alibaba swings back. the US and china are unplugging their AI from each other.
the ban itself is symbolic, not financial, BABA barely moved. but it feeds the real story: china goes all in on its own stack.
who wins that shift: qwen (owned by alibaba), baidu ($BIDU) with ernie, tencent ($TCEHY) with hunyuan, plus the private labs deepseek
people need to look at the chines market more in depth..
$GENB is the closest thing to buying early Moderna again, same lab, same people, same machine.
it was built by flagship pioneering, the exact venture firm that created moderna.
noubar afeyan, the man who co founded and chairs moderna, is also the chairman and a big backer here.
stéphane bancel, moderna's founding ceo, sits on the board too.
so does frances arnold, who won a nobel prize for engineering proteins, which is literally what this company does.
they use generative AI to design brand new drugs from scratch, turning discovery from a game of chance into engineering.
NVDA already put money in, its venture arm backed the round alongside amgen.
amgen went further and signed a multi target partnership to build drugs on the platform.
the money behind it is serious, abu dhabi's sovereign fund, fidelity and t rowe all in.
it IPO'd in february, raised 400m, and holds years of cash to run.
17 programs in the pipeline, the first ones already moving into human trials.
one honest flag, it is pre revenue and clinical stage, so the trials have to work or the story breaks, this is high risk.
but if the platform delivers, you are early on the next moderna, backed by NVDA and the people who built the first one.
everybody chased RTX and NOC this year. $LMT got left behind, down almost 20% in three months. that is the setup, not the problem.
now look what is piling up.
golden dome. trump's missile shield over america, and $LMT is already building the prototypes. this is a decade of work, not a headline.
the money is real too. trump is asking for a 1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027, up from around 900bn. $LMT already sits on a 194bn backlog.
and the contracts keep landing. 35bn to quadruple THAAD production, 8.4bn more on precision strike missiles, another 10bn across F-35, helicopters and interceptors. the iran war emptied the munitions shelves and the pentagon is now paying to refill them. even GM is making weapons parts for them now.
here is the juicy part. the brokerage account in trump's own name was buying $LMT during the iran war, next to chevron and exxon. it is written in his own financial disclosure.
one honest flag. $LMT lagged every peer for a year and took a 1.6bn charge on a botched program in 2025. execution has not been clean, and the only real customer is the us government.
still trades at 18x while RTX runs. the cheapest way to own the biggest weapons maker on earth, right before the money shows up.
nobody cared about $NOK for ten years. now too much is happening to ignore it.
NVDA came in as a shareholder, 1bn at 6 dollars, and they build AI-RAN together. on top of that they work with AWS and NVDA on network automation, real AI going into the network, not a slide.
Trump named them last week in the us chip packaging push.
defense is a new leg too. they are building counter-drone capability with the finnish border guard. secure infrastructure is turning into a real line, not a story.
and the numbers back it. AI/cloud revenue +49%, guidance raised, insiders buying with their own money, net cash on the balance sheet.
one honest flag: FMR (fidelity) just dropped below 5% voting rights, so a big holder is selling into this and the stock has been volatile. retail is treating the dip as the entry.
not cheap here anymore. but this is not the same company it was
Basic economics, Netherlands and Germany are richer than Morocco and Paraguay.
It’s easier to get a German to pay 30k to watch a football game than a Moroccan
I keep getting ads for product I already have (ex: @Revolut is blasting ads 10times a day tho I already have a ultra subscription for years now). How come no one solved this? Is it an issue from the company marketing campaigns, or is it the ads provider trying to inflate its revenue?
I see a lot of big accounts promoting biotech companies based on insider trading info etc.
If you’re not a professional of the field, believe me, biotech is out of touch.
DYOR
Finally all that money than went into crypto is coming back to the trad market!
Let the fun begin, one last dance before the crash